Guardian get it wrong on Catalonia

The Guardian website had  a head line

Catalan leader will fall short of majority to press for independence, polls say

The report said ..

Catalan president Artur Mas's party will fall short of the overall majority it needs at regional elections on 25 November to hold a referendum over Catalonia's independence from Spain, opinion polls published in several Spanish newspapers on Sunday have predicted.
A survey by the Metroscopia polling group in El País, Spain's biggest selling non-sports paper, predicted Convergència i Unió's (CiU) haul would be unchanged at 62 seats in the 135-member Catalan parliament after next Sunday's polls. Meanwhile, Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia forecast the conservative party would garner 62-64 legislators in the assembly, compared with the 68 they would need to govern without the support of six other parties expected to win seats.

However; as a number of commentators have pointed out this is either deliberately misleading or the result of a poor understanding of Catalan Politics.

As the polls indicate that the even more  Pro-Interdependence minded   Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) is likely to win  12-16 seats and another party Iinitiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV-EUIA)are also likely to back a referendum. With the combined Anti vote PPC ,PSC, Cs .likely to get under a combined total of under 50 seats.

68 seats needed for a majority

Date	Poll source	CiU	PSC	PPC	ICV-EUiA	ERC	C's	Others / undecided	Margin
18 November	SEGRE	– 60–64	– 16–19	– 18–21	– 11–13	– 12–16	– 8–11	– 0–3	–
14–16 November	Crònica.cat	– 63–64	– 18–19	– 16–17	– 12	– 14–15	– 5	– 5	–
13–16 November	Sigma Dos	36.6% 60–63	15.3% 21–23	13.8% 20–21	8.1% 10–12	9.5% 14	4.5% 5	12.2% 0–2	21.3
13–16 November	GESOP	38.0% 62–64	12.0% 15–17	11.6% 15–17	9.8% 13–14	12.8% 19–20	– 6–7	– 0–2	25.2
12–16 November	DYM	39.6% 60–62	13.2% 17	14.0% 18	8.3% 9–10	12.5% 18	4.4% 6	8.0% 4–7	25.6
12–16 November	Feedback	– 62–64	– 17–19	– 16–18	– 13–16	– 14–15	– 7–8	– 0–2	–
8–15 November	Metroscopia	37.3% 62	12.3% 18	13.2% 19	7.9% 10	12.2% 18	5.7% 6	11.4% 2	24.1
6–9 November	Feedback	40.0% 64–66	12.0% 16–18	12.3% 17–18	10.2% 12–13	10.9% 15–17	7.0% 7–8	7.6% 0	27.7
30 October–2 November	Feedback	39.7% 64–65	13.1% 18	12.7% 17–19	10.7% 14	10.1% 14–15	5.4% 6–7	8.3% 0	26.6
29 October–2 November	Crònica.cat	– 66	– 17	– 18	– 12–13	– 14–15	– 3	– 4–5	–
29 October–1 November	GESOP	39.5% 63–65	13.0% 18–20	12.0% 17–18	9.0% 11–12	11.0% 17–18	5.5% 5–7	10.0% 0–1	26.5
22–30 October	CEO	43.4% 69–71	12.0% 15	12.5% 18–19	8.0% 10	9.5% 14	5.1% 6	9.5% 0–3	30.9
9–29 October	CIS	36.8% 63–64	12.9% 19	11.0% 16–17	8.1% 11	11.1% 17	6.0% 7	14.1% 1	23.9
25–26 October	Ara	39.0% 64–66	13.3% 19–21	12.9% 19–20	8.0% 9–12	11.2% 16–18	5.0% 5–6	10.6% 0	25.7
22–26 October	Feedback	40.9% 65–66	13.4% 18	11.4% 17	10.1% 12–13	10.6% 16	5.6% 6	8.0% 0	27.5
18–22 October	GESOP	39.1% 64–65	14.0% 20–21	11.5% 15–16	9.4% 13–14	10.2% 15–16	5.0% 5–6	10.8% 0	25.1
15–19 October	Feedback	40.7% 67	15.0% 21	12.2% 17	9.6% 12	9.7% 14	4.2% 4	8.6% 0	25.7
8–11 October	Feedback	43.2% 68–69	15.2% 20–21	12.0% 17–18	8.6% 10–11	9.3% 13	3.1% 3	8.6% 0–4	28.0
30 September–1 October	GESOP	41.0% 64–65	14.5% 20–21	9.9% 12–13	7.7% 10	11.3% 17–18	5.0% 5	10.6% 5–6	26.5
29 September	NC Report [Note 1]	35.6% 58–59	16.6% 24–25	13.4% 20	8.9% 12	9.0% 14	3.5% 3	13.0% 3	19.0
26–28 September	Sigma Dos	39.2% 64–65	16.9% 24–25	12.8% 18–20	8.5% 11	8.2% 12	3.3% 3	11.1% 0–2	22.3
21–27 September	Feedback	43.0% 66–67	15.7% 21	11.8% 15–16	9.6% 12	10.1% 13	3.6% 4	6.2% 3	27.3
16 September	Telecinco	– 58–60	– 23–25	– 15–16	– 12–13	– 17–19	– 3–4	– 4–5	–
15 September	NC Report [Note 1]	36.8% 58–62	15.4% 22–25	13.2% 20	8.7% 11	9.5% 15	3.7% 3–4	12.7% 3	21.4
23 July	Ara	34.5% 55–57	16.6% 26–28	11.2% 16–17	9.7% 11–13	9.9% 15–16	3.4% 0–3	14.7% 0–4	17.9
4–18 June	CEO	36.2% 60	16.4% 24–25	10.5% 15–16	9.5% 12–13	9.7% 15–16	3.7% 3–4	14.0% 0–4	19.8
30 May–7 June	Feedback	37.9% 58–60	17.7% 26–28	11.8% 16	9.9% 13	9.3% 15	3.2% 3	10.2% 1–3	20.2
7–9 May	GESOP	33.9% 56–57	18.4% 28–29	10.2% 13–14	9.7% 13	10.6% 17–18	4.5% 5	12.7% 0	15.5
6–21 February	CEO	37.0% 62–63	16.5% 25–26	11.7% 18–19	8.1% 10–11	9.6% 14–15	4.0% 3–4	13.1% 0	20.5
16–19 January	GESOP	35.2% 62–63	16.9% 27–28	10.5% 14–15	8.6% 12–13	9.0% 13–14	3.8% 4	16.0% 0	18.3
2012
27–28 December	Feedback	38.5% 61–62	16.9% 25	12.2% 19	10.0% 13–14	9.8% 15	2.1% 0–2	10.5% 0	21.6
20 November 2011	General Election (seat extrapolation)	29.4% (46)	26.7% (38)	20.7% (31)	8.1% (10)	7.1% (10)	N/A	8.0% (0)	2.7
19–21 June	GESOP	36.7% 62–63	17.5% 27–28	– 19–20	– 11–12	6.5% 8–9	– 3	– 0–4	19.2
2011
28 November 2010	Election Results	38.4% 62	18.4% 28	12.4% 18	7.4% 10	7.0% 10	3.4% 3	13.0% 4	20.0

