Friday, 10 July 2020

The only "Lib Dem Two Horse Race " seems to be between Davey and Moran,

Therer s a Huge hill to climb for whoever becomes leader of the Liberal Candidates next month the Liberal Democrats in  August from the dizzily heights when they won 62 seats inthe 2005 General Election , to the   the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%..

But since then it has been downhill, they actually ended up losing 5 seats in 2010 and then leader Nick Clegg  made what proved a disastrous decision to enter into coalition with David Cameron's Consevatives which saw them lose 49 seats leaving them with with just five., recovery has been slow and they faced the humiliation of losing their then leader's seat in the 2019 General Election.leaving them wit just 12 seats.

The Two candidates are Ed Davey  and  Layla Moran  who represents Kingston and Surbiton and respectively

Davey won his seat back in a seat n 2017 though still in a marginal seat.

Elections in the 2010s[edit]

General election 2019: Kingston and Surbiton[10]
Liberal DemocratsEd Davey31,10351.1Increase6.4
ConservativeAphra Brandreth20,61433.9Decrease4.2
LabourLeanne Werner6,52810.7Decrease4.1
GreenSharron Sumner1,0381.7Increase0.8
Brexit PartyScott Holman7881.3N/A
IndependentJames Giles4580.8N/A
Monster Raving LoonyChinners Chinnery1930.3Increase0.0
UKIPRoger Glencross1240.2Decrease0.9
Liberal Democrats holdSwingIncrease5.3

General election 2017: Kingston and Surbiton[11][12]
Liberal DemocratsEd Davey27,81044.7+10.3
ConservativeJames Berry23,68638.1-1.1
LabourLaurie South9,20314.8+0.3
UKIPGraham Matthews6751.1-6.2
GreenChris Walker5360.9-3.0
Monster Raving LoonyChinners1680.3+0.3
IndependentMichael Basman1000.2+0.2
Registered electors81,588
Liberal Democrats gain from ConservativeSwing+5.7

General election 2015: Kingston and Surbiton[13][14]
ConservativeJames Berry23,24939.2+2.7
Liberal DemocratsEd Davey20,41534.5-15.3
LabourLee Godfrey8,57414.5+5.1
UKIPBen Roberts4,3217.3+4.8
GreenClare Keogh2,3223.9+2.9
Christian Peoples AllianceDaniel Gill1980.3-0.1
TUSCLaurel Fogarty1740.3N/A
Registered electors81,238
Conservative gain from Liberal DemocratsSwing+9.0

Davey identifies as a liberal politically, telling magazine Total Politics: “I personally think liberalism is the strongest political philosophy in the modern world. Socialism has failed. I think even social democracy, the watered down version which Labour sort of understand depending on which day of the week it is, is not very convincing, and I don’t really understand where the Conservatives are coming from because they have so many philosophies within one party. There’s no philosophy of the modern Conservative Party.”.[106] He has said that he believes “in the free market and in competition”,[107] and during a parliamentary public bill committee debate in November 2010 argued in defence of privatisationderegulation, and the private sector against Labour MP Gregg McClymont.[108]

Davey also describes himself as a "strong free-trader", rejecting reciprocity in trade tariffs as "the classic protectionist argument". He believes Britain should be open to foreign investment, except for investment tainted by “smells that you have from Putin."[109] He dismisses worries over foreign ownership and investment in the British economy such as that of Chinese and French companies' involvement in the British energy market.[110][109] Davey describes himself as "an economist by trade

Moran contested Oxford West and Abingdon at the 2015 general election, coming second. She was selected for the seat again at the 2017 general election, when she gained the seat from the health minister Nicola Blackwood with 26,256 votes (43.7%) and a majority of 816.[12][15] Moran became the first UK Member of Parliament of Palestinian descent and the first female Liberal Democrat MP from an ethnic minority background.[] In June 2017, Moran was named as the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for education, science and young people in the House of Commons.[17] That month she used her maiden speech to call for fair funding in schools, and in July 2017 she spoke out against the closure of all of the Sure Start children's centres in Oxfordshire, which took place earlier in the year.[18][19][20] Also in July 2017, Moran was jeered at for accusing the Conservatives of underfunding a new scheme to provide 30 hours of free childcare for the children of working parents] Later that year she was appointed a member of the Public Accounts Committee, responsible for overseeing government expenditures]

