Saturday, 4 August 2012

End of Lords reform:End of Coalition?

It seem s that David Cameron is about to pull; the Plug on Nick Clegg's Lord's  reform

Earlier this year, the two Coalition Leaders outlined plans to replace appointed peers in the House of Lords with elected senators. The first elections were to be held in 2015 with the elected members of the 

However, dozens of Conservative MPs and peers expressed their strong opposition to the proposal amid fears it would undermine the supremacy of the Commons.

But the Government is now said to be preparing to shelve the plans, which would slash the number of peers and make the chamber 80% elected.
The move will open the door to retaliation by the Lib Dems, who have already warned they could block boundary changes that could hand the Tories an extra 20 seats at the next election.
There has been some speculation if the Lib  Dems  are humiliated with the dropping of Law reform or the allowed to retaliate over boundary changes then Cameron will offer the Lib Dems. A reform of political party funding or more support for green energy.
But surely Clegg' can't be seen clinging to a coalition which has failed to deliver two of his manifesto commitments  Introduction of the Single Transferable Vote and a Fully elected Second chamber.for more money for his party?
What can Clegg do know that he has been humiliated twice over two key reforms  of our political system? Which the Lib Dems entered the coalition in high hopes of achieving

  • Carry on and hope that they can claim to have moderated even more 
  • savage cuts from the Tories
  • Look at a way of introducing Law reform that the Tories would back.
  • Withdraw from the Opposition and allow the Tories to form a minortity government  but stil back them on key issue for some concessions .
  • Withdraw from the coalition and  become a full part of the opposition.
  • Withdraw and force a vote of no confidence and a General election and likely seat losses even 50%.
None of these options are likely to enhance the Lib Dems in the eyes of the electorate and they look like to be in for a torrid time. and can Clegg guarantee he can take all his 57 MPs with him?
Cameron has 305 MPs he needs he beds 325 for a majority (excluding the speaker  there are 649)But with Sinn Fein nor taking their seats he needs 322 in reality
So  if 15 - 20 Lib Dems stay in the coalition then Cameron will have a working Party majority .

One would suspect all those Lib Dems who have experienced the reins of power will be reluctant to give up their post especially if it would lead to a general election and a wipe-out of their party

.It seems that Clegg's only option is to carry on and hope that he  can somehow get some minor concession from Cameron,that he will claim as a major victory in the next 3 years. Unlikely but then what else has he got?

No comments: