I will unfortunately not be blogging g for a wji!e as I have broken a collarbone.Aauzd
Thursday 5 November 2020
There seems to be some confusion on whether the English Government has decided follow those in Wales and refrain from selling some goods such as clothes and books during its new lockdown.
Nayion Cymru report that
Which seems a pretty way of saying that if you have section like my local Tesco Store which has an upstairs section selling "non-Essential goods" and some very clear distinction between other goods like groceries down stairs , then they will be cordoned of and it will only be in smaller stores where thiswil happen
Under the new restrictions, people should stay at home except for specific reasons including education and work (if it cannot be done from home).
What seems odd is that the Prime Minister and Chancellor did not make this clear during the debate in the House of Commons.
We do know that up to now the Welsh and English Tories all opposed the the Welsh Governments lockdown rules .
Mr Jones, along with all other north Wales Conservative politicians in the Senedd and the Commons, had opposed local lockdowns being imposed in north Wales in September.
Whether the English Government had plans to follow the Welsh completely is unlikely , though they may well have decided that they can get away with anything these days even such hypocrisy.
The normally bumptious Andrew rT Davies seems to be somewhat muted and even have deleted some of his tweets,
But he and the many who rightly or wrongly criticise the Welsh Government often using near-racist language only to be mute when it happens in England is outstanding,
Wednesday 4 November 2020
The latest Welsh Political Barometer Poll come as a bit of a disappointment , I have Professor Roger Awan-Scully analysis , which is in Green with my comments in black.
The poll was carried out online by YouGov from 26-30 October 2020 so the recent surge in Yes/Cymru supporters may not have yet began.
Our most recent poll, in September, put Labour in single-point leads over the Conservatives for all three voting intention questions asked: general election voting intention and the two Senedd ballots. How do things stand now? Let’s look first at Westminster: here are the latest figures (with changes since September’s poll in brackets):
Labour: 43% (+2)
Conservatives: 32% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (-2)
Brexit Party: 5% (+1)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 3% (+1)
Others: 2% (no change)
These figures demonstrate limited movement in party support since our last poll; indeed, all of the changes seen here are well within the standard ‘margin of error’, suggesting that there has been no fundamental shift in public preferences in the nearly two month period since the last Barometer poll was conducted. Labour will, though, undoubtedly be pleased to register their highest Westminster vote intention in Wales since December 2018. Such findings are broadly in line with what recent Britain-wide polling has been showing, with a modest Conservative weakening and slight improvements for Labour in recent weeks bringing the two parties more-or-less level.
What might these numbers from the new Barometer poll mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method of projecting swings since the last general election uniformly across Wales generates the following projected outcome in terms of seats (with changes from the December 2019 election result indicated in brackets):
Labour: 27 (+5)
Conservatives: 9 (-5)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)
The projected Labour gains from the Conservatives are (in order of marginality from the 2019 general election) Delyn, Bridgend, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd and Ynys Mon; of the swathe of Welsh Conservative gains in the December 2019 general election, only Wrexham is now (very narrowly) projected to remain blue.
Basically it looks like that a Pre December status will remain and the socalled RED WALL in Wales at least will be partially rebuilt
The picture for devolved voting intentions is not quite so stable as for Westminster. Here are the findings of our new poll for the constituency ballot (with changes in support from September’s poll once more indicated in brackets):
Labour: 38% (+4)
Conservatives: 27% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (-4)
Brexit Party: 5% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 3% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Others: 4% (+1)
Here we see a rather greater strengthening of Labour support, alongside a weakening for Plaid Cymru and (though to a lesser extent, and within the standard sampling error margin) for the Conservatives. These are once again Labour’s best numbers since December 2018. It is also interesting that there is also no improvement for the Liberal Democrats from their historically poor figure in our last poll.
A uniform swing projection of the changes in party support since May 2016 indicated by this poll suggests that only one constituency seat in the Senedd would change hands, with the Conservatives very narrowly gaining the Vale of Glamorgan from Labour.
And what about the regional list vote? Here our new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since September’s poll again indicated in brackets):
Of course one of the factors here may be Brecon and Radnor which may not be a safe seat for the sole Liberal Democrat with the announcement that Kirsty Williams from the Senedd and will not be standing , leaving it to the possibility of a Tory gain
Labour: 33% (no change)
Conservatives: 24% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (-3)
Abolish the Assembly: 7% (+3)
Brexit Party: 5% (+1)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)
Unlike for the constituency vote, we see here no improvement in Labour’s support. But there are similar declines for both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. And, perhaps most strikingly of all, there is a further rise in support for the anti-devolution Abolish the Assembly party. Their seven percent support in this poll is their highest ever figure registered in a Barometer poll and equals the highest level of support they have registered in any public poll – matching their score in the December 2018 Sky Data poll. Along with the five percent support scored by the Brexit Party, this does emphasise that there is a significant constituency of support in Wales for Euro- and devo-sceptic populist political options; were such voters to have a single clear option to unite around in next May’s election they might well deliver a significant number of seats to such a party.
Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once again assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Senedd’s regional list seats:
North Wales: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
From all these figures we thus produce the following overall projected result for the Senedd:
Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional)
Conservatives: 16 seats (7 constituency, 9 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 11 seats (6 constituency, 5 regional)
Abolish the Assembly: 4 seats (4 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
Overall, our new poll certainly does not suggest that Labour in Wales are suffering negative political consequences from the firebreak lockdown. If anything the opposite would appear to be the case, with the party’s support appearing to strengthen more substantially for the Senedd constituency vote than for Westminster. In addition to factors common to politics across Britain – such as declining ratings for Prime Minister Johnson, dissatisfaction with the UK government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, and the impact of Sir Keir Starmer on perceptions of Labour – the persistence of a major crisis in an area of devolved competence like health has brought devolved politics to the fore. At present, this appears to be playing to Labour’s advantage in Wales. But it may also be helping an explicitly anti-devolution party like Abolish the Assembly harvest additional support from some of those who resent the distinct approach to handling the crisis taken by government in Wales.
Though if the Liberal Democrats were to lose Brecon and Radnor , the they could make up for it with one of the Mid and West Wales:, seats though who would lose out sems unclear.
There's an interesting analysis by Ioan Phillips "Why Faragist politics are doomed to fail in Wales" , which points out that
Tuesday 3 November 2020
Wales’ First Minister has said that Wales already has a “huge degree of independence” but that membership of the UK is an “insurance policy” in times of financial hardship.
Some "insurance policy" that pays up when the affluent South of England join the rest of tat country in another lockdown but refuses to do so when Wales and Scotland and indeed the North of England put a similar claim in earlier.
Nation Cymru tell us that
“But at the same time we are able to draw on the strength of the United Kingdom. We wouldn’t be talking about millions of extra pounds for Welsh businesses if it wasn’t for the fact we are part of a big insurance policy that is the United Kingdom. Paying in when we can, drawing out when we need it.
In this case Wales is like a house that has been constantly flooded and the Insurance company sets too high a premium, but also is responsible for the flooding (literary when it come to Tryweryn) in the first place.
Mr Drakeford finds himself in a curious position .
He knows that there is extreme disquiet within Wales over the failure of the response of the uK government in its response to handling the Covid 19 virus and would likely have sought to have established a more robust reaction in Wales but still cannot bring himself to react in some quarters for being seen as too much of a "Welsh Nationalist".
So in some ways Mr Davies is aping Mark Drakeford in arguing for a Welsh solution to the Covid 19 virus albite a very diffrent one.
I suspect the Tories in Wales have worked ou that there may be a minority opposed to the firebreak , but they are potential voted worth harvesting.
But in the end both Labour and the Tories are going to have to respond to to the growing YesCymru movement .
I doubt very much they have learned the lesson from Scotland and that stopping the tide is going to take more than relying on an issuance policy from an increasingly dodgy provide.