Wednesday, 29 May 2019

Should Plaid consider standing aside in Brecon and Radnorshire.

The European Elections are over but clearly the Brexit Party may well not a flash in the Pan and in a weeks time it may well have its first Member of Parliament as Political Betting point out.
"When earlier in the year Peterborough’s former MP was jailed over a speeding points issue a recall petition was initiated which ended with her losing her seat. The campaign to secure the requisite 10% of voters was backed by both the Tories and LAB and the total required was surmounted by a big margin.The by-election takes place a week on Thursday and this has the possible rarity of being in a seat which flips between CON and LAB with majorities in the hundreds. Unlike most recent Westminster by-elections this is a tight marginal.Also after the Euros result yesterday it looks ideal territory for Farage’s Brexit Party. Given the way the two “main” parties are perceived at the moment on Betfair TBP is rated as a 77% chance to succeed.Although the LDs do hold a few council seats in the city this does not look like obvious territory for them although they are campaigning hard on their opposition to Brexit. ChangeUK is giving this one a miss. The LDs main hopes are pinned on the recall petition currently under way in Brecon and Radnor – a seat they held until GE2015.With two elections so close to each other my guess is that turnout will be right down even below last Thursday. You can see voters there being election weary especially when faced with fifteen candidates on the ballot paper.

Peterborough (East of England) result:

Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)

It should be noted that the vote splits from last Thursday’s election above are for the borough which is wider than the parliamentary constituency".

Obviously it would have been too soon for any party to pull out in favour of a Remain  party and it would probably have been the Greens who would make the sacrifice anyway and there quite a list of candidates

ConservativePaul Bristow
LabourLisa Forbes
English DemocratStephen Goldspink
BrexitMike Greene
Monster Raving LoonyAlan 'Howling Laud' Hope
UK EU PartyPierre Kirk
No descriptionAndrew Moore
SDPPatrick O'Flynn
Common GoodDick Rodgers
Christian PeoplesTom Rogers
Liberal DemocratBeki Sellick
No descriptionBobby Smith
RenewPeter Ward
GreenJoseph Wells
UKIPJohn Whitby

But there's likely to be another byelection soon in Brecon and Radnorshire

Clearly the Lib Dems should be the favourites  to take the seat 
General Election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire[9]
ConservativeChristopher Davies20,08148.6+7.5
Liberal DemocratJames Gibson-Watt12,04329.1+0.8
LabourDan Lodge7,33517.7+3.0
Plaid CymruKate Heneghan1,2993.1-1.3
UKIPPeter Gilbert5761.4-6.9
Registered electors56,010
Conservative holdSwing+3.4
they also hold the equivalent  Assembly seat

or were before Farage's Party (or  rather limited company )  entered the scene

The Powys result which contains Brecon and Radnorshire in the European election was 

  • Brexit Party: 14,932  35.3%
  • Lib Dems:10,069 23.8%
  • Plaid Cymru: 5.177 12.2%
  • Conservative Party: 3,818 ,9%
  • Labour: 3,199  7.3%
  • Green Party: 2,962 7%
  • Ukip: 1,384  3.3%
  • Change UK: 822 1.9%
Considering Labour and Conservatives  will not withdraw a Plald and Green decision to stand aside  in favour of a Remain Liberal Democrat might stop the seat falling to Farage's limited company.

Whereas the Greens might do so  and claim  the higher ground though in reality it may be for  for financial reasons.

Plaid however face the dilemma of standing aside in favour of a Lib Dem gian and face that party rather than being grateful claiming they are having a revival in Wales  and pointing to the Ceredigion seat as their next gain.

Peterborough  will be a test.  If it is a victory for Farage then Brecon and Radnorshire may well be next .

Which is best for Wales Farage's limited company  or the the Liberal Democrats ?


Anonymous said...

This all assumes there is a recall election. In Peterborough both large parties, Tories and Labour called for a vote. In B&R only one of the two large parties in the constituency is calling for a vote. In Peterborough the MP lied and was convicted. In B&R the MP admitted his wrongdoing and did not receive a jail sentence. There are six locations across a large geographical area where people can sign the recall petition that is open office hours on weekdays except Wednesday when the offices have been opened until 8 o'clock in the evening. I think the result of the recall could be very different.

Anonymous said...

The latest reports from Peterborough suggest that what everyone thought was going to be a straight fight between Labour and Tories has now been morphed into something that looks like a TBP coronation. Even Farage has been caught by surprise. If he thought he had been in with the chance of a win there is no doubt he would have stood. It could well be that even Liberal supporters will now think again about calling for a byelection which could given even momentum to The Brexit Party.