Her seat is also marginal 

General election 2019: Oxford West and Abingdon[8]
Liberal DemocratsLayla Moran31,34053.3Increase 9.5
ConservativeJames Fredrickson22,39738.1Decrease 4.3
LabourRosie Sourbut4,2587.2Decrease 5.4
Brexit PartyAllison Wild8291.4Steady
Majority8,94315.2Increase 13.8
Turnout58,82476.4Decrease 3.2
Liberal Democrats holdSwingIncrease 6.9
General election 2017: Oxford West and Abingdon[9][10]
Liberal DemocratsLayla Moran26,25643.7Increase 14.8
ConservativeNicola Blackwood25,44042.4Decrease3.3
LabourMarie Tidball7,57312.6Decrease0.1
UKIPAlan Harris7511.3Decrease5.7
Turnout60,02079.6Increase 4.4
Liberal Democrats gain from ConservativeSwingIncrease 9.1
General election 2015: Oxford West and Abingdon[11]
ConservativeNicola Blackwood26,15345.7Increase 3.4
Liberal DemocratsLayla Moran16,57128.9Decrease 13.1
LabourSally Copley7,27412.7Increase 2.1
UKIPAlan Harris3,9636.9Increase 4.2
GreenLarry Sanders2,4974.4Increase 2.3
National Health ActionHelen Salisbury7231.3Steady
Socialist (GB)Mike Foster660.1Steady
Majority9,58216.7Increase 16.4
Turnout57,24775.2Increase 5.0
Conservative holdSwingIncrease 8.2

General election 2010: Oxford West and Abingdon[12]
ConservativeNicola Blackwood23,90642.3Increase 9.6
Liberal DemocratsEvan Harris23,73042.0Decrease 4.1
LabourRichard Stevens5,99910.6Decrease 5.2
UKIPPaul Williams1,5182.7Increase 1.2
GreenChris Goodall1,1842.1Decrease 1.7
Animal ProtectionKeith Mann1430.3Steady
Majority1760.3Increase 14.9
Turnout56,48070.2Increase 3.0
Conservative gain from Liberal DemocratsSwingIncrease 6.9

Elections in the 2000s[edit]

General election 2005: Oxford West and Abingdon[13]
Liberal DemocratsEvan Harris24,33646.3−1.5
ConservativeAmanda McLean16,65331.7+1.7
LabourAntonia Bance8,72516.6−1.1
GreenTom Lines2,0914.0+1.2
UKIPMarcus Watney7951.5+0.6
Liberal Democrats holdSwing−1.6

Ten years ago both would comfortably  entered a General Election enjoying the concentrated efforts of the Parties and the Little Bar Graphs and  "Its a Two Horse race " we so love in thier electoral communications.

On 24 June, the first day of nominations, both Davey and Moran received sufficient nominations to progress to the ballot.
Moran announced that she would stand as a candidate on 8 March, saying that the party needed a "positive vision", with more emphasis on the policy areas of education, the environment and political culture. Her vision also outlines that "A Universal Basic Income is necessary to support those who fall on hard times", as well as investment in education, health, social care and public services.[ She also wants to prioritise wellbeing and mental health alongside economic growth. She had previously criticised the party's approach to the 2019 general election, saying that the party's policy of preventing Brexit meant that voters didn't trust the party.

In June, acting leader Davey launched his bid to become leader saying that his "experience as a carer can help rebuild Britain after coronavirus". He proposed the establishment of a basic income to support carers.[

One thing to remember that in the Blair landslide of 1997 the Liberal Democrats gained 26 seats so where not hampered by the centrists ( Blue-Tory) Tony Blair, but actually rode the same tide of those tired of a Tory Government.

Below are the top target for the Lib Dems for the next General Election.

If they were to repeat their riding on the coattails of  Blair landslide  all (except Cerdigion) would be within their grasp.

However at the moment the only "Lib Dem Two Horse Race "  seems to be between Davey and Moran,

ConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing Needed
1.Dunbartonshire EastScotland1490.14%
3.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber7120.63%
4.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon6290.64%
5.CheltenhamSouth West9810.83%
6.WinchesterSouth East9850.84%
7.CheadleNorth West2,3362.09%
8.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England2,9042.17%
9.Esher and WaltonSouth East2,7432.17%
10.LewesSouth East2,4572.24%
11.GuildfordSouth East3,3372.84%
12.EastbourneSouth East4,3313.93%
13.St IvesSouth West4,2804.16%
14.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon3,9534.63%
15.Hazel GroveNorth West4,4235.00%
16.Hitchin and HarpendenEast of England6,8955.86%
17.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon6,5625.95%
18.WokinghamSouth East7,3835.95%
19.Surrey South WestSouth East8,8177.31%
20.WellsSouth West9,9918.11%
21.Sutton and CheamLondon8,3518.27%
22.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber9,6758.50%
23.Brecon and RadnorshireWales7,1318.63%
24.Cambridgeshire South EastEast of England11,4908.92%
25.CambridgeEast of England9,6398.97%
26.WokingSouth East9,7679.05%
27.Taunton DeaneSouth West11,7009.18%
28.WantageSouth East12,6539.42%
29.ChippenhamSouth West11,2889.88%
31.Mole ValleySouth East12,04110.54


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