Sunday, 26 May 2019

There is no constitutional reason for next PM to call GE2019.


I must admit I do not share the view that because a governing party changes their leader then there should be a General Election to follow.

As Bella Caledonia points out 
Yesterday I tweeted that there’s “only about 70,000 members of the Conservative Party. Basically a dwindling coterie of some of the worst people in Britain are about to choose a candidate from a selection of some of the most repugnant politicians in the UK. That person will be our Prime Minister.”That was untrue.
It turns out the Conservative Party has nearer 120,000 members in the UK (source Laura McAllister & Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University).So that means that 0.18% of the UK will soon decide the next Prime Minister of the UK & the fate of the UK.

Of course it is the Monarch  who appoints the Prime MInister (and would probably be the same under a President) the person elected to the leadership of the Tories will have to go Lizzie and ask for permission to form a government

It could be that the election contests so divides the Tories  that he or she may suggest that it is impossible to form a government and either recommend  that Lizzie calls for Jeremy Corbyn to have a go or call a General Election.

Of course we do things differently in the Assembly  and Scottish Parliament where it is the members of that body who approve the next First Minister.

Something that Scottish Tory Leader Ruth Davidson seems to have missed.


But, obviously, fine for a First Minister to be 'installed' in Bute House without a Holyrood election. Eh, Nicola?
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2. Her departure will not solve the Brexit mess that the Tories have created. Only putting the matter back to the people can do that. Given current circumstances, it also feels deeply wrong for another Tory to be installed in Number 10 without a General Election.
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Some may remember that The Labour party was  faced with deadlock in the Welsh assembly after an informal coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and Ukip successfully blocked a vote to reappoint Carwyn Jones as the country’s first minister.
The leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood, was able to draw level with Jones in the vote on Wednesday, with 29 assembly members each. The nationalist leader received the unlikely support of the Tories and Ukip.
Throwing the process into confusion, the meeting was adjourned until further notice and the parties were expected to begin talks in an attempt to break the stalemate.
Eventually Carwyn Jones became First Minister  but it proved that the leader of the largest party does  not necessarily become become First Minster and the leader of a Coalition does.

The same could be said of Westminster , where we do not seek public approval for a coalition government after an election.

As I have pointed out before  the Prime Minister of such a coalition does not necessarily demand that this would be the leader of the largest party and there would be nothing unconstitutional in a Lab,SNP,Lib Dem, Green  rainbow coalition   that Plaid's Liz Saville Roberts could be UK Prime Minister.

The chances are I admit highly unlikely, but it does show that whoever emerges from the bloodbath of the Tory leadership contest  has no constitutional impairment to becoming Prime Minister and there is no reason he or she should call a General Election.

of course if the contest saw  a rise of the Tories in the polls they man gamble of an election , but unfortunately  that is up to them.

Saturday, 25 May 2019

Who ever wins Tory Leadership may not be in NO 10 for long.

It is  perhaps in the genes of politicians, that they are directed to the leadership of their party and thinking they could be Prime Minister.
Even when their party is in a slump , there is always those who aspire to leadership even if the polls suggest that it will be short lived.
After the 1997 Labour Landslide Tony Blair saw of, three Tory opposition leaders , William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard and Duncan-Smith was deemed so inept he never led his party into an election.
The rule seems to be if you lose an election , then you resign as leader , though Kinnock had two goes at it . 
The race to become the next Conservative Party leader has begun, following Theresa May's announcement that she will step down next month.
The contest will not only result in a new party leader, but also in the next prime minister of the UK, but how long will the winner be in Number 10.
Certainly they are helped by the fact that Jeremy Corbyn does not sem to have moved his base and his Pro-Brexit stance has alienated Remainers ,in away his left wing politics did not in the last election.
Conservative Party bosses expect a new leader to be chosen by the end of July.
Mrs May confirmed on Friday that she will resign as party leader on 7 June, but will continue as PM while the leadership contest takes place.
She agreed with chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, that the process to choose a new leader should begin the week after she stands down.
Several potential candidates have already set out their stalls as Mrs May announced she was leaving on June 7 and there could be over nine in the field.
Boris Johnson is favourite and is popular amongst the Tory membership.but MPs?
Those who share my Progressive Left  views should not however believe that the Torys under Johnson Premiership would be voted out in the next election.
In 1975 there was much mirth in Labour quarters when a right wing "housewife" ousted  the "One Nation Tory" Edward Heath .
But Margaret Thatcher yes with events like the SDP splitting the Labour vote and the Falklands  Factor, she saw of all the  opposition before being brought low by her own party.
Hopefully  whoever the next Tory leader to enter Number  10 will not be there for long but they could still screw the UK up as May has done  in the meantime.
But the lesson  for Wales that has been leaned in Scotland  that if you dont't want to be governed by the Tories a party you did not want , then Labour 's not the answer  but Independence is .



Friday, 24 May 2019

Have "Welsh" Labour and Remain voters switched votes ?

I must admit I began to get a bit worried about the #PlaidFirstTime twitter  responses as it all looks to good to be true .

Throughout the day I was inundated with these sought of tweets



For the first time in my life I didn’t vote Labour today. I can’t support a party that refuses to recognise the damage Brexit will cause in Wales and the UK. Plaid’s stance on brexit, the far right and the environment got my vote. #PlaidFirstTime
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Being 16 I am not able to vote yet. However I was able to convince my parents to instead of voting Labour to vote for Plaid since they are the only party who care and stand up for Wales against the Brexit Bunch, just like I when I come of age. #VotePlaid #PlaidFirstTime
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If they are genione then Plaid seem to be heading for a very good night on Sunday.

What I do know is that  ex-Welsh Government minister has quit the Labour Party and voted for the Greens, labelling his former party a "pro-Brexit anti-Semitic shambles".
Leighton Andrews was the Labour AM for Rhondda until he lost his seat to then Plaid leader Leanne Wood in 2016 so he may not have been inclined to switch his vote to Plaid , but it could be a pointer to how a number of Labour Remainers might have.
But in the numbers  #PlaidFirstTime  indicate ? It would be a huge change in Welsh Politics
According to the BBC
Mr Andrews  said he had "loaned" his vote to the Green Party in the European elections because of the state Labour was in.
Mr Andrews is a supporter of a further EU referendum who has been critical of UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Mr Andrews served as Wales' education minister and public services minister.
n 2017 I voted Labour, and my vote has been waved around with that of millions of others as an endorsement of the leadership's plans for a better Brexit," Mr Andrews wrote on his blog, explaining why "I've loaned my vote to the Greens".
He added that he would like to rejoin the party, but warned if "Labour enables Brexit, I won't be back".
As well as accusing the Labour leadership of allowing the party to become a "pro-Brexit anti-Semitic shambles", Leighton Andrews said "the far-right is on the march. Labour leadership could have pointed the way to a progressive alternative. Instead, it ducks the key decision of our time."
"When my postal ballot arrived two weeks ago, I returned it immediately with a cross against the Greens," Mr Andrews said, praising the work of Green Party MP Caroline Lucas and the party's MEP Molly Scott Cato.
Blaenau Gwent Labour AM Alun Davies echoed many of Mr Andrews's criticisms of the party leadership.
He told BBC Wales "principled leadership" had been "missing" from the party over the past three years.
"This is a time for principled leadership rooted in our values. That is the minimum our candidates, our members and our supporters deserved.
"And it has been missing in this campaign. We need to look hard at this campaign and think hard about where we've been over the last three years.
"The far right have been on the march and Labour has been a spectator."
Mr Davies added that he thought Leighton Andrews's views "probably reflect the concerns and disappointment of most of our members".

 Political Betting  are claiming that  "Although there has been no exit or other polling there has been a mass of data from the local authority areas that began verifying the ballots overnight"

They say
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The big picture so far is in the headline – there’s a correlation between the percentage of those who voted yesterday and what the area did at the referendum. So far it seems that the more for Leave places were the lower turnout levels there were yesterdsy.Now we should be careful rushing to judgment here because all we have is data from a relatively small number of council area and, of course, what happened in the referendum. But if a significantly higher proportion of people voted in Remain area that does suggest that the Greens and LDs might be doing well.There has been no information from London yet – the ballot verifications are taking place in the morning – but I’m increasingly confident that my 7/2 bets on the LDs winning the vote in the capital might be a winner.The Tweet above is from Ashfield – a strong leave area where the turnout was low in comparison to, say, the 47% in the strong remain city of St Albans.
 
Perhaps  we will be seeing a different headline to  Brexit Party Sweep Wales (and UK) . Here's hoping any cynicism on my part is misplaced.