Sunday, 13 October 2019

Scottish Independence support rises to 50%

The Sunday Times claim that. "The Union is on a knife edge, with support for an independent Scotland rising to 50% and a clear majority preferring Scottish independence in the EU to remaining in the UK after Brexit, according to a poll."

The finding, as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to rally the SNP at its autumn conference in Aberdeen today, represents the highest level of support for independence ever recorded in a Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times.

It represents a five-point rise on the 45% support the company registered on average in its polls last year and in the independence referendum in 2014, up from 49% in our last poll in June.

Its on a Paywall and I'm not giving any money to Rupert Murdoch, so i've turned to Political Betting for the rest of this Blog.

New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%October 13th, 2019

Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB

New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 …

Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in ScotlandSNP 39% +2.1CON 21% -7.6LAB 20% -7.1LD 13% +6.2GRN 2% +1.8BREX 5%Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo
At the past two general elections the part of the UK where there has seen the most seat churn has been in Scotland with its 59 seats and the signs are that this will continue next time. The country has its own electoral ecosystem and applying GB projections can be distorting. Just a few shifts in Scotland can see many gains and losses.
This is why Scotland-only polls which are relatively rare are such a big political event.
The projected seat changes are in the Sunday Times panel featured in the Tweet above and as can be seen LAB nearly gets wiped out north of the border. To put this in context Gordon Brown’s LAB at GE2010 won 41 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats. This poll would have it down to just one.
The Scottish Tories under Ruth Davidson came out of GE2017 with 12 gains making 13 Scottish seats overall at the last general election thus helping ameliorate the disastrous performance of TMay’s party in England and Wales. This latest poll sees the SNP taking eight of those seats back.
The Lib Dems, who now have a Scottish leader, hold up well in the poll and SNP hopes of taking Swinson’s Dunbartonshire East seat are not supported by these latest numbers which show an SNP to LD swing of 2%.
The other key findings today are support for Scottish independence reaching 50% when don’t knows are taken out and the preference for an independent Scotland to stay in the EU.Mike Smithson

It is indicative of our voting system thaat the Lib Dems on 13% could end up with more seats than the Labour Party on 20%  and yes the SNP could win the lions share of the  seats with 39%, indeed they could win every seat in Scotland  with less than 50% of the vote and whilst I would like to see every seat in Scotland, I can't really advocate this  under First Past the Post.

But given that we could see Boris Johnson staying in number ten with a similar percentage of the vote  and if that is a mandate then the SNP certainly have a mandate for a second independence referendum.

As for the Liberal Democrat revival I wonder if it would continue in a situation where we leave the European Union where Jo Swinson's Remain Policy would however be put aside as she denies Scotland the right to seek a second  Independence  Referendum and rejoin the European Union in their own right.

It is a hypoctitical stance but what do you expect from a Liberal Democrat leader.

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