Indeed the Unionist vote seems to have drifted to the The Citizens – Party of the Citizenry which describes itself as centre-left and non-nationalist, although in fact it is a Spanish nationalist party.Which opposes even the extent of autonomy Catalans now enjoy. They are likely to increase their seats but not to an influential extent

The Guardian continues 

A recent survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO predicts 57% of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain. However, the central government has said a referendum in the rich but indebted region would be unconstitutional, and the constitutional court in Madrid blocked a move to hold a similar vote in the northern Basque country as recently as 2008.

Can Spain really Bloc the democratic wishes of the Catalan people? Will they physically prevent a referndum  as some Madrid politician seem to be suggesting? read here
.
The Guardian  continue.....

Another potential stumbling block for a separation has been raised by doubts over whether an independent Catalonia could remain in theEuropean Union. When asked on Saturday at the Iberoamerican summit held in Cádiz, European commission president José Manuel Barroso replied that the bloc would stand by rules drawn up in 2004, ie states that secede would have to apply for membership.
"The legal situation has not changed since 2004. The Lisbon treaty has not introduced any modifications in that respect," he said

He doesn't say whether what remains of Spain will have to also apply for membership? But sureley the indication is that they would.

Indeed Barroso  is playing a dangerous game throughout Europe the EU is not actually the most popular Institution at the moment and Euro-Scepticism  is on the rise  (Though I haven't succumbed yet).

The thought that they may have to reapply and get a better deal from Europe might well be an encouragement for Catalans and it may be something the SNP might consider  a slogan

Vote Yes for a better deal with Europe

 might just have some effect,

The Lib-Cons have successfully shifted the blame from the Bankers.

Reports from Today’s Guardian states that

“A tougher-than-expected squeeze on the unemployed is to be announced today as the jobless face the threat of losing all benefits for as long as three years if they refuse community work or the offer of a job, or fail to apply for a job if advised to do so.

In the most severe welfare sanctions ever imposed by a British government, unemployed people will lose benefits for three months if they fail to take up one of the options for the first time, six months if they refuse an offer twice, and three years if they refuse an offer three times.”

This reflects a victory  for the Lib-Con government who have effectively shifted the  blame from the current financial mess from the Bankers who caused it to the poor who are suffering from it.

Why are the main media so silent on this ? Why are they simply accepting the coalition argument and figures ? That is the implication that there are plenty of jobs out there and  people are out of work because they choose to.

Where is the evidence that people who have been unemployed for long period for along time. Have been refusing job offers.

For the record, it is policy now that people who refuse an offer of a job have they benefit cut. Indeed if you do not attend a job interview which you jobcentre and you to you face sanctions.

The new part is of course community work that is unpaid (accept for benefits) work . In other words there will be very little difference between those who are  undergoing a Community service orders are orders of court where:

·   an offender is required to perform unpaid, useful work for the benefit of the community

·     the court can order between 80 - 300 hours of community service which must be carried out at such times as directed by the supervising community service officer.

 And someone sent to do similar work because they are long term unemployed perhaps they will be issued with different colour uniforms in order that they are not associated with those doing similar work because they broke the law. What ever happened they are likely to receive abuse from the public who don’t see any difference.

What colour will the Unemployed wear?

The whole Lib-Con policy is a sleight of hand to divert in action over the real culprits the Bankers who finance the main political parties and that is why Labour are making only mute objections to this for they to are in thrall to the City and proposed similar policies when were in power in order to mask they failure to provide real jobs in our more deprived areas.

The current Lib-Con policy of criminalising the unemployed will lead to  some turning to actual crime and in some cases prostitution for as I remember a girl who turned to selling herself on the streets saying that,

“The humiliation was the same but at least the money was better”.

Why do we still allow people who have never experienced life on benefit, who will not have to worry about tuition fees for their children (they will simply sign a cheque) and who will spend more on a birthday party than some people receive in a year to dictate to us.