Thursday 31 March 2016

Does backing Port Talbot ruin my claims to be Green?

Max Boyce  used to tell a joke back in the '70s about two men standing at a bus stop on a cloudy day. "Excuse me," asks one to the other, "is that the sun or the moon up there?" "I dunno, mate," replies the other. "I'm from Port Talbot."

I suppose you could argue if I was really Green and a Environmentalist  I would be in some way welcoming the end of Steel making in Port Talbot. It is after all not a particularly  clean part of our Nation.

Indeed if it was still part of a Nationalised Industry , I expect the government would have been leaking  horror stories of pollution and effects on the health of the communities , for a number of years to run alongside the loss making.

But the Environment is also about people as well

Port Talbot is Tata's biggest UK plant with about 4,000 workers but councillor and ex-steelworker, Tony Taylor,  has said closure would have a much wider impact.
Mr Taylor said:
 "You've got to take into account 3,000 directly employed, 3,000 contractors, 6,000 in the supply chain and then you've got people who rely on the steel industry.
"You're talking about 15,000 jobs could be lost in a community like Neath Port Talbot."
The closure of Port Talbot would be decimating  for South Wales as a whole and the knock on effect will reach well beyond the boundaries of the borough.   

We have still not recovered from the devastation of the Tories ideological  closure of Steel Plants and Coal Mines in the eighties.  

In the 1930 some of may Mother Brothers left Wales in their teens to look for work in England and they  never returned apart to visit .

It would be tragic if this was to happen again

Looking  at the River Taff the other day an seeing someone fishing near the Treforest Industrial Estate I pondered whether  Margret  Thatcher could be claimed to be our Greenest  Prime Minister.

But being Green is not about de-industrialisation and we can't all in Tipi's in  Llandeilo .

Good luck to those who do but we can't sustain the rest of our communities   in such a way and we look at Industrial areas like Port Talbot  and working out how we can sustain it and also manage any environmental impact.

But in the long run this can only come from our own Government and not from Westminster Tory or Labour whose concerns despite  their rhetoric about "Northern Power Houses" where there is no devolved government are only concerned about the Bankers of the City of London , where there is almost an incestuous relationship.

Wednesday 30 March 2016

Ukip still divided over Racist Slur Candidates.

I don't know what is worse fro an aspiring Politician being praised by Neil Hamilton or condemned by Nigel Farage.
Neil Hamilton has defended fellow Ukip National Assembly candidate Gareth Bennett, who has been accused of a "shocking slur" after criticising the multiracial nature of Cardiff and saying Eastern Europeans were responsible for some rubbish problems .

The former Tory MP said said unemployed Mr Bennett was "a nice chap" and "would make a very good AM" and said he was not a "racist or unpleasant person".
Maybe he could have phrased his comments a bit better, but he’s not an experienced politician.
“A lot of Ukip’s public appeal is based on the fact that many of its candidates are not experienced politicians.
“I’ve met him several times. He’s not a racist or an unpleasant person. In fact he’s a nice chap and I think he’ll make a very good AM.
“Anyway, the fuss seems to have died down. It was a squib. I don’t see the regional list candidates being changed now.”
However   party leader Nigel Farage has distanced himself  from Mr Bennett was not the sort of person UKIP would be "proud" to have as an assembly member after the election on 5 May.
Mr Bennett has been chosen as UKIP's lead candidate in the south Wales central region.
Mr Farage said he was "less than impressed" by Mr Bennett's comments.
Speaking in Newport, Mr Farage told BBC Wales he was not involved in candidate selection, but added:

"All I can say is the utterances that I've seen from that individual - he doesn't look to me, at the moment, to be the kind of person we'd be proud of in a few weeks' time."
As leader I have nothing to do with it [selecting candidates], but I'm less than impressed on what I've seen.

In his insightful analysis on the prospect of the Parties in the Welsh Assembly Elections  Oggy Bloggy Ogwr  writes that
I wouldn't mind one or two credible UKIP AMs in the Assembly to break the complacency that dominates current proceedings (same for the Greens and the minor parties) and give AMs from the "Big Four" a well-deserved and long-overdue kick up the arse. -
The Bay Bubble has gotten a bit too cosy and self-reverent, and AMs have been mostly shielded from some of the genuine hostility and antipathy many people feel towards devolution and the Assembly. AMs have never been properly challenged (for better or, in UKIP's case, for worse), need to start thinking on their feet more often and need to strengthen their arguments. So for the other parties, the election of a UKIP cohort will reveal who amongst their own ranks truly deserves to be there.

Which came as bit of a shock but fortunately he continues
Any more than one or two will become grating if the candidates aren't up to the task. Let's face it, despite attempts at putting a professional spin on things, the goings on of the last 6-8 weeks show UKIP up as a single-issue 1970s-inspired comedy club, not a serious political party that has anything constructive to say on the future of public services in Wales.
I understand why people would consider voting for UKIP en masse as I'm often as frustrated with politics, parties and politicians as anyone else - but when it comes down to it it's a dumb move. Current AMs are far from perfect but I wouldn't exchange them for this lot in a million years; though I suppose the price you pay for living in a democracy is that we have the freedom to make bad choices.

And there he hits  the nail  on the head . In America not being part of the Washington Bubble  even experienced ones is often the first claim of an aspiring politician of any party.

Unfortunately this has led to an Anti-intellectualism where stupidity can be potrayed as down to earth honesty.

This appears to the same case for Ukip. Whether there are even one or two credible Ukip candidates is open to question recent events seem to point to the negative.

Tuesday 29 March 2016

What are "Christian Values?" Does Cameon speak for them?

I am an agnostic leaning towards atheism I can not be 100% sure that there is no form of supreme being (or beings even).

In that I disagree with Professor Richard Dawkins and his apparent fundamental atheism ,

I am prepared to keep an a gap  if not an entirely open mind on the existence of God.

But I like to think I have values and certainly different values tha Prime Minister David Camerom who protects the Rich while stamping on the poor or his predecessor War monger Tony Blair.

So  I am not sure what Cameron  means by

The UK must "stand together and defend" its Christian values in the face of threats from terrorism,
The prime minister said responsibility, hard work and compassion were important to people "of every faith and none".

So what are Christian Values?

New Testament teachingThe biblical teachings of Jesus include:[
  • Love of God: "You shall love the Lord your God with all of your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your might." (an excerpt from the Shema Deut.6:5), -Matthew 22:37
  • Fidelity in marriage: "Whom God has joined together let no man put asunder", derived from -Matthew 19:6
  • Renunciation of worldly goods: "Gather not your riches up upon this earth, for there your heart will be also", (Matthew 6:21)
  • Forgiveness of sins: "Forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us", (Matthew 6:12)
  • Unconditional love: "Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you". (Luke 6:27-28)
Modern use in worldwide right-wing politicsi n the 21st century United States, Australia, UK and other countries, the phrases "Christian values" and "family values" are used by Christian right and conservative political groups to describe some or all of the following political stances:
  • censorship of sexual content, especially in movies and on television.[4]
  • the desirability of laws against induced abortion
  • sexual abstinence outside of marriage and abstinence-only education[5]
  • the promotion of intelligent design to be taught in public schools and colleges as an alternative to evolution.[6]
  • the desirability of laws against same-sex marriage
  • support for laws against the acceptance of homosexuality into mainstream society[7]
  • the desirability of organized prayer in public schools[8]
Modern use in worldwide liberal politics in the 21st century United States, Australia, UK and other countries, the phrases "Christian values" and "family values" are used by liberal political groups to describe some or all of the following political stances:
  • support for a culture of empathy and compassion, seen as central to Christianity among a diverse range of religions and worldviews; favouring individuals, families (of all compositions) and small communities' interests over the interests of large corporations and the powerful;
  • protection of the environment as the product of a deep reverence for God's creation;
  • the undesirability of war other than as a last resort, and a respect for diplomacy (see Swords to ploughshares);
  • a living wage for all, seen as a mark of concern for the physical welfare of "the least among us"
  • a high, progressive income tax to promote greater income equality in keeping with Jesus' words in support of the poor and against excessive riches;
  • promoting Render unto Caesar as an endorsement of secular governance separation of church and state] and religious tolerance, consistent with the concept of Christ's kingdom not being "of this world" and warnings against the hunger for potentially corrupting temporal power throughout the Bible.

