Friday, 18 October 2019

Heads Waleles loses, Taila Wales losses and we don't ever toss the coin.

I imagine many people have trouble understanding what the supposed "New Deal " entails and even those who have been closely following the events over the years what difference  in whatever the Prime Minister has secured to whatever his predecessor brought back and he voted against.

Nation Cymru tells us that..
...The new protocol replaces the controversial Irish backstop plan in Theresa May's deal. Much of the rest of that deal will remain.
Here are some of the key new parts:
The whole of the UK will leave the EU customs union. This means the UK will be able to strike trade deals with other countries in the future.
There will be a legal customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (which stays in the EU). But in practice the customs border will be between Great Britain and the island of Ireland, with goods being checked at "points of entry" in Northern Ireland.
Duty (tax) won't automatically have to be paid on goods coming into Northern Ireland from Great Britain.
But where something is "at risk" of then being transported into the Republic of Ireland (which is part of the EU customs union), duty will be paid.
A joint committee made up of UK and EU representatives will decide at a later date what goods are considered "at risk".
It looks like a Smugglers Charter and surley MPs cant vote on this without aclear and precise information on just how it would be implemented.
Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru have warned that a new border could have a deeply damaging effect on the economy of Wales, with trade facing delays, tariffs or bypassing the UK altogether.
“This deal does nothing to protect Welsh interests; let alone safeguard our economy and jobs,” Wales’ First Minister Mark Drakeford said.
“It would wrench us out of the single market and customs union and create new barriers to trade which would make Wales poorer.”
Economists’ early analysis based on the mooted Johnson deal would reduce per capita GDP by 6.4%. They also concluded that Theresa May’s Deal would reduced GDP by 4.9%.
Plaid Cymru’s Westminster Leader, Liz Saville Roberts MP has demanded that official impact assessments must be released alongside the legal text of Boris Johnson’s deal with the European Union.
Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “The Westminster Government must now release the impact assessments of their so-called deal. It is only reasonable for us to see the effects of what we will be voting on.
“This deal will define our economy, society and children’s future for generations – to vote on it blindfold without any idea of its impact would be deeply irresponsible.
“If, as has been rumoured, a border down the Irish Sea will be created the Welsh economy will take a significant hit – especially in places like Holyhead.
“Fundamentally, what the last three years has shown is that the latest manifestation of Brexit is nothing like that which was promised in the 2016 referendum. For the sake of our democracy, economy and constituents, it is only right that this deal is put back to the people, alongside the option to remain.”
Yet Mps are expected to vote on the deal on Saturday and are probably in the dark as much as we are in its implications.
Prime Minister Johnson believes that he is in a Win Win solution and if it is rejected then its a No Deal and we leave on the end of the month , alowing him to call a General Election in which he offers Non Tory Brexiters the choice between his No Deal and a Jeremy Corbyn Government.

Of course there are other options calling for a referendum under the Alternative vote system  with 
  1. No Deal 
  2. The Government Deal
  3. Remain

On the ballot paper
The voter puts a number by each option, with a one for their favourite, two for their second favourite and so on. They can put numbers on as many or as few as they wish.
If more than half the voters have the same favourite option, that then it wins If none gets half, the numbers provide instructions for what happens next.
The counters remove  whatever came last and look at the ballot papers with that candidate as their favourite. Rather than throwing away these votes, they move each vote to the voter’s second favourite  option .
So unless there is a fourth option it would take two counts.
A three month campaign ending in January should be  enough for arguments for any option to be made.
For me Remain is the only option in which Wales does not suffer an economic disaster.
But of course it would probably leave the Shadow of Brexit with us for years , and those who supported it in the first place would not accept it , just as they wouldn't have if in the first referendum had resulted in a Remain vote.The only viable option for Wales is Independence ad yes I know voters here voted leave, but this will be a different story and especially a different future.

No comments: