The European Elections are over but clearly the Brexit Party may well not a flash in the Pan and in a weeks time it may well have its first Member of Parliament as Political Betting point out.
Obviously it would have been too soon for any party to pull out in favour of a Remain party and it would probably have been the Greens who would make the sacrifice anyway and there quite a list of candidates
"When earlier in the year Peterborough’s former MP was jailed over a speeding points issue a recall petition was initiated which ended with her losing her seat. The campaign to secure the requisite 10% of voters was backed by both the Tories and LAB and the total required was surmounted by a big margin.The by-election takes place a week on Thursday and this has the possible rarity of being in a seat which flips between CON and LAB with majorities in the hundreds. Unlike most recent Westminster by-elections this is a tight marginal.Also after the Euros result yesterday it looks ideal territory for Farage’s Brexit Party. Given the way the two “main” parties are perceived at the moment on Betfair TBP is rated as a 77% chance to succeed.Although the LDs do hold a few council seats in the city this does not look like obvious territory for them although they are campaigning hard on their opposition to Brexit. ChangeUK is giving this one a miss. The LDs main hopes are pinned on the recall petition currently under way in Brecon and Radnor – a seat they held until GE2015.With two elections so close to each other my guess is that turnout will be right down even below last Thursday. You can see voters there being election weary especially when faced with fifteen candidates on the ballot paper.
Peterborough (East of England) result:
Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
It should be noted that the vote splits from last Thursday’s election above are for the borough which is wider than the parliamentary constituency".
| Party | Candidate | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Paul Bristow | |
| Labour | Lisa Forbes | |
| English Democrat | Stephen Goldspink | |
| Brexit | Mike Greene | |
| Monster Raving Loony | Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope | |
| UK EU Party | Pierre Kirk | |
| No description | Andrew Moore | |
| SDP | Patrick O'Flynn | |
| Common Good | Dick Rodgers | |
| Christian Peoples | Tom Rogers | |
| Liberal Democrat | Beki Sellick | |
| No description | Bobby Smith | |
| Renew | Peter Ward | |
| Green | Joseph Wells | |
| UKIP | John Whitby | |
But there's likely to be another byelection soon in Brecon and Radnorshire
Clearly the Lib Dems should be the favourites to take the seat
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Christopher Davies | 20,081 | 48.6 | +7.5 | |
| Liberal Democrat | James Gibson-Watt | 12,043 | 29.1 | +0.8 | |
| Labour | Dan Lodge | 7,335 | 17.7 | +3.0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | Kate Heneghan | 1,299 | 3.1 | -1.3 | |
| UKIP | Peter Gilbert | 576 | 1.4 | -6.9 | |
| Majority | 8,038 | 19.5 | +6.7 | ||
| Turnout | 41,334 | 76.9 | +3.1 | ||
| Registered electors | 56,010 | ||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | +3.4 | |||
they also hold the equivalent Assembly seat
or were before Farage's Party (or rather limited company ) entered the scene
The Powys result which contains Brecon and Radnorshire in the European election was
Whereas the Greens might do so and claim the higher ground though in reality it may be for for financial reasons.
Plaid however face the dilemma of standing aside in favour of a Lib Dem gian and face that party rather than being grateful claiming they are having a revival in Wales and pointing to the Ceredigion seat as their next gain.
Peterborough will be a test. If it is a victory for Farage then Brecon and Radnorshire may well be next .
Which is best for Wales Farage's limited company or the the Liberal Democrats ?
or were before Farage's Party (or rather limited company ) entered the scene
The Powys result which contains Brecon and Radnorshire in the European election was
- Brexit Party: 14,932 35.3%
- Lib Dems:10,069 23.8%
- Plaid Cymru: 5.177 12.2%
- Conservative Party: 3,818 ,9%
- Labour: 3,199 7.3%
- Green Party: 2,962 7%
- Ukip: 1,384 3.3%
- Change UK: 822 1.9%
Whereas the Greens might do so and claim the higher ground though in reality it may be for for financial reasons.
Plaid however face the dilemma of standing aside in favour of a Lib Dem gian and face that party rather than being grateful claiming they are having a revival in Wales and pointing to the Ceredigion seat as their next gain.
Peterborough will be a test. If it is a victory for Farage then Brecon and Radnorshire may well be next .
Which is best for Wales Farage's limited company or the the Liberal Democrats ?
2 comments:
This all assumes there is a recall election. In Peterborough both large parties, Tories and Labour called for a vote. In B&R only one of the two large parties in the constituency is calling for a vote. In Peterborough the MP lied and was convicted. In B&R the MP admitted his wrongdoing and did not receive a jail sentence. There are six locations across a large geographical area where people can sign the recall petition that is open office hours on weekdays except Wednesday when the offices have been opened until 8 o'clock in the evening. I think the result of the recall could be very different.
The latest reports from Peterborough suggest that what everyone thought was going to be a straight fight between Labour and Tories has now been morphed into something that looks like a TBP coronation. Even Farage has been caught by surprise. If he thought he had been in with the chance of a win there is no doubt he would have stood. It could well be that even Liberal supporters will now think again about calling for a byelection which could given even momentum to The Brexit Party.
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