I suppose I tend to agree with the liberal christian values , but that does not make me a Christian .

Just a Human Being.

 Certainly I believe the Christian Values of Conservative or Liberal Politicians are not superior to any other value .

Mine are definitely not the Values of Cameron or Blair and since many Christians do not share the "Values" of the two. How dare they define them for Christians let alone the rest of us.

Monday 28 March 2016

Wales has "broken away" from England in Education ?

 Huw Lewis interview valedictory as Welsh Education Minister came with a interesting soundbite
He made the claim that Wales has "broken away" from England and is now capable of setting its own agenda thanks to devolution, 
The Merthyr and Rhymney AM will stand down before this year's election after 17 years in Cardiff Bay.
The former chemistry teacher described taking on the education portfolio as "a dream come true" and said reforms to the curriculum and teacher training were two of his proudest achievements.
Speaking to BBC Wales He said: "

The old England and Wales schools-based education agenda no longer exists.
"Wales now has its own distinctive path and own distinctive future in terms of what our schools are going to look like."
He said the reforms happening here were based on "real evidence" and not "ideologically driven", which is what he fears is happening in England with the "marketisation of education".
By implementing a Scandinavian-style model - that includes children learning through play - he hopes teachers will be better skilled and standards will rise.
"We're not emulating England, we're emulating the best," Mr Lewis said.
This is despite an assumption he believes is made by many that Wales should see England as a "gold standard" and if something different is tried here, it is somehow suspect and second rate.
"I hope, that as devolution has matured over the years, we are finally beginning to break away from that kind of mentality," he added.
"We are quite capable of setting out our own agenda and following it and basing it, in global terms, on what the best looks like.
"That's the real dividend from devolution. That should always be where we're thinking.''

There is little evidence yet that after  17 years of Labour goverment in Cardiff of the outstanding results that come out of Schools in the Scandinavian Nations But  it might take a generation   for the current reforms to bear fruit.

The problem may well be that a future Welsh Government may find itself compared to the Academy system which English parents and pupils face having forced on them.

I do not believe that Academies ae the but we will be faced with Conservative and some Labour Politicians cherry picking results to claim tha education under their governance is a success ,. Despite their handing over control to Academies and faith schools .

There are indications that several city academies are failing. Ofsted has placed the Unity City Academy] in Middlesbrough and the Richard Rose Central Academy in Carlisle under special measures, heavily criticised the West London Academy in Ealing and condemned standards at the Business Academy in Bexley, Kent.

Leaders of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat groups in the Local Government Association have combined to oppose plans to force all English schools to become academies.
In a joint letter to the Observer, they urge ministers to reconsider the plans.

There is no evidence that academies perform better than council maintained schools.
"Where a school is failing, there is no question that action must be taken - but converting every school, regardless of performance, to an academy will not tackle those issues."
It goes on: "Schools value the option to become academies - and the support they receive from their local councils to do so - where they believe this is in the best interests of their students and communities.
"Forcing the change upon every school goes against, in many cases, what parents and teachers want, and there will be a large financial implication for local authorities at a time when communities are already suffering the impact of significant budget 

What we need after May is not ideological dogma as is happening  in England , where the Tories are taking a policy introduced by Labour ti new highs.

It will be inevitable that such a system will lead to selection and a first and second class system  (and may be third class in some areas).

However in the long wrong Wales needs to break away from England in the media and many other areas . Otherwise we risk (s happened recently with the Welsh NHS)   the UK Prime Minister backed by pointing to the Welsh Education system as failing  even when if people could see the evidence his or hers is collapsing around them

Sunday 27 March 2016

Nightmare might end up a dream.

Since its Easter  I thought you might like this especially if you in despair  at the prospect of Donald Trump  winning the US Presidency .

Even  Hillary Clinton's   actual record in government doesn't fill me with hope .

For us wishy washy liberals however there is still a glimmer of hope and proof that there are let wing idealist  in the USA ad Bernie Saunders  offers something different from  Donald Trumps imitation of Mussolini which incidentally the Simpson's creators caught on to way back in 2005.

