Wednesday, 16 October 2019

Vote Unionist ("Welsh" Labour, Liberal Democrat) and get decades of Tory government.

Since Nation Cymru has done the work in presenting  the latest  new edition of the quarterly Welsh barometer poll , I have nicked some of it here.

Though of course all the real credit goes to  Professor Roger Scully’s full psephological analysis here.

 So Nation Cymru presents it as 

October 2019’s Welsh Barometer Poll
They say

At Westminster, the Conservatives capture Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, and Wrexham from Labour. Plaid Cymru are projected to win Ynys Môn but lose Ceredigion.At the Senedd, the Conservatives are projected to gain Cardiff North, Gower, the Vale of Clwyd, the Vale of Glamorgan, and Wrexham; Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West and Llanelli; while the Liberal Democrats are projected to gain Cardiff Central.However, Professor Scully does warn that “in these unprecedented political times […]all attempts to use opinion poll numbers to project outcome in term of parliamentary seats should be viewed with very considerable caution.”One of the paradoxes in Wales is that a few of the areas where the Remain parties are expected to taste success, such as the valleys, tend towards being pro-Brexit, and the pro-Brexit Conservatives are expected to do well in quite pro-Remain areas such as Cardiff North!It would be rather difficult therefore to tell how these projections would actually play out in individual seats across Wales.
Perhaps the interesting aftermath is the response of some Labour AMs

Plenty of bad news for Labour in this poll but interesting that despite the chest-beating Plaid are going backwards - down 3% in GE (losing Ceredigion), down 2% in Assembly voting intentions

While the left peck at each other the right are consolidating

Replying to
Maybe the Indy marches weren’t such a good idea?
8:45 AM · Oct 15, 2019Twitter for iPhone
It seems that some Labour members are more interested in   Plaid's performance than their own.

Mind you Lee waters has a point and  Plaid and Labour could cancel each other out and as in England give the Tories the lion's share of the seats .

But it is important to note Not In Scotland , where the SNP are set to dominate.

Maybe only when the Labour Branch Office  here is almost closed down as it has  in Scotland , then Wales can deliver similar blow to the Tories.

We are likely to see much of Vote Plaid get Tories in the next months as we approach an expected from 2Welsh" Labour but the answer to that is vote against a Independence and no matter how Wales voted we will see a Tory government in Westminster lording over us for decades to come.

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