We must be wary of the feeling of a Sea Change in the views of the People of Wales towards Independence in the last year seems to have confirmed by a new poll by YouGov.
Wales Online reports that
"The survey of 1,039 voters found that nearly a quarter - 24% - would vote for an independent Wales if there was a referendum tomorrow.
In a scenario in which the UK has left the EU but Wales has the option to become an independent state within the EU, support for Welsh independence grew to 33%.
When people who said they didn't know how they would vote were excluded, the YouGov poll conducted between September 6 and 10 suggests that 31% of people would be certain to vote for independence in a referendum with 41% backing an independent Wales in the European Union if the rest of the UK leaves.
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price said the “sensational” figures put support for his party’s key aim of independence at an all-time high.
The poll follows a series of rallies by the independence movement All Under One Banner Cymru (AUOBCymru) in Cardiff, Caernarfon and Merthyr Tydfil where thousands marched in support of independence.
The figure is a significant rise from previous polls. In an ICM poll conducted for BBC Wales in February, only 7% said they back the idea of Welsh independence. In December last year, a poll for Sky found that only 8% wanted Wales to be an independent state separate from the UK.
Polls in which people are asked to rate their view of independence on a sliding scale have previously indicated that more than 20% are supportive of the independence to some degree yet this poll indicates that is now translating into a significant percentage of people backing independence in a putative yes or no referendum.
Mr Price said: “These are sensational figures which put support for Plaid Cymru’s ambition of securing Welsh independence at a historic high.“Westminster is in turmoil. Boris Johnson’s reckless Tory government and Jeremy Corbyn’s chaotic so-called opposition are wrecking Wales’ future.
“It is no wonder that we are witnessing a surge in support for a New Wales – a nation proudly taking its place as an equal partner on the international stage.
“Having overtaken Labour at the European Parliament election in May, Plaid Cymru has secured its place as Wales’ true Remain party, fighting against a crash-out Brexit and for future prosperity.
“Independence is moving from the margins to the mainstream. Our nation is on the march.
“As Boris Johnson takes us closer to the cliff edge, more and more people will demand an outward-looking Wales free from Westminster’s contempt.”
Detailed results show that more voters who backed Labour and the Liberal Democrats at the 2017 General Election, as well as those who voted for Plaid Cymru, would back independence than oppose it if it means Wales could stay in the EU while the rest of the UK left2.
24% is still not high enough of course , but consider the Scottish Polls just three years before the Independence Referendum.
2011[edit]
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26–27 Oct | YouGov/Scotsman | 1,075 | 34% | 52% | 12% | 18% | ||
| 24–31 Aug | TNS BMRB/The Herald | 1,007 | 39% | 38% | 23% | 1% | ||
| 25–29 Aug | Ipsos MORI | 703 | 35% | 60% | 5% | 25% | ||
| 25–31 May | TNS BMRB/The Herald | 1,022 | 37% | 45% | 18% | 8% | ||
| 5 May | 2011 Scottish Parliament election | |||||||
| 26–29 Apr | YouGov/Scotsman | 28% | 57% | 12% | 29% | |||
It of course rose to 45% Yes and to 55% in the actual referendum to be honest there has not been a major increase though recent pols put YES slightly ahead in Scotland.
Frankly i would hope that a Yes vote would reach 60% or higher in a second Scottish referendum , but that should not be the starting point of the referendum itself.
The 2014 referendum saw many who were not reen SNP supporters campaigning under various banners to rise the vote for Independence by a large margin.
To paraphrase a french marxist
The conditions need not be necessary to call a Second Referendum , the Referendum will create the condition.
When Indyref2 comes (and succeeds) , we in Wales should be planning for our own referendum and hopefully win it on the first go.
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