But lets get back to Bernie  who actually admits to being a Socials  His campaign well may well have been boosted with this intervention at a rally from an unusual ,

Since then then the  Vermont Sen. s swept to victory in the Democratic caucuses in Alaska and Washington state Saturday, as he sought to cut intoHillary Clinton's commanding delegate lead and gain fresh momentum in his bid for their party's presidential nomination.Sanders also sought to capture Hawaii's caucuses Saturday.Washington state, with 101 delegates up for grabs, was Saturday’s biggest prize. Sanders fought hard for the state, holding big rallies in the last week to drive turnout among the kinds of young and liberal voters who have helped him prevail in earlier caucuses.

Who knows what looks like a nightmare may well be a dream.

Saturday 26 March 2016

Easter Rising commemorated.

Tomorrow will what I hope will see the commemoration rather than celebration of the Easter Rising.

I sat hope because as a pacifist I don't see that it is right to celebrate an action that saw the Deaths of so many people.

Organised by seven members of the Military Council of the Irish Republican Brotherhood,the Rising began on Easter Monday, 24 April 1916, and lasted for six days. Members of the Irish Volunteers — led by schoolmaster and Irish language activist Pádraig Pearse;, joined by the smaller Irish Citizen Army of James Connolly and 200 members of Cumann na mBan — seized key locations in Dublin and proclaimed an Irish Republic. There were isolated actions in other parts of Ireland, with an attack on the Royal Irish Constabulary barracks at Ashbourne, County Meath and abortive attacks on other barracks in County Galway and at Enniscorthy, County Wexford.
With vastly superior numbers and artillery, the British Army quickly suppressed the Rising, and Pearse agreed to an unconditional surrender on Saturday 29 April. After the surrender, all of Ireland remained under martial law. About 3,500 people were taken prisoner by the British, many of whom played no part in the Rising, and 1,800 of them were sent to internment camps or prisons in Britain.T he most prominent of which was Frongoch near Bala

Most of the leaders of the Rising were executed following courts-martial. The Rising succeeded in bringing physical force republicanism back to the forefront of Irish politics, and support for republicanism continued to rise in Ireland. In December 1918, republicans (by then represented by the Sinn Féin party) won a landslide victory in the general election to the British Parliament, on a policy of abstentionism and Irish independence. On 21 January 1919 they convened the First Dáil and declared the independence of the Irish Republic, which led to the Irish War of Independence.
Almost 500 people were killed in the Easter Rising. About 54% were civilians, 30% were British military and police, and 16% were Irish rebels. More than 2,600 were wounded. Most of the civilians were killed as a result of the British using artillery and heavy machine guns, or mistaking civilians for rebels. The shelling and the fires it caused left parts of inner city Dublin in ruins.

It is wel known that initially the rising met wit Hostility from Dubliners  but the executions almost immediately  saw a change in opinion throughout Ireland.

Which was maybe Pádraig Pearse's intention.  Easter being associated with sacrifice after all .

We can only speculate  what would have happened if The Prime Minister, H. H. Asquith, introduced the Bill on 11 April 1912. Home Rule Bill had come into force before the outbreak of the first World War Allowing more autonomy than its two predecessors, the bill provided for:
  • A bicameral Irish Parliament to be set up in Dublin (a 40-member Senate and a 164-member House of Commons) with powers to deal with most national affairs;
  • A number of Irish MPs would continue to sit in the Parliament of the United Kingdom (42 MPs, rather than 103).
  • The abolition of Dublin Castle administration, though with the retention of the Lord Lieutenant.
Would the future of Ireland  have seen Ireland becoming more like Canada or Australia?
Would it have seen Unionists in Ulster who were opposed to a home-rule Ireland governed from Dublin having their own Rising 

 They were  in fact partly  responsible  for Dublin in 1916

 Early in 1912, they began forming small local militias. By April 1912, the Irish Unionist leader, Sir Edward Carson, could review 100,000 marching Ulster Volunteers. On 28 September 1912, over 500,000 Unionists signed the Ulster Covenant pledging to defy Home Rule by all means possible. 

This led to the formation of the Irish Volunteers to defend Home Rule a minority of which took part in Easter week.

Indeed it is likely that we would have sen a Civil War between Unionist and Irish Nationlist with a UK government imposing Martial Law and suspending the New Parliament.

Which would then see another rising and more bloody than Easter or the subsequent Civil war  

The Easter Rising  may have led to Tragic aftermath  including a Civil War between those who accepted the treaty which saw more deaths in the rising.

Despite  my pacifist leanings it may well be that the rising actually  prevented a more violent conflict, especially if after the 1918 the now Tory dominated coalition  failed to implement the 1912 Bill.

This is pure speculation , But for  Unionist  in the UK today the events of Easter 1916 should stand as a warning . that they cannot stand in the way pf the aspirations of Wales and Scotland if it is clear that the majority of their people make it clear they wish to control thier own destiny.

Friday 25 March 2016

Ukip in Wales in Turmoil as usual.

US Presidential Candidate Donald Trump recently  boasted  that support for his presidential campaign would not decline even if he shot someone in the middle of a crowded street.
Trump said at a campaign in Iowa
"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters," 

We can only wonder here  how many votes Ukip can lose as its infighting continues
Ukip has suspended one of its highest profile politicians, Suzanne Evans, for six months over suspected disloyalty to the party.
Her suspension by the party’s disciplinary committee, allegedly for a number of specific complaints, comes just weeks after she was sacked as deputy chairwoman and then welfare spokeswoman.
The turmoil within Ukip in Wales  over its regional list candidate selections has reached a new level with controversial South Wales Central lead candidate Gareth Bennett calling for the deselection of his running mate Alex Phillips, the party’s press officer.
Mr Bennett gained UK-wide publicity after criticising Cardiff’s multiracial character in an interview with the WalesOnline .
Now a letter sent by Mr Bennett to Ukip Wales leader Nathan Gill has been leaked to us in which Ms Phillips, currently the party’s number two candidate in South Wales Central, is accused of conspiring to get him deselected by advising him to agree to the interview with WalesOnline.

The letter – headed “solicitor’s letter” but without the name of a solicitor – states: 
“My client now suggests that the following actions be taken.“That my client should deposit the required £15,000 [to cover election expenses] in the Ukip Wales bank account but subject to the confirmation that he is not about to be deselected as a candidate.“That, due to a gross conflict of interests, Alex Phillips should be deselected as a list candidate for South Wales Central.”

The letter also asks that 

my client is relieved of all further media or hustings events during the campaign as he can no longer retain any confidence in the staff of the campaign and media officer to support his candidacy”.
Which Ukip might actually prefer rather than having Mr Bennett  repeat his slurs.

The letter concludes: 
“Please note that, if my client is deselected, the Ukip political party would face a legal action of £300,000 in lost earnings [over a five-year Assembly term] and would also face the prospect of paying my client’s legal costs in the event of losing the case.”
Meanwhile business consultant Llyr Powell, who has been selected to stand for Ukip in Neath and the South Wales West region (though apparently not high on the list)  confirmed he had told the party that if Mr Bennett remains as a candidate he will quit his own candidacies.
He said:
 “I was shocked by Gareth Bennett’s comments, which I consider wholly unacceptable and ludicrous. It is totally wrong to blame problems with rubbish on people of a certain ethnicity.
“I am aware that around 15 Ukip candidates have called on the party’s national executive committee to deselect him.”
With   nominations for the Assembly election close in less than two weeks. one wonders who will be  topping the list in South Wales Central  where they are likely to win at least one seat  Gareth Bennett or  Alex Phillips, (currently number 2).

Former Plaid councilor and parliamentary candidate Mohammed Sarul Islam is currently number 3 on the regions list for Ukip and must be more interested in what is going on than he would be. I wonder how in tune with his new colleagues he is?

Thursday 24 March 2016

Leaked List undermines Corbyn and lets Cameron of the ropes.

We can only wonder  what kind of Allies of Jeremy Corbyn  it was that have allegedly drew  up a list of which Labour MPs are naughty and nice, listing his own Chief Whip as being 'hostile' to his leadership.
Labour saw a chance to score points on David Cameron who was already on the ropes in yesterdays  PMQ's  , But the Prime Minister  won most of the battle by constantly quoting from the list.
The sheet ranking MPs in five categories, from 'Core', through 'Neutral' to 'Hostile' has been handed to the Daily Mirror 
So where do Welsh Labour MPs supposedly stand?

