Thursday, 2 May 2019

Could George Galloway pull of another by election shock for Brexit Party?

So we have an historic moment  in UK political History  when for the the first time in British politics a sitting MP has been removed by their constituents A Recall Petition which closed today (Wednesday) was signed by 19,261 of her constituents, passing the 10 per cent threshold needed to trigger a by-election.

With 27.64 per cent of eligible voters signing the petition. Sixty two signatures were rejected.

Ms Onasanya sparked outrage after she refused to step down following her conviction in December for perverting the course of justice.
A jury unanimously convicted the MP of lying about who was driving her car when it was caught speeding in Thorney in July 2017.
She was sentenced to three months in prison for the crime but only served four weeks before being released on licence.
Peterborough was one of 30 net gains by the Labour in 2017 in like Newport  West is a Two Way marginal

General Election 2017: Peterborough[73]
LabourFiona Onasanya22,95048.1+12.5
ConservativeStewart Jackson22,34346.8+7.1
Liberal DemocratBeki Sellick1,5973.3−0.4
GreenFiona Radić8481.8-0.8
Labour gain from ConservativeSwing+2.7
General Election 2015: Peterborough[74]
ConservativeStewart Jackson18,68439.7-0.7
LabourLisa Forbes16,75935.6+6.1
UKIPMary Herdman7,48515.9+9.2
Liberal DemocratDarren Fower1,7743.8-15.9
GreenDarren Bisby-Boyd1,2182.6+1.4
LiberalChris Ash6391.4N/A
IndependentJohn Fox5161.1N/A
Conservative holdSwing-3.4
General Election 2010: Peterborough[75]
ConservativeStewart Jackson18,13340.4-2.9
LabourEd Murphy13,27229.5-4.8
Liberal DemocratNick Sandford8,81619.6+2.9
UKIPFrances Fox3,0076.7+3.5
English DemocratRob King7701.7N/A
GreenFiona Radic5231.2N/A
IndependentJohn Swallow4060.9N/A
Conservative holdSwing+0.95

Though neither party is  probably releshing the Byelection we may get some indication on Thursday where one third of the council is up for election 

The Conservatives currently hold 31 of 60 wards, more than double Labour’s 14. The Liberal Democrats have seven, and the rest belong to a smattering of small parties including the Greens, Ukip, and local group Werrington First. The three Werrington First councillors are said to almost invariably vote with the Tories, and are in no real danger of losing seats. So if Peterborough City Council is to change hands, at least five Conservatives must be unseated. It’s no easy feat, but not impossible either. Labour is targeting seven seats and hopes to gain at least four or five; the Greens are on track to win one; while the Lib Dems estimate they’ll take about four.

Maybe a better guide will happen later this month  as the parties will be scanning the result in the East of England constituency particularly the vote for Nigel Farages Brexit party.

Certainly the news that George Galloway wants to be the Brexit candidate in Peterborough and threatens to run an as indy if he isn’t could make this a very interesting Byelection.

As political betting point out 
"This could be tricky for Farage because Galloway is no slouch when it comes to by-elections and has a far better record here than the Brexit Party leader.In 2012 in Bradford West he was 33/1 in the betting when he put himself forward in the rock solid safe Labour seat. Even on the day you could have got him at 4/1. As it turned out Galloway took the seat with 55% of the vote way ahead of the Labour candidate on 25%".

The recall petition in Peterborough  could be followed by one in Brecon & Radnorshire, and the result in Wales in the Euro Elections may have some impact on any Byelection though it is an ideal target for the Liberal Democrats.

I am not a great fan of recall petitions and although the above two are justified. I do worry that an organised party can trigger one for a trivial misdemeanour (though it seems it depends on the HOC speaker whether to trigger a petition).

Still if members of the House of Lords can carry on after being imprisoned for serious offences and we ordinary mortals have no say it does not put democracy  in a good light.

1 comment:

Gwyn Isaac said...

What about a recall for Pike's seat?