Friday, 31 August 2012

The problem with statics is that they only show you part of the story

A report by the office of National Statics for the Welsh government report says more than 2.5 million more prescriptions were issued in Wales in 2011 - taking the number up to 72.7 million.

Free prescriptions were introduced in Wales in 2007.

However, the overall cost of Wales' free prescription policy was £587.2m - that is down by more than £7m the year before..

Key facts: 

  • Between 2001-02 and 2011-12 the number of prescription items dispensed in Wales increased by 57.9% from 46.0 to 72.7 million. 
  • Over the decade the net ingredient cost (NIC) of prescription items prescribed by GPs in Wales ncreased by 28.9 % to £587.2 million.
 Compared to the rest of the UK

  • Wales dispensed the highest number of prescription items per head of population – 24.0 compared to 20.2 in Northern Ireland, 18.4 in England and 18.3 in Scotland. 
  • Wales had the second highest net ingredient cost per head of population - £195.53 compared to £238.05 in Northern Ireland, £194.58 in Scotland and £168.57 in England.  
  • Wales had the lowest net ingredient cost per prescription item - £8.14 compared to £9.16 in England, 10.65 in Scotland and £11.76 in Northern Ireland
Free prescriptions were introduced in Northern Ireland in 2010 and Scotland followed in 2011. and Prescriptions in England increased by 25p earlier this year and currently cost to £7.65.

So already it is likely that Scotland and Northern Ireland will match Wales. in 4 years time.

The problem with analysing these statistics is that it just shows the cost and not the effectiveness of the policy.

We must ask the questions,

  • Are people receiving more medical treatment because of this policy compared with England.?
  • Are people receiving prescriptions for Drugs which would cost less over the counter in which case would another system be more cost effective?
  • What is the comparison with the General Health of people in Wales compared to England especially in poorer areas?
  • Are more people seeing their GP in Wales since the Introduction of this policy?
  • Is there a difference between complaints at GP surgeries in Wales and Scotland.?
  • What percentage  people who received these prescriptions would have not used them if they were to pay £7.62 for them.. and how many prescriptions issued in England are not presented at the Chemist in Wales compared to England?
Opponents argue that those in need already receive fre prescriptions in England but how aware are people that they can receive them?

What we need to know is are people getting better healthcare because they are now getting the Prescription drugs they need .

Knowing the cost of something is important but it is not always the most essential part of what you are looking at the others are Value for Money and whether you really need it.

It may be that when opponents of free prescription use these statics to a call to end them they may be guilty of as Oscar Wilde quote

 "The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing".

Statics can't really tell us the value of free prescriptions .and before people use them to call for their end they should look at it more closely.

Thursday, 30 August 2012

Two Peter's Pontfiticate

The Tanned One (AKA) Peter Hain probably wishing to see his name in the paper again has been musing about the next General Election.

In Tuesdays Western Mail he said  that

"Labour will struggle to win the next general election outright and should be ready to go into coalition with Liberal Democrat"s,
Even though he says.....

That assumes, of course, that there are sufficient Lib Dem MPs remaining after a probable battering in 2015.”-

Quite what the public might think of Labour forming a coalition with a Party that could lose half it's parliamentary seats he doesn't elaborate

Though his statement may have more intent on trying to divide the Liberal Democrats he says...

“The question then is: with whom? It seems likely that the ’Orange Book’ Lib Dem leadership – which hijacked their Party and took it into bed with the Tories – will be rejected by a membership desperate to restore the tradition of Asquith, Lloyd George, Keynes, Beveridge, Jo Grimond, David Steel, Paddy Ashdown, Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell.

The  Orange Book was written largely by  Liberal Democrats who adhere more strongly to economic and personal liberal principles and therefore more  identifiable with the Tories , compared to those who more strongly identify with left-wing beliefs, such as members of the Social Liberal Forum or the Beveridge Group. Many "Orange Bookers" are currently in key leadership roles within the Liberal Democrats, including Leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg  and David Laws.

The Tanned One musing was not welcomed by the other Peter (Black) who in his Blog  wrote

"He may well be right, but if he is I hope that Labour are more prepared to negotiate as equals than they have been in the past"
How does Peter Black expect the Labour Party with say 300 MP's treat the Liberal Democrats with sat 25 MP's as equals particularly as the latter ha d been heavily rejected in the polls?

Peter number two also makes a bizarre attack on Hain's reading of Hstory when he writes.

Hain's political analysis and understanding of history is a bit one dimensional and he struggles with the history of the Liberal Party, which he was once a member of. For example he says: 
"It seems likely that the ’Orange Book’ Lib Dem leadership – which hijacked their Party and took it into bed with the Tories – will be rejected by a membership desperate to restore the tradition of ... Lloyd George"
Perhaps Mr. Hain has overlooked the fact that Lloyd George also took his party into a coalition with the Tories. 
Black is selective in Hain Statement see it in full above where he  includes many prominent Liberals besides LG.

 Lloyd George firstly was Prime Minister as part of a "War Time Coalition" and then due to the coupon election of 1918  which saw his Coalition Liberals dominated by the Tories the result of which damaged his party to the extent that it was excluded from power until the events of 2010.

 Both Peter's seem to think that the electorate will accept a Labour/ Lib Dem government  in 2015: but if such an event should occur. Which would see a Lib Dem leader (Not Clegg presumably) being Deputy Prime Minister even though the electorate had rejected them even more heavily than the Tories would make many more cynical about politics than they are now,

Why are tow of our most ridiculous Welsh Politicians called Peter?

Wednesday, 29 August 2012

A Historical Pageant Isn't Democracy.

 Plaid Wrecsam, Borthlas , and Change of Personnel  have all commented on the report that The Houses of Parliament could close for up to five years while essential repairs are carried out at a estimated cost ofbout £3 billion.

Yes £3 Billion   this compare to the £70 million it cost to build the National Assembly and the £414 million. The cost of the latter was highly controversial  the initial estimate  in taking in all costs was £109 Million .

So the Parliament refurbishment (not even having to purchase the site) of £3 Billion could be even more.

There seems no complaints from the Tax Payers Alliance so far.

Of course  the supporters of this project will speak of the "unique historic role"  of the UK Parliament  but if devolution has shown us anything  Democracy does not need to come from a Gothic Palce and acane procedure

 All Members of Parliament cannot fit in the Chamber, which can seat only 427 of the 650 Members it appears the refurbishment plans wil not change this and even if after 2014 and  the 59 Scottish MPs did not attend . There would still be not enough room for them all.

And there would be less if they adopted a sensible electronic voting system.