Core group

No Welsh MPs

Core group plus

Albert Owen (Anglesey)
Christina Rees (Neath)
Ian Lucas (Wrexham)
Jo Stevens (Cardiff Central)
Kevin Brennan (Cardiff West)
Nick Symonds Thomas (Torfaen)
Owen Smith (Pontypridd)
Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South)
Wayne David (Caerphilly)
Carolyn Harris (Swansea East)

Neutral but not hostile

Nia Griffith (Llanelli)
Ann Clwyd (Cynon Valley)
Chris Bryant (Rhondda)
David Hanson (Delyn)
Geraint Davies (Swansea West)
Gerald Jones (Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney)
Huw Irranca Davies (Ogmore)
Jessica Morden (Newport East)
Madeleine Moon (Bridgend)
Paul Flynn (Newport West)
Nick Smith (Blaenau Gwent)

Core group hostile

Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South and Penarth)
Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon)

Hostile group

Mark Tami (Alyn and Deeside)
Chris Evans (Islwyn)
I suppose it could be worse.  Only four are deemed hostile and I actually  suspect although Tony Blair for example would have have seen less neutrals  and a number in the Core group there would have been less neutrals and more in the hostile group.
The same could be said of every Party , with possibly ambition  being a bigger factor than disagreements  over policy.
But maybe the real question is  Who drew up the list? and "Who leaked it.
It clearly has damaged Labour, during a period when the Tories were been vulnerable  and some in Labours ranks must be wondering, if there is a deliberate attempt to undermine the Leader from people claiming to be his strongest supporters.
Mind you anyone with a little bit of know how could have drawn up the list and unless the Mirror  discloses the source, we are left to wonder whether its a potential hit list of Labour MPs hostile to Corbyn liable to deselection, a mole in the Corbyn ranks there to undermine him  and his sources or simply (and  I lean to this) a single entity just being a mischief.

Wednesday 23 March 2016

Poll gives Plaid cheer and a fall in Ukip support.

The latest opinion poll has finally brought a little cheer to Plaid Cymru  and a fall in support for Ukip , which seems to be line with the recent falling out in that Party over candidate selection.
Welsh Assembly
Labour: 34% (no change)
Conservatives: 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (+2)
UKIP: 15% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)
Regional Vote
Labour: 31% (no change)
Conservatives: 22% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3)
UKIP: 14% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1)
Greens: 4% (+1)
Others: 3% (no change)

Once again we are indebted to Professor Roger Scully and Elections in Wales for the number crunching.
Combining the two sets of figures therefore produces the following overall projected outcome for the National Assembly:

Labour: 27 seats (25 constituency seats + 2 list seats) -3
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency seats + 7 list seats) +2
Conservatives: 11 seats (7 constituency seats + 4 list seats) -3
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats) +7
Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats -3
So if this was the result on  the day then Labour would find themselves as the easily still the largest Party but well short of an a overall majority  and after Leighton Andrews has  referred to his Plaid previous support  as acheap date’  in the Senedd. they may on fact be hoping he loses the Rhondda to Leanne Wood .

 Plaid would find itself as the main opposition party . A victory of sorts  but the surely would hope for more.
The Tories would claim a poor showing as a result of the recent infighting rather than  their polices 
Ukip would claim any  seat won as a result and 7 as a major victory . It will be interesting  to se how many remain with the party after the Brexit Referendum and maybe the Tories could overtake Plaid via a few defections.
We will likely see a loss of some prominent and able Lib Dems  AM and an even greater loss of influence , even loosing any Kudos they could win in concessions for backing Labour 


The figures for Westminster Elections   are more stable  he numbers from our latest survey are (with changes on the February Welsh Political Barometer poll again indicated in brackets):
Labour: 36% (-1)
Conservatives: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 16% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+2)
Others: 3% (+1)
The Poll also included  figures for the  the EU Referendum  The figures (with changes from February again indicated in brackets) are as follows:
Remain: 41% (+4)
Leave: 36% (-9)
Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 24% (+5)