Labour: 25 seats (21 constituency, 4 regional)
Conservatives: 19 seats (11 constituency, 8 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 15 seats (7 constituency, 8 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)
So even the present "Not Coalition Government" with the sole Liberal Democrat Kirsty Williams would not have a working majority .
Labour could decide on forming a minority government relying on Plaid not to vote with the Tories so as not to force a vote of confidence and an early election.
Or they could look to a Labour - Plaid coalition which plaid may insist on a deal similar to the recent one in Ireland where the General Election this years saw no one even able to form a two-party coalition
|President: Michael D. Higgins (LAB) · Taoiseach: Micheál Martin (FF) · Governing party: FF, FG, GP|
|Legislative elections: Dáil Éireann, 5-year term, 160 seats (2016: 158 seats), STV:|
|Sinn Féin (SF) |
|Fianna Fáil (FF) |
Soldiers of Destiny
|Fine Gael (FG) |
Family of the Irish
|Green Party (GP) ||Green politics||7,1%||12||2,7%||2|
|Labour Party (LAB) ||Social democracy||4,4%||6||6,6%||7|
|Social Democrats (SD) ||Social democracy||2,9%||6||3,0%||3|
|Solidarity - People Before Profit (S-PBP) |
|Aontú (AON) |
|Independents for Change (I4C)||Socialism||0,4%||1||1,5%||4|
On 14 April, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael reached a coalition agreement, which includes a rotation for taoiseach. However, they lack a majority and need to bring other parties or independents into the coalition in order to form a government.The Greens required an annual 7% cut to carbon emissions, among other demands, to participate as the third part of government formation; these demands did not include Green leader Eamon Ryan participating in the taoiseach rotation scheme, despite rumours to the contrary.]The Social Democrats, Aontú, and technical groups of independents also expressed varying degrees of interest in entering into government formation negotiations with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.]
A draft programme for government was agreed between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party on 15 June 2020. It was determined that the position of Taoiseach would rotate between Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar. The programme needed the approval by each party's membership. Fianna Fáil and the Green Party require a simple majority and a 67% majority, respectively, in a postal ballot of all members, while Fine Gael uses an electoral college system, with its parliamentary party making up 50% of the electorate, constituency delegates 25%, councillors 15% and the party’s executive council filling the final 10%.
On 26 June, Fine Gael voted 80%, Fianna Fáil voted 74% and the Green Party voted 76% in favour of the programme. This allowed for a government to be formed on 27 June, with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin serving as Taoiseach until December 2022.[ Subsequently, the Dáil voted on 27 June to nominate Micheál Martin as Taoiseach. He was appointed afterward by President Michael D. Higgins and announced his cabinet later that day
So we could see the next Senedd elect Mark Drakeford as First Minister , on the understanding he stands down in favour of Plaid's Adam Price mid-term.
However I think that the new Labour leader may then take charge of his or her party on a platform of reneging on any agreement and forcing a General Election rather than see a Plaid First Minister.
Whether the Welsh electorate would support such a move would be vertyinteresting.