From Wilipedia
At the Moment when the debate concludes, or when the Closure is invoked, the motion in question is put to a vote. The House first votes by voice vote; the Speaker or Deputy Speaker puts the question, and Members respond either "Aye" (in favour of the motion) or "No" (against the motion). The presiding officer then announces the result of the voice vote, but if his or her assessment is challenged by any Member or the voice vote is unclear, a recorded vote known as a division follows. The presiding officer, if he or she believes that the result of the voice vote is clear, may reject the challenge. When a division occurs, members enter one of two lobbies (the "Aye" lobby or the "No" lobby) on either side of the Chamber, where their names are recorded by clerks. A member who wishes to pointedly abstain from a vote may do so by entering both lobbies, casting one vote for and one against. At each lobby are two tellers (themselves Members of the House) who count the votes of the members.
Once the division concludes, the tellers provide the results to the presiding officer, who then announces them to the House. If there is an equality of votes, the Speaker or Deputy Speaker has a casting vote. Traditionally, this casting vote is exercised to allow further debate, if this is possible, or otherwise to avoid a decision being taken without a majority (e.g. voting No to a motion or the third reading of a bill). Ties rarely occur—the last one was in July 1993. The quorum of the House of Commons is 40 members for any vote. If fewer than 40 members have participated, the division is invalid

Our AM's simply press a button and the result is instantaneous and it clear who voted for what.

There are division bells in some local pubs and eating housed close to Westminster. So MP's can rush back and vote .

The whole system is arcane and before Televising was largely unknown to the majority of the electorate.

Clearly I would rather see a Welsh Parliament of an Independent Wales and whilst there may be a role for some procedure . A Legislature should get on with the job of running the country and not be a floor show.

You may think a 1906 Roils Royce Silver Ghost  is a car to impress onlookers  but you wouldn't (unless you were a billionaire) use it for everyday use..

If we are still to be stick in the Union lets have at least a modern Parliament building and confine Westminster to the tourist attraction it should be.

Tuesday, 28 August 2012

Cox's Farm is grossly overcrowded.

The Western Mule reports that 3,180 people incarcerated in Cardiff, Bridgend’s Parc prison, Usk and Swansea,  Welsh prisons are 136% over the Prison Service’s Certified Normal Accommodation (CNA).

According to the Prison Reform Trust, CNA is “the good, decent standard of accommodation that the Service aspires to provide all prisoners”.

Swanse colloquially known as 'Cox's farm', after a former governor. "houses"category B/C men’s prison, is the third most overcrowded prison in England and Wales, with levels at 182% of what they should be.

The statistics show the Victorian-era prison, built in 1845 to hold 240 people, now holds 436 men.

Across Wales, the prison system is 51 prisoners short of exceeding its operational capacity.

A spokesman for the Prison Reform Trust, which analysed the figures, said:
For people in prison themselves, overcrowding has a tangible impact.
“Figures for 2010-11 show that nearly a quarter of people in prison are being held in overcrowded accommodation, either doubling up in cells designed for one occupant or being held three to a cell in cells designed for two people.
“Private prisons have held a higher percentage of their prisoners in overcrowded accommodation than public sector prisons every year for the 13 years to 2010-11.
“Overcrowding makes it much harder for staff to work intensively with offenders on resettlement.
“Currently 47% of adults re-offend within a year of leaving prison, rising to almost 57% for those who had served a sentence of less than 12 months. Nearly 70% of children (10-17) released from custody re-offend within a year.”
England and Wales  are 90th in te league if Prisoners per 100 thousand of population(156)  nd Scotland  89th (157) and Northern Ireland 146 99. The USA imprisons most with 730 per thousand.

By Contrast  Denmark is at  169 (74) Noway 170 (73) Sweden 174 (70) and Finland 186 (56).

Despite the "Nordic Noir" view people may get of Scandinavian countries from Wallander , The Killing and The Bridge on Television  crime in these countries is not higher than the UK it is less despite having a lower prison population

In reality, the last murder in the area around Ystad (Where Wallander) is based,happened in 1999. This part of Sweden, in the far south, is notoriously quiet and peaceful.

If you think prison is there for revenge then I suppose you wouldn't be to worried about these figures but if you believe it should be about rehabilitation  then clearly  having overcrowded prisoners is not the way.

Yes Violent people and some habitual prisoners should sent to prison but we can punish people by other means .

Indeed with modern technology we should be able to monitor people in their homes restricting their they times outside e , Even their access to the Internet and other communications.should be able to be limited or denied.

Of course ir would need to monitored but done properly we could have a effective "Home Prison" system where people can be rewarded or punished for thier behaviour by altering their access to main stream society whilst they are still able to live in it.

Letting people see what they are missing by not being fully involved in daily life would probably have a greater affect on them than placing them in a Victorian prison where they will get to sense of civil responsibility at all.

Monday, 27 August 2012

All right, Mr. Mandela , I'm ready for my close-up."

The Tanned one AKA Peter Hain says he is "angry" that his website has been targeted by computer hacking network Anonymous.

The group has aclaimed d it is attacking government websites in retaliation for the UK's handling of the case of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The Tanned One is probably justified in this because he has actually supported Mr Assange, who has been granted asylum by Ecuador in a bid to avoid extradition to Sweden, where faces questioning over allegations of sexual assault - which he denies. He said

"If the reason [for the attack] is revenge for Assange's treatment, it's weird to attack me," 
"They have not done their research because I have supported Assange and opposed his extradition."

So even if you support Anonymous on this action ( and I don')t it seems they have got the wrong target..

But the Tanned One  may have lost some sympathy  when he said

He said: "It reminds me of attacks I received in the anti-apartheid and anti-fascist struggles."

To refer to his past in such away is order to increase sympathy is wrong  . He is very much an establishment figure now and rather like a former Matinee Idol who keeps referring to their Old films when critics savage their latest one keeps referring back to their former glories . He can't defend his current position as a supporter of Tony Blair and his illegal wars by referring us back to a time when we respected him.

Peter Hain the Norma Desmond of Radical Poltics.

Sunday, 26 August 2012

Quebec Update . PQ heading for Majority.

With just over a week to go (August 5th)  The latest polls from Quebec has seen a slight swing to  Parti Quebecois as Liberal voter seem to be switching to Coalition Avenir Québec. According to Poling Analysts ThreeHundredEight.

The polls also seem to indicate  that Liberla leader  and Current  Quebec  Premier  Jean Charest. could lose in his riding of Shebrooke.

The latest poll would see Parti Qubecois  Pauline_Marois gaining a majority in the Assemblée Nationale .but it still to close to call and there's still  time for a major shift.

