Friday, 31 May 2019

Leave Parties may work together, but no electoral pact is possible.

In what is an extraordinary poll, the prospect of a snap General Election seems very unlikely, whereas some kind of Brexit conformation referendum  must surely have risen.

The you gov poll has  given us these numbers

LD 24%
BXP 22%
LAB 19%
CON 19%

Political Betting tell us that.
As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%.This has simply not happened before in the history of polling. It is totally unprecedented for neither of the two major parties currently forming the government and the opposition to perform so poorly. Clearly the uncertainty of the Brexit is taking a major toll on the way voters are looking at politics.It should be noted that the the pollster, YouGov, was one of just two that got the order right ahead of last week’s euro elections.Whether these positions will be sustained or indeed seen by other firms we shall have to wait and see but there is little doubt that we are going through some very turbulent times.The two parties at the top in this poll, of course, are the ones which have the clearest view on the big issue of the day Brexit. For the Lib Dems this is its best polling position since the peak of Cleggmania ahead of the 2010 general election.This all makes next week’s parliamentary by-election in Peterborough even more interesting. This has been a seat that has flipped between Labour and the Conservatives and could it be that the same thing that is happening in the polls be seen there with good results for the Brexit party and the Lib Dems? Could neither LAB nor CON make the top 2?
How much this relates to Plaid Cymru leader  call for Remain-supporting parties to discuss working together in a snap general election or second EU referendum, is a Moot point
Adam Price has written to the Liberal Democrats, Green Party, Change UK and the SNP.
He said they should work together for "as long as necessary" to deliver another vote on EU membership.
"With the Brexit Party having won the highest number of seats, there is now a grave risk that the result will be used to justify a no-deal Brexit," Mr Price said.
"I am particularly concerned that it will be used to influence the candidates running to become the next leader of the Conservative Party."
He described an "urgent need" for the parties to work together to "ensure that all the nations of these islands are not dragged headfirst towards a no deal Brexit for which there is no mandate".
Mr Price added: "We are passionately pro-European parties who believe that our nations' rightful place is at the heart of Europe.
"We must not let the politics of the Brexit Party
divide us as we seek to maintain our nations' place in Europe."
 Mr Price invited fellow leaders to meet him for an "initial, exploratory" discussion.A Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesman said the party was always happy to discuss ways of achieving "our common aims".
He added:
 "Since June 2016, Liberal Democrats have led efforts in Parliament to secure a people's vote, and this has included work with other parties with varying degrees of success.
"We've done this because Remainers expect us to work together where necessary to deliver a People's Vote."
Personally I think the SNP have led the opposition to Brexit but there you go .  Though it indicated the problem of the task ahead  as Parties look at any coalition largely how it will benefit them in the long run.
Change UK MP Chris Leslie said the party remains ready to continue working with other parties, including Plaid, to "prevent a disastrous no-deal Brexit".
He added that Change UK has "already engaged in an unprecedented level of cross-party cooperation since we formed".
The Green Party and the SNP have been asked to comment
I doubt very much if an electoral pacr is possible .

For a start the SNP will want to win as many seats as possible in Scotland and might be even aiming for a clean Sweep of Scottish constituencies  nd the Liberal Democrats with four in Scotlan at the moment are unlikely to wish to be restricted.

In Wales there are very few seats at the moment, that the Liberal Democrats  (though it may change) could  gain even with a pact and Ceredigion (which Plaid hold) is thier main target seat for the next election.

It is of course in England that a pact between the Greens , Liberal Democrats  and Change may make some kind of pact but even then would it make a difference/

In 1983 the  massive increase of support for the Alliance at the expense of Labour meant that, in many seats, the collapse in the Labour vote allowed the Conservatives to gain. Despite winning over 25% of the national vote, ( 7,794,77 to Labours 8,456,934)  he Alliance got fewer than 4% of seats, 186 fewer than Labour.

Of course the current Polls indicate a difference and a General Election in which Farage's Brexit Party Limited Company could throw a spanner in the works.

A second referendum in which there is a vote to Remain will of course see Farage's Party also Remaining .

Could Corbyn and whoever becomes Tory leader be banking on a Second Referendum that sees us voting to Leave again as a way to defeat both a Remain coalition (however loose) and the threat of Farage.


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