Friday, 24 May 2019

Have "Welsh" Labour and Remain voters switched votes ?

I must admit I began to get a bit worried about the #PlaidFirstTime twitter  responses as it all looks to good to be true .

Throughout the day I was inundated with these sought of tweets

For the first time in my life I didn’t vote Labour today. I can’t support a party that refuses to recognise the damage Brexit will cause in Wales and the UK. Plaid’s stance on brexit, the far right and the environment got my vote. #PlaidFirstTime
Being 16 I am not able to vote yet. However I was able to convince my parents to instead of voting Labour to vote for Plaid since they are the only party who care and stand up for Wales against the Brexit Bunch, just like I when I come of age. #VotePlaid #PlaidFirstTime
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If they are genione then Plaid seem to be heading for a very good night on Sunday.

What I do know is that  ex-Welsh Government minister has quit the Labour Party and voted for the Greens, labelling his former party a "pro-Brexit anti-Semitic shambles".
Leighton Andrews was the Labour AM for Rhondda until he lost his seat to then Plaid leader Leanne Wood in 2016 so he may not have been inclined to switch his vote to Plaid , but it could be a pointer to how a number of Labour Remainers might have.
But in the numbers  #PlaidFirstTime  indicate ? It would be a huge change in Welsh Politics
According to the BBC
Mr Andrews  said he had "loaned" his vote to the Green Party in the European elections because of the state Labour was in.
Mr Andrews is a supporter of a further EU referendum who has been critical of UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Mr Andrews served as Wales' education minister and public services minister.
n 2017 I voted Labour, and my vote has been waved around with that of millions of others as an endorsement of the leadership's plans for a better Brexit," Mr Andrews wrote on his blog, explaining why "I've loaned my vote to the Greens".
He added that he would like to rejoin the party, but warned if "Labour enables Brexit, I won't be back".
As well as accusing the Labour leadership of allowing the party to become a "pro-Brexit anti-Semitic shambles", Leighton Andrews said "the far-right is on the march. Labour leadership could have pointed the way to a progressive alternative. Instead, it ducks the key decision of our time."
"When my postal ballot arrived two weeks ago, I returned it immediately with a cross against the Greens," Mr Andrews said, praising the work of Green Party MP Caroline Lucas and the party's MEP Molly Scott Cato.
Blaenau Gwent Labour AM Alun Davies echoed many of Mr Andrews's criticisms of the party leadership.
He told BBC Wales "principled leadership" had been "missing" from the party over the past three years.
"This is a time for principled leadership rooted in our values. That is the minimum our candidates, our members and our supporters deserved.
"And it has been missing in this campaign. We need to look hard at this campaign and think hard about where we've been over the last three years.
"The far right have been on the march and Labour has been a spectator."
Mr Davies added that he thought Leighton Andrews's views "probably reflect the concerns and disappointment of most of our members".

 Political Betting  are claiming that  "Although there has been no exit or other polling there has been a mass of data from the local authority areas that began verifying the ballots overnight"

They say
The big picture so far is in the headline – there’s a correlation between the percentage of those who voted yesterday and what the area did at the referendum. So far it seems that the more for Leave places were the lower turnout levels there were yesterdsy.Now we should be careful rushing to judgment here because all we have is data from a relatively small number of council area and, of course, what happened in the referendum. But if a significantly higher proportion of people voted in Remain area that does suggest that the Greens and LDs might be doing well.There has been no information from London yet – the ballot verifications are taking place in the morning – but I’m increasingly confident that my 7/2 bets on the LDs winning the vote in the capital might be a winner.The Tweet above is from Ashfield – a strong leave area where the turnout was low in comparison to, say, the 47% in the strong remain city of St Albans.
Perhaps  we will be seeing a different headline to  Brexit Party Sweep Wales (and UK) . Here's hoping any cynicism on my part is misplaced.

1 comment:

Leigh Richards said...

The polls have been showing the brexit party - a party which exudes British chauvinism and which is led by a right wing millionaire who wants to privatise the NHS - are set to get more support in Wales than plaid and labour combined. I fervently hope those polls are wrong. Because if they turn out to be correct what on earth does that say about the Welsh electorate? And where does it leave those of us who support Welsh membership of the EU and who want to see a progressive independent wakes?