There is however a clear  possibility of Quebec Solidare  gaining an additional seat after a strong showing in the leaders debate by Co-leader  Françoise David which may boost her campaign in the riding of Gouin. a neighbour seat of her co-leader Amir Khan pf Mercier which he won last time.

There still a possibility  of QS holding the balance of power and if Maoris wants another referendum this may be her only option..

Saturday, 25 August 2012

What future for those who don't get a top GCSE?

I'm not surprised in  The Western Mule reports that the Federation of Small Businesses in Wales has found that 82% of businesses it surveyed were worried about the basic skills of young people leaving school at 16.

According to the Mule...
One firm in Swansea said it routinely asked foreign interns to look over writing done by young recruits in Wales as the grammar of the second-language English speakers was usually superior.
The FSB released the findings of its survey of 140 companies in Wales to coincide with GCSE results day and at the same time the Welsh Government is carrying out a review of qualifications in Wales.
Across the UK, some 2,774 firms were questioned by the small business body and said they shared the concerns of Welsh businesses.
The FSB is calling for the Welsh Government to ensure pupils to leave school with basic skills, along with other important skills such as CV writing, time-keeping.

The problem is how do you tell a schoolchild who is already behind academically  that  they should improve their CV skills when they already believe they have no future.

How many of those who get good grades at GSCE now enter the job market rather than go on to further education?

The FSB seem to be making a point but how many 16 year olds are they employing..

Even graduates are now applying for the same type of jobs that 20 years ago they would have applied for at 16.

We have an Education system that complains about standards and then complains when it appears that the English GCSE is being marked more harshly.

Though it seems that examiners have jumped the gun over plans in England to do so and Welsh markers have followed.

Which is unfair on those who sat them.

But how can we have a system that demands greater success and then complain about standards falling because the Exams are to easy?

But the real problem lies in what to do with those who are not one of those who are interviewed live on the BBC opening their envelop safe in the knowledge that they have done well.

Its the ones who don't even turn up because they know they have only got a low grade in their subjects and already feel their on the scrapheap

When I started work there were numbers of people who were illiterate on the shop floor but still did their work well..

But there are fewer manual jobs now and those who went in local industry at sixteen with only a leaving certificate then would be unlikely to get a job now.

And those who later realise they need to restart their education as a mature student will not be getting the generous grant (although I didn't see it at the time ) I received at the age of 30 to renter full time education..

Instead of blaming the education system we need to look at how we are going to employ people who for various reason have not succeed at school to find employment when we have no manufacturing industry.

With graduates now getting jobs at call centres . What future do those with only three low grade GCSE have?

Friday, 24 August 2012

Michael D. Tears into Tea Party.

If you haven't seen this  then listen to this an obscure interview of the man who’s now Ireland’s president ripping into American Tea Party politics has suddenly captured the public’s attention, with a half-million views in a few days.

Conservative U.S. talk show host Michael Graham  a Tea Part Supporter who broadcasst in the Irish Republic was supposed to debate the head of the Irish Labour Party, Michael D. Higgins, in May, 2010. The 71-year-old Higgins, a human rights campaigner who was a professor in the United States in the 1960s, was elected president of Ireland in 2011.

Graham, show airs on radio in Boston and since 2005, airs a weekly guest slot on the Monday edition of George Hook's drivetime show, The Right Hook on Ireland's Newstalk. Speaking from right-wing, US perspective, many of Graham's views are often controversial to the European audience, and so his weekly slot has proved unpopular with the show's regular listeners.

A site called The Obama Diary, which posts pro-Obama videos and campaign support, picked it up this Which took part  during a debate on the Irish radio channel Newstalk on 28 May 2010, Michael D. , accused Graham of indulging in "the radio of hysterical ignorance" .

A small video-sharing website called Upworthy unearthed the tape this week and within days, more than 500,000 people had watched it.

Graham tried repeatedly to interrupt Higgins’ four-minute lambasting of fear politics in the United States.

Higgins replied, “Be proud to be a decent American rather than being just a wanker whipping up fear.”

It gets goes to show that these Right wing shock jockeys are nothing like as effective when they don't have control of the microphone.

I bet the whole of Ireland is proud of their President today and the only sad thing is that his new position  probably means he has to be more diplomatic but Michael D. rocking once again.

Thursday, 23 August 2012

Wiliam and Harry when are they with their regiments?

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas -- unless you're Harry Windsor and TMZ publishes pictures of you cavorting naked during a game of strip billiards

It said the romp featuring the "royal", who is third in line to the throne, took place four days earlier at a "high rollers hotel suite" on the Las Vegas strip.

One photo shows Harry, stark naked but for a wristwatch and a necklace. His hands cup his genitals. His face is turned toward the television set in the suite. And his body partially shields that of another person, also naked.

A second picture shows him hugging a woman from behind next to a pool table. Both are naked.

Cor Blimey I'm shocked.

Lets be honest he's probably done no worse than any other young man on Holiday and the only real diffrence is that he seems to have a lot of holidays for a serving soldier.

Palace officials confirmed the photos are of the prince.

"Prince Harry has been on a private holiday before he resumes his military duties," said a palace official, declining to be named in line with protocol.

Unfortunately an MP in our democracy would probably be barred from asking

  • How much time does a year is he actually with his regiment a and not on Holiday or an a Royal Jaunt (sorry visit) at the tax payers expenses?
  • When he is with his regiment is he being given preferential treatment when it comes yo training courses ans promotion opportunities?

He has reportedly served 77 days in Afghanistan . Bit that very low compared with has ordinary squaddie.

On 10 March 2011, it was revealed that Prince Harry had passed his Apache flying test and he was awarded his Apache Flying Badge on 14 April 2011.T
he majority of those completing the final two-month Apache training are deployed to the front lines in Afghanistan.There is speculation that he shall return to Afghanistan once again before the withdrawal in 2015. 

To be fair to the boy he probably would like to serve but the fact is he will never be treated like an ordinary soldier not only in keeping him out of danger but in the time spent in ensuring he does not fail as officer.

The fact that  he completed his education at Eton with two A-Levels[12] (achieving a grade B in art and D in Geography)  is either a n indication of the education levels of the Officer Class in our army or that it it is still dominated by the public school class system

Mind you I'm less worried about Harry than his older brother who is supposed to be operating as an  the Search and Rescue Pilot  RAF Valley on Anglesey  on the Sea King search and rescue helicopter .

If I was lying on a stretcher on Snowdon  after falling . I wouldn't like to hear that they couldn't send a pilot because he with his wife his mother in a Ceremony in the Caribbean

Of course the problem with these young Royals who are close to succession is that the Military is the only place to put them as they aren't brought up to do ordinary jobs where you have to do things yourself.

The Sons and daughters of a President would be open to scrutiny but we wouldn't expect them to pretend to be in the services  whilst they wait to climb the line of succession.

Wednesday, 22 August 2012

Quebec: a guide to Welsh politics.

As I pointed out in a previous post.

Two new Parties are fighting the Qubec election both lead by former leaders of Parti Quebecois (PQ) the new parties are seen to be on th e right and left of PQ.

But it is the left which seeks Independence. Or Sovereignty as used there.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAO)led by former cabinet minister François Legault seeks to pand end to the Sovreignity Question  but although the party does not support independence, it advocates Quebec nationalism. This includes limiting immigration and decreasing the use of languages other than French, especially in Montreal. it is seen as a a party of the right .

Option nationale(ON)  is led by Jean-Martin Aussant . A party  it is fed up of Parti Quebecois dithering over Quebec sovereignty   and a refusal to set referendum timetables in its perennial effort to win over that crucial soft-nationalist electorate.

Interestingly  Aussant has reached out to Anglophones putting the economic case rather than one based pn the French language.

So we have two parties  one which bases its argument on promoting French but not independence and  one pushing from independence and trying to include Monoglot English speakers and in a youtube video


Sadly it is the right wing anti-independence pary CAO that it is likely to gain seats . Whilst Aussant  will be lucky to keep his own.

But its only be going a year so don't right it off yet.

But looking at the debate from ONIf I was a Plaid or SNP poltician  I would shamelessly steal the following argument about the future economics of an Indpendent  Nations that Aussant makes...

One of the keys, Aussant stressed, is persuading Quebecers that sovereignty would be good for Quebec's economy. , Aussant has an economics background that comes in handy when making that case.
So Quebec would lose billions in equalization payments? Good riddance, says Aussant.
He passionately argues that the current system is bad for the province. In another  Youtube video, Aussant puts it this way: Imagine you have $50 to buy music you like. Your neighbour takes the $50, and promises to give you back $55 worth of tunes.
"What he doesn't tell you is that it's music you don't like -- and there are $25 in administrative fees," Aussant tells viewers. "So you started off with $50 and you ended up with $30 worth of music you don't even like.
"That's Canadian equalization. We need to face the facts: We'd be better off keeping our money and choosing our own music."

Substitute  the Barnett formula for equalisation and Pounds for Canadian Dollars and we have  an argument that makes sense here.

The Quebec election is worth following from a Welsh viewpoint as the question over whether some Nationalist  would reject Independence if the Language was protected and given equal status or whether the real argument over the future of Wales should be that we would be financially and socially better of running ourselves.

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

The Ghost of Dame Shirley Porter.

The Government in the UK have thrown their support behind right wing think tank Policy Exchange that councils should consider selling off their most expensive houses in order to to build more cheaper houses

Policy Exchange is David Cameron's Favourite think tank and they claim selling high value homes when they become vacant would raise £4.5bn a year.

That would be enough to build 80,000 to 170,000 social homes, the report said.

In its Ending Expensive Social Tenancies report, Policy Exchange argues the move could create the largest social house building programme since the 1970s - giving the economy a kickstart.

Sounds like a good Idea?  Yeah sure!

The real truth lie in the statement of Neil O'Brien, the think tank's director, who .said that 
" social housing would still exist in very expensive areas under the proposal, but there would just be "less of it".
This seems to me to show the true purpose is to move people in social housing to "designated areas" and to provide only basic housing in these areas.

They claim the houses would only become vacant and people would not be evicted . But the government have already proposed that people should be limited in the time they could live in social housing.

Certainly not the sort of housing that was build in the 1920 and 30 which are so often praised on the sort of programme on television that shows house restoration for sale or rent like "Homes under the Hammer".

Probably  the sort of housing Neil O'Brien is talking about.

Th e Con/LibDem government have already limited housing benefit forcing people to leave areas with high rents (where they have lived all their lives) to less affluent areas.

The report "Ending Expensive Social Tenancies"  may not be the same deliberate policy as  the Westminster Council scandal of 1986 when fearing that they would eventually lose control unless there was a permanent change in the social composition of the borough, It's leader Dame Shirley Porter instituted a secret policy known as 'Building Stable Communities'.

Eight wards were selected as 'key wards' – in public it was claimed that these wards were subject to particular 'stress factors' leading to a decline in the population of Westminster. In reality, secret documents showed that the wards most subject to these stress factors were rather different, and that the eight wards chosen had been the most marginal in the City Council elections of 1986.

An important part of this policy was the designation of much of Westminster's council housing for commercial sale, rather than re-letting when the properties became vacant. The designated housing was concentrated in those wards most likely to change hands to Labour in the elections.

Does this ring a bell?

The policy was judged illegal by the district auditor, and a surcharge of £27m levied on her in 1996.[ This was later raised to £42 million with interest and costs.

Since this would be a government initiative then it probably would not be subject to a legal challenge but it does look somewhat similar in that a policy that is claimed to help the worse of is simply a form of social cleansing moving poorer people out of affluent (and Tory voting areas) to sink estates where they may vote Labour or probably not at all.

It may be that Labour will only put up a little fight.  They have long abandoned those living in social housing. Reasoning they already have the voted of those who bother to turn out at elections and that their future depends on "Middle England", who may be supportive of the end of Social Housing in their quiet suburbs.

Once again we have a report backed by the Con/LibDem government, that attacks the lives of working people whilst making elaborate claims that they will benefit from it

The true nature of course is to gain the support of "Middle England" whilst those less well off will be allowed to sink further into poverty .

Monday, 20 August 2012

Julian Assenger . UK government make a mess of it.

It says something about the UK's coalition government,that it has managed to give Julian Assanger a boost after public opinion turned against him when he was was recently granted political asylum by the government of Ecuador, after e he  has been held up in the country’s embassy in London since June 19, 2012.

Assange has been fighting against extradition to Sweden where Swedish authorities want to question him for alleged sexual misconduct against two women .Which are the sort of accusations that would shock his liberal minded supporters 

Assange and his lawyer have accused Swedish authorities of secretly plotting to extradite him to the U.S.

Opinion was divided that Assanger had a case to answer and on the truth over the claim that Sweden was involved in a plot against him.

However when he skipped bail and  fled to the embassy it did look like he was trying to evade justice.

But then it appears the UK government threatened to subvert International Law and storm the Ecuadorian embassy and give a boost to Assanger's claim that there was a US plot to extradite him to the states and the UK and Swedish governments were complacent in this.

US Secretary of State   Hilary Clinton who has made it clear that despite her support for dissidents in other countries seems to believe  it does not apply to those opposed to US policy. 

Whilst claiming to stand up for freedom of speech, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly amid criticism from Assange and others. during a November 2011 interview  she said 

“So I think you have to be both protective of the openness of the internet but recognise that just
“But when an organisation “ and you mentioned WikiLeaks “ when an organisation steals information, which is what happened, that is “ just because they put it on an internet doesn’t make it any more right than if they had passed it out on a street corner,” said Clinton in the November 2011 interview.

She seems to be arguing that there is one rule for the US and sometimes her allies and another for the rest of the world .

It does seem that Assanger has been accused of crimes that most would feel repellent though  theu are only accusations .

What is strange is that Sweden had not issued a cast iron guarantee  that Assanger would not be deported to the US regardless of the charges.

If Assanger has a case to answer then he should go to Sweden to face them; But the behaviour of the all three governments UK, US and Sweden has strengthened the conspiracy theory,

It would seem simple for the UK government to wash their hands of this affair and allow Assanger  to leave for Ecuador but the UK has stated that it will not grant Assange safe passage out of the country.

Which gives the impression the US may be pulling the strings.and whatever the result Assanger is going to appear the victim of a conspiracy whether he is or not,.

Sunday, 19 August 2012

Tories say we are are Lazy.

Any doubts that certain sections of the Tory Party hold the working people in the UK in contempt can be dispersed by a new Pamphlet  produced by some of the Young Turks to be shortly before the Conservatives’ autumn conference according  in the Evening Standard.according to the Evening Standard .

The 5 MPs are

Kwasi Kwarteng  ,
Kwarteng was born in London. His parents migrated to the UK from Ghana as students in the 1960s.[5]
Kwarteng was born in London. His parents migrated to the UK from Ghana as students in the 1960s.[He attended Eton College as a King's Scholar, and then read classics and history at Trinity College, Cambridge He was a member of the winning University Challenge team in 1995, in the first series after the programme was revived by the BBC in 1994.[5][7] He attended Harvard University as a Kennedy Scholar and completed a PhD in History at Cambridge University.Prior to becoming an MP, Kwarteng worked as an analyst in financial services.

 Priti Patel,

Patel was born in London,] England to Ugandan Indian immigrant parents and grew up in South Harrow and Ruislip Her parents ran a post office in rural Norfolk and then a successful small shop in south east England. She joined the Conservative Party during the time John Major was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Patel attended a comprehensive school in Watford, before studying economics at Keele University and then going on to the University of Essex.
After graduating, Patel was given a job by Andrew Lansley (now a frontbencher, then a Head of the Conservative Research Department) at Conservative Central Office. From 1995 to 1997, she worked for Sir James Goldsmith's Referendum Party, heading the press office.

 Dominic Raab,

Raab grew up in Buckinghamshire, to a Czech father, who came to Britain in 1938 as a Jewish refugee. Raab went to Dr Challoner's Grammar School in Amersham. He went on to Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford University, where he read law. After graduating, Raab gained a Masters from Cambridge University. Raab started his career as a business lawyer at Linklaters in London. Raab spent the summer of 1998 at Birzeit University (near Ramallah) where he worked for one of the principal Palestinian negotiators of the Oslo peace accords, assessing World Bank projects on the West Bank.
In 2000, Raab joined the Foreign Office, covering a range of briefs including leading a team at the British Embassy in The Hague, dedicated to bringing war criminals to justice. Upon returning to London, he advised on the Arab-Israeli Conflict, the European Union, and Gibraltar. From 2006 to 2010, Raab worked in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Shadow Home Secretary David Davis, and to fellow lawyer and Shadow Secretary of State for Justice Dominic Grieve

Chris Skidmore

Skidmore was born on 17 May 1981 in Longwell Green. He was educated at Bristol Grammar School, a mixed independent school in the City of Bristol, Avon in south west England, before going up to Christ Church in the University of Oxford, graduating in 2002 with a double first-class honours degree (MA).
Chris Skidmore worked for David Willetts and Michael Gove as an advisor, before being selected to fight his home seat of Kingswood seat in 2009.
He was elected in 2010, gaining the seat from the Labour Party. He is a member of the Commons Select Committee on Health, specialising in health care reform and social care.
Skidmore is also a member of the Free Enterprise Group of MPs,


Elizabeth Truss.

Truss  grew up in a left-wing family in Paisley and Leeds, before attending Oxford attended a state primary school in Paisley, in Scotland followed by Roundhay School, a comprehensive school in north-east Leeds. She lived in Canada for a year, and compares the competitive attitude in schooling there to the 'trendy' education she received in Leeds.] Amongst her A-levels, Truss studied both Ordinary Maths and Advanced Maths.]She read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Merton College, Oxford.
After graduation in 1996, she worked for Shell as a commercial manager and Cable & Wireless as economics director, and became a qualified management accountant[] Truss became the deputy director of Reform in January 2008,[where she advocated more rigorous academic standards in schools, a greater focus on tackling serious and organised crime, and urgent action to deal with Britain's falling competitiveness. She co-authored The Value of Mathematics]and A New Level amongst other reports.

Interestingly three are the offspring of immigrants and it might be their parents struggle that influenced their view of British worker .

But only one Truss seems to have done any real work on the shopfloor so to speak and one can't help feel their polemic comes from misplaced  ideology rather than evidence.

In the report   branded Britons among 

“the worst idlers” in the world and said the country should emulate the hard work ethic of Asia.
“Too many people in Britain, we argue, prefer a lie-in to hard work,” . 

Their vision, laid in , Britannia Unchained — Global Growth and Prosperity, reflects much of the right of the Tory party (and some Labour MPs ) towards working people.

The MPs said

 "that the UK had to raise its work ethic towards that of South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, rather than the office and factory culture in struggling European nations, or risk slipping into grim decline with falling living standards".
“Britain will never be as big as China or Brazil, but we can look forward to a new generation, ready to get to work,” the MPs said. “If we are to take advantage of these opportunities, we must get on the side of the responsible, the hard working and the brave. We must stop bailing out the reckless, avoiding all risk, and rewarding laziness.

The MPs have not come from  entirely privileged backgrounds but they have no direct experience  of working in a dead end job where they see no future for themselves as many workers do.

But they go into work each day and do their best they can and then they see their wages frozen and the n see bosses receive 8.5% pay rises together with bonuses even though they have lost money.

British Workers actually work longer hours than most of their European counterparts  as jaxxlander points out Recent figures show that Britons work among the longest hours in Europe, with staff putting in an average of 1,647 hours a year compared to 1,408 in Germany.

It seems that Background has no affect on Tory Ideology and they are all remote from reality.

