Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Wales set to vote itself out of existence,

It's not as if if we haven't seen it coming . but the latest Welsh opinion poll still come as a shock, pointing as it does to a Tory landslide

Conservatives: 40% (+12)
Labour: 30% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 13% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-7)
Others: 3% (-1)
As Roger Scully points out 
Following the standard method of projecting poll results into seat outcomes – that is, assuming uniform national swings from the 2015 general election – our latest poll implies the following overall result. (Projected changes from the 2015 result are in brackets):
Conservatives: 21 seats (+10)
Labour: 15 seats (-10)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change
A  full ten seats are projected to be gained by the Conservatives from Labour. The ten seats are: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West, Wrexham, and worryingly for Plaid Ynys Mon,
One of the first things to note that the idea of a Ukip vote was an anti-establishment protest is a myth,
The Ukip vote appears to have collapsed and seemingly transferred en bloc to the Tories.
It also reflects the whole Brexit phenomena where Wales=England and the idea that we were somewhat different  more tolerant , less xenophobic and left wing seems to be untrue.
With 40% of the vote in Wales it is clear that many of those around us , friends ,family and and associates are prepared to vote for a arty intent on privatising the NHS and destroying the Welfare state.
Even in Scotland the Tories riding on a  purely Unionist look to take seats
It seems unlikely now that we can have a progressive alliance . Labour in particular seem intent on suicide rather than surrender its position as the major opposition even with just 176 seats, rather than unite against what will be a viscous right wing goverment  that will keep itself in power  by Gerrymandering seats and making sure there is no alternative media (God help Channel 4 News).
The position in Wales is stalk, Only a vote for Plaid Cymru will preserve not only a Welsh  Political Identity, but (however outnumbered)  some  defence against the Tories.
Unless threre is a sea change the above map will be starring at us, It might despite Tory gains make the cause of Scottish Independence inevitable.
However it may be that on June 8th Wales may have voted to end its existence and become nothing more than  an appendege of England
The one day patriots who support Wales in the six nations  may be content with this but unless we start waking up it will be all we got.

1 comment:

Leigh Richards said...

Yes glyn that infamous encyclopedia britannica entry which read 'for wales see england' may be about to get a 21st century revival by the look of things. The projected tory vote in scotland isnt so much due to a unionist renaissance as due to the fact half the labour vote is switching directly to the tories in an attempt to weaken snp plans to stage a second indie referendum. And while this could give the tories a few seats it will almost certainly herald the death of labour in scotland as a meaningful organisation (which in its way is as extraordinary as the tories winning the most seats in wales).