When a UK minister or Carwyn Jones ot Alex Salmond lead a trade mission abroad in the efforts to persuade some international company to set up here  they must be hoping that  their  guests have not read the report.

These MPs may have done untold damage to future investment here by their Lazy an inaccurate  pamphlet . They stand condemned.

Saturday, 18 August 2012

A Lib Dem in Gwydir House?

 The speculation over the fate of Hapless Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan  with the Liberal Democrats warning that she should not  not be dropped from the cabinet and replaced with another MP from outside Wales, according to the Western Mule .

Forner AM Jennny  Randerson noew in the Lords praised Mrs Gillan’s record and expressed scepticism at strong speculation she may be dropped for another MP representing an English constituency.

Conservative Work & Pensions minister Maria Miller – who was educated at the same Bridgend comprehensive as First Minister Carwyn Jones and now represents Basingstoke – is widely tipped to succeed Mrs Gillan in the coming weeks.

Ms Randerson said that although Cardiff-born Mrs Gillan represents Chesham and Amersham she has cemented strong links with Wales.

Lets face it sh would never  have said that if the Lib Dems wern't in coalition

If Mrs Gillan does leave the cabinet and the Wales Office remains a Tory-led department, Ms Randerson argued, there are “appropriate candidates” among Welsh Conservative MPs.

She said:
  “The Secretary of State needs to have pretty active Welsh links. I think there would be political problems with taking someone so distant from Wales.”

 South Wales West AM Peter Black whose been quiet lately said:

“I would like to see a Liberal Democrat in the Wales Office and I hope something can be sorted out.”
He continued: “I think the obvious person would be Jenny Willott.(Cardiff Central)

 Well there are only two Welsh Lib Dem MPs  so there not much choice

However Mr Black also suggested the role could be held by a peer such as Baroness Randerson.

Ms Randerson said she was “astonished” by the idea, adding: “I honestly couldn’t possibly comment.”

So in Peter Blacks mind an unelected member of the House of Lords is preferable to an MP from outside Wales if they are a Liberal Democrat .

I doubt if he would support a Tory Lord even one with Welsh connections.

and what would the reaction of the 8  Welsh  and 14 AM feel if the Lib Dems 2 MPs and 5AM's  were given the job

Would David Jones agree to serve under Jenny Willot?

Mind you the current Secretary of State for Scotland Michael More is a Liberal Democrat but then the Tories have only 1 Scottish seat to the Lib Dems 11 so it always likely the coalition should go for a Lib Dem in Scotland than a Tory from outside.

Mind you it would be interesting to see a Lib Dem on the post only to see the relationship between her and La Pasionaria (Kirsty Williams  the party leader in the Assembly.

Would they work together or would they both try and exert their authority over the Welsh Lib Dems

In theory they are a federalised Party and Ms Williams is undisputed leader but would the Cardiff Liberals who are much more anglasised than the Traditional Welsh Liberals prefer to back one of their own.

 The relationship between Cheryl Gilian and Andrew R T Davies has been fragile but it may be as naught if La Pasionaria thought her authority as Welsh leader was being challenged.

I suspect that La Pasionaria views Ms Willot or Baroness Randerson )as she is now) taking control in Gwydir House with any enthusiasm.s

Friday, 17 August 2012

Goodbye Cheryl?

Speculation over the future of hapless Welsh Secretary  Cheryl Gillen has risen after after  "influential" Tory  Tim Montgomerie, the editor of Tory website Conservative Home, called for Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb to be made Secretary of State for Wales He  stated

“Cheryl Gillan is almost certain for the chop and rather than worrying only about the gender balance of the frontbench, he should worry about whether it represents people from working-class backgrounds. “Replace Ms Gillan with Stephen Crabb. Representing a Welsh seat, bright, articulate, politically savvy and from a humble background Stephen is exactly the kind of person who would be a great representative for our party in Wales.”
Wales Online, 16 August 2012

Further Speculation on Betsan Powis Blog on the BBC (but by Toby Mason ) reflecting on the current state of the Welsh Tories on a future Welsh secretary. Led to who wil replace Gillian 

"Rather than try and find some sort of entente, most Conservative AMs now seem to pin their hopes for the future on David Cameron's expected reshuffle, due in early September. The prospect of Bridgend-educated Maria Miller, the current UK Minister for Disabled People, and MP for Basingstoke as the new Welsh Secretary doesn't fill them with wild enthusiasm - but mention the member for Clwyd West stepping up from deputy to the Cabinet table and the most common reaction is akin to that of an ice cube running down their backs".
BBC  14 August 2012 

Of course these names are being banded because two represent Welsh Constituencies  and one has  Welsh connection.

But this is assuming that Cameron really cares about Welsh feelings that their Secretary of State should have some connection's with us. But it may be depend on  whether he needs to promote a loyalist or silence a rebel by giving them a Cabinet position,

It does seem that Gillian may well be domed but I  wouldn't like to put a bet on her successor . There a very good chance I've never heard of them anyway  .

The Tories always have had a problem with this position due to the lack of quality Tory MPs in Wales. With a similar problem in Scotland . He may decide to abolish the post and create a Minister for devolved powers who can argue  the "We are all better together " case.

Could Cheryl Gillian  go into the record books as the last Secretary of State for Wales. Don't bet on it but then I would't place to much of a wager on who he replacement will be .Though I might just bet on her going but I don't think the odds will be worth it.

Thursday, 16 August 2012

Useless at P.E. but still forced to take part.

One aspect of the Olympics Legacy is Politicians calling for more PR in Schools with London Mayor Boris Johnson calling for 2 hours of compulsory  PE a day  he said...
 “I’d like to see, frankly, the kind of regime I used to enjoy — compulsory two hours of sport every day. I’ve no doubt that’s the sort of thing which would be wonderful for kids across this country. I think it is of profound importance for the happiness and success of this country that we have more sport in schools.”
So he's proposing that something like 2/3 of the School Hours each day was dedicated to PE

Mr Johnson went to the exclusive private school of Eton which may have increased the school day to include  some form of PE.Tennis Club for instance.

Bur why haven't those reporting on this pointed out what part of the curriculum should be sacrificed  for PE?

Literacy perhaps?

Other politicians have jumped on the games bandwagon .

Ignoring the fact both Labour and Coalition Governments have allowed the selling of of School playing fields 

They are calling for more sport and competitive games in our schools.

I may be bitter here I was absolutely useless at PE and would have dropped it like a shot if I could.

I was always the last to be picked for a team when it came to competitive  sports and when it came to the weekly rugby training I was sent on a unsupervised cross country run with the other no-hoppers.

It cam be hard on a Kid when you're  bottom of the class in any subject and PE was mine but each week I had to take part in a subject I was no good at and couldn't drop. .

Strangely this did not make be adverse to Sports as a spectator.and I have served on the committee of my local Rugby Club despite never having played for them.

Yes we need to make sure that our children are fit. Bu not subject them to regimes they are not suited to.

It must be tailored to ensure all enjoy or at least don't hate it.

And using the Olympics as an example is a bad one .

Schools should not be looking at only  the best athletes though they should be helped but at the general health and fitness of all students. 

And we must make sure that we do not concentrate on the elite performers. Creating the "Jocks"  attitude of American Schools.

The idea of fitness is a great one for our children but it Strangely this did not make be adverse to Sports as a spectator.must not leave a large number humiliated and embarrassed  by making them do activities  they are not suited to do,

Wednesday, 15 August 2012

Bring back Team USSR?

The London Olympics are being touted sa a triumph for unionists, and a disaster for the Scottish independence movement.

In the Spectator, London mayor Boris Johnson :

"One of the many happy features of these wonderful Olympics is surely that they have retarded Alex Salmond in his campaign to end the union." Iain Martin, in the Telegraph, wrote: "One of the most powerful and pleasing images of the last week has been the omnipresence of the union flag. Winners have wrapped themselves in it and spectators have waved it proudly. For those of us who want the United Kingdom to survive the SNP's wrecking crew, this is a great sight."

Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser added:

"We have seen a reclamation of British identity over the last year with the queen's jubilee and the passage of the Olympic torch."

Tory MEP Struan Stevenson:

 "Andy Murray, great Scot and Olympic champion, holding a gold medal and proudly draped in the union jack – eat your heart out Alex Salmond!"

Even Former Labour leader and part time MP Gordon Brown has weighed into the debate, arguing at the Edinburgh international book festival that

 the Olympics have shown that "pooling and sharing" of national resources worked out best for everyone

I can't argue that the Great Britain and Northern Ireland (It was never team GB) probably won more medals than the Nations competing separately.

And the argument that many of the Welsh and Scottish Medallists .Won Team thier medals as a result of being a Team consisting  member of other GB (and NI) Nations is a fact .

But what kind of  argument is it for for a Nations existence that it is now measured on how many medals you get at the Summer Olympics?

Before its dissolution the Soviet Union (USSR) was the dominant force at posy war Olympics and even the Unified Team in Barcelona  when Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania competed as Independent Nations saw the Russian dominated side topping the Table .

But since then the Russians have dropped somewhat in their Medal hauls.

Fourth in London however the former Soviet republics would have topped the Table if their totals had been combined.

It may have been larger in that Team sports would probably have seen more medals with the best of the other Athletes joined  the larger Russians as happened with Team GB and NI.) and if you include athletes from former Soviet Republics who failed to win Medals Turkmenistan,  Kyrgyzstan then it increases.

Is this an argument for the reconstruction  of the USSR ?
Of course not. Try telling all the Olympians from these countries they would be better of competing for the Hammer and Sickle.

There were 85 counties on the Medal Table at this years Olympics from  the USA 46 Gold 29 Silver 29 Bronze (total 104) to  Tajikistan (TJK) single Bronze 

But Tajikistan must be as proud of their Bronze as the USA their haul,

But 119 of the 204 counties taking part failed to win a single medal .

Should these counties look to merge with others to  get on the Medal Table ?

Or was the sight of their Nations Flag at the opening ceremony pride enough and any Medal after a terrific bonus and Gold even more precious?

Even if Scotland where to vote for Independence in 2014 Olympic rules might mean that they may not be able to compete in Rio in 2016.

But the future of Scotland will not be measured in Medals but in the welfare and prosperity of its people and that's where the true argument lies.

Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Eileen Beasley a true Torch Bearer.

The Death of Eileen Beasley, deserved to have had greater coverage in the media than it did

Her (and husband Trefor)  courageous stand in early 1950 post war  Britain in braving bailiffs and court appearances to demand a Welsh language tax bill  that saw their goods and furniture seized by the courts.. Has some to call  her  the Rosa Parks of Wales.

Though since Parks, made her stand against American segregation  laws  3 years  after the Beasley's made their stand It give the impression that they were inspired by the civil rights movement rather than acted on their own sense of injustice .

Though to my mind both can be seen as the first step by a people to fight for equality in their own land.

Some would people who claim to support Human Rights would  argue that that fighting to use the Welsh Language is nothing like as important as the issues facing Rosa Parks and her fellow Black Americans in the deep South where they segregated and treated as inferiors and effectively denned the right  to vote
How often have some on the Left argued that the campaign for Welsh language equality is the face of narrow minded nationalism.

But justice is not about degrees,and the denial of people to use their own Language in their own country is the same as denying citizens the right to ride in the front of the Bus because of their colour.

But there  can be do doubt that the American Civil Rights movement which found new impetus  from Rosa Parks  and the campaign there was a huge influence on the campaign for Welsh to be given equal status here and on the tactics of peaceful protest. through civil disobedience.

When she took her stand about a simple request  Cymdeithas yr Iaith was  a decade from its birth

Eileen eventually won her case but d after 16 court appearances Eileen Beasley was left with little but an empty house to show for her fight to put Welsh on an equal footing with English.

And true equality was still a long way off.

Eileen Beasley deserves to be honoured in the same manner as Rosa Parks and other Civil Rights campaigners  throughout the World and her death hopeful will lead to people in Wales to reflect on her stand and the campaigns that followed to seek equality of both our Languages in Wales and how much further we have to go to see Welsh be given equal status.

Maybe S4 C and the BBC can mark this occasion by commissioning  a Dram base don the Beasley's stand in the 1950's . Bur I suspect that all the funding will be diverted to programmes like Holby City that the BBC claim that since its filmed in Wales its a Welsh programme.

Monday, 13 August 2012

Ian Davidson accuses BBC of bias.

Scottish Labour MP clearly is a fan or the   Former Lions Captain Willie John Mcbride  tactic of Get your retaliation in claiming that Newsnight Scotland is biased towards the Scottish National Party.

On Tuesday night, in which the Davidson referred to the programme as “News-nat Scotland”, He accused it of pro-SNP bias and refused presenter Isabel Fraser’s demands to apologize.

The row was over who had the power to call a referendum. With Davidson (probably correctly) that a  Scottish Government  called referendum was open to a legal challenge .

Isabel Fraiser first offence was to accept Davidson argument but to question whether a legal challenge would succeed.

Her second Offence was to question Davidson solution the UK of transferring the power but then controlling the wording and number of questions.

Fraiser clearly didn't realise that her job was to nod along with Davidson and feed him questions on the lines of of "Do you think that when people voted for the SNP they were also voting for Independence.?

Faced with Fraiser's sceptical questioning Davidson made his accusation.

You may think Davidson is appearing as a Bully but he clearly has an agenda in making  sure the BBC realised its job is to toe the line and be unbiased i.e don't question the Unionist arguments (especially Labour) to closely.

His idea of biased is anyone who disagrees with his view.

Far from condemning Davidson  large segments of the other media have used it to combine BBC Bashing with Nat Bashing .  A dream they cherish.

The Unionist clearly think that the best way to deal with Scottish Independence calls is to treat Scotland in the same way their predecessors treated the colonies with arrogance.and the We know whats best for you attitude.

Davidson may have succeed in making sure that the BBC is on board with the rest of the media in making the Unionist case and that the Corporation realises that when Davidson and his ilk talk about bias they me not agrreing with them.

Sunday, 12 August 2012

Quebec elections 2012.

After my last post on renaming the the Welsh Assembly perhaps a   its a good time to look at another National Assembly  that of Quebec  ( Assemblé nationale du Québec)  particularly as Quebec general election of 2012 is set to take place in the  on September 4, 2012. 

Lieutenant Governor Pierre Duchesne dissolved the National Assembly on August 1, 2012, following Premier Jean Charest's request.

The National Assembly was formerly the lower house of Quebec's legislature and was then called the Legislative Assembly of Quebec. In 1968, the upper house, the Legislative Council, was abolished and the remaining house was renamed.. So may we don't really name to change.

The Assemble has powers that Wales and indeed Scotland can only dream about illustrated by The Lesage  Liberal government of, 1962 and When Rene Lévesque a minister in that government "Nationalised Quebec"  Hydro. Since then it has achieved almost mythical status in Quebec and has become a symbol of Quebecois identity  in the same manner Mondragon has become for the Basques.

Levessque went on to form  Parti Québécois  leading them to the government of the "province" and further increase Quebec's powers but failed in his dream for independence

The  2012 Election in Quebec is very different from that of those in Wales and Scotland in that only the Liberals of the Federal Parties take part.

The main contenders are in the 2012 election are ..

Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) seats  64/125 

Is the  federalist provincial political party in Quebec.that fights seats in the Assemblé although  It has been independent of the federal Liberal Party of Canada since 1955. (and not in the same way as Welsh or Scottish  Westminster parties)

The party has traditionally supported Quebec federalism, meaning it is in favour of Quebec remaining within Canada, and operating within Canadian federalism. While it is sometimes described as centre-right in the context of Quebec politics,[the party believes in a strong role for government in the economy and supports socially liberal policies.

Since its most recent election the Liberal government has faced a number of scandals, including historic losses at the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, the attribution of highly-sought subsidized daycare spaces to Liberal Party donors, as well as allegations of systemic construction industry corruption which arose notably during the 2009 Montréal municipal election. After public pressure, the Liberal government eventually called for a public commission of inquiry.  Premier Jean Charest's personal approval ratings have at times been lower than those of other premiers.

Charest may be gambling on calling on the election before corruption enquireys get underway and a public backlash a student protest pver Gharest's plans to raise university tuition from $2,168 to $3,793 between 2012 and 2017.which has seen street protest clashes with the police though his introduction of Bill 78 which aimed to prevent such protest has been seen as over authoritarian and has seen some who were not sympathetic to the students joining the protest.

Parti Québécois (PQ) seats 47/125 

Is a centre-left provincial political party  and is the party which most resembles Plaid and the SNP  that advocates national sovereignty for the province and secession from Canada .Unlike Plaid and the SNP  The Party traditionally has support from the labour movement.but unlike many other social-democratic parties, its ties with the labour movement are informal. 

Because the New Democratic Party does not fight  Assemblé seats,  some of its members and supporters are free to back PQ .

Under its current leader  Pauline Marois. it has undergone a period of infighting and has failed to exploit the discontent with Charest's Liberals '

However, it seems that the PQ are narrowly ahead d in the polls but  are hampered by the formation of a new Party

The Coalition Avenir Québec (or CAQ)  seats 9/125

Is a newly formed  political party in Quebec. Its politics have been described in the press as centre-right, but the party describes itself as of neither the left nor the right. It also describes itself as of centre-right on economic issues, while left of centre on social ones. 

It was founded by former PQ  cabinet minister François Legault and businessman Charles Sirois; Legault also serves as its leader and includes former members of .The Action démocratique du Québec, ADQ a right wing party won 41 seats in the 2007 election but the fell spetacually back and were almost wiped out at the last election.

 The party membership of CAO  includes both sovereignists and federalists (i.e., supporters and opponents of Quebec sovereignty); however it has called for a ten-year moratorium on any new sovereignty referendum.

It is fluctuating in the Pole but has benefited from running populist candidates like former Montreal police chief Jacques Duchesneau who has been leading a anti corruption campaign.

Two Other Parties may have some influence 

Québec solidaire (QS)  seats 1/125  is a social-democratic and sovereigntist political party , It  has been formed of various left wing groups including members of the NDP , feminists and  Ecologist its philosophy  is summed up as 

  • "Nous sommes écologistes" ("We are environmentalists")
  • "Nous sommes de gauche" ("We are on the Left")
  • "Nous sommes démocrates" ("We are democrats")
  • "Nous sommes féministes" ("We are feminists")
  • "Nous sommes altermondialistes" ("We are alter-globalists")
  • "Nous sommes d'un Québec pluriel" ("We are from a plural Quebec")
  • "Nous sommes d'un Québec souverain et solidaire" ("We are from a sovereign and supportive Quebec")
  • "Un autre parti, pour un autre Québec!" ("Another party, for another Quebec!")
The fact that these groups have managed to fall out and  also to support Quebec autonomy is a lesson to the Left in Wales and Scotland

QS are likely to win about  2 seats but may find themselves in a position of power.

Option nationale  Seats 1/125  Was a.  was founded in 2011 by Jean-Martin Aussant, a member o fAssemblé nationale  who had quit the Parti Québécois ) earlier that year after being elected in 2008. 

Frustrated with PQ commitment  to Sovrignity it is a reverse of CAO  It is a center-left party which advocates the sovereignty of Quebec from Canada, and says a vote for Option nationale is an electoral mandate for full-fledged autonomy (de facto sovereignty), before a referendum to adopt the constitution of Quebec as an independent nation-state (de jure sovereignty).

Its best hope is Aussant, retaining his seat 

The current Polls suggest a hung  Assemblé nationale  with a coalition government the likely ourcome .But who it will consist off is widley open.  Where it leads for  those seeking Quebec Independence may be a big question over the next years.