Wednesday, 4 September 2019

A General Election is a Tory Trap

The latest bid to stop a no-deal Brexit has taken a step further forward lays night 
The BBC reports that 
MPs voted 328 to 301 in support of a motion that would allow them to block a no-deal Brexit with 21 Conservative MPs voting against the government.
The motion states that "the House has considered the matter of the need to take all necessary steps to ensure that the United Kingdom does not leave the European Union on 31 October 2019 without a withdrawal agreement".
Boris Johnson has previously said he would seek a general election if he lost the vote. Following the vote he said Parliament was "on the brink of wrecking any deal" with Brussels after voting to give a cross-party alliance control of the Commons agenda on Wednesday.
The Prime Minister then confirmed he was tabling a motion to call for an early general election.
The European Union (Withdrawal) (no 6) Bill requires the Government to either reach a deal with the EU by October 19 or gain Parliament’s approval for a no-deal Brexit by that date.
If the Government does not do either of these the legislation would then require the Prime Minister to write to the EU to request another extension to the so-called divorce date.
The legislation proposes an extension until January 31, 2020.
The Conservative MPs who voted against the Government are:
  • Guto Bebb
  • RIchard Benyon
  • Steve Brine
  • Alistair Burt
  • Greg Clark
  • Kenneth Clarke
  • David Gauke
  • Justine Greening
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Sam Gyimah
  • Philip Hammond
  • Stephen Hammond
  • Richard Harrington
  • Margot James
  • Phillip Lee
  • Oliver Letwin
  • Anne Milton
  • Caroline Nokes
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Nicholas Soames
  • Rory Stewartit
  • Edward Vaizey
That have now had the whip withdraw and presumably those who dod rebel will not be able to stand in any Election.

The Tories are a head in the polls at the moment butas 

As the Guardain reports that

1. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives would start any election campaign with an advantage.
Johnson’s strategy since entering Downing Street has been to try to unify the leave vote by taking a hard Brexit approach, while hoping that Jeremy Corbyn cannot unite remain voters to the same degree.
That appears to have been effective: polling averages show the Conservatives up at around 33%, having taken share from the Brexit party, while Labour is stalled at 25% and the Lib Dems are holding up at about 18%.
2. This could translate into a Conservative majority – although not all pollsters agree.
Electoral Calculus estimates, based on an analysis of polling from 26 July, when Johnson became prime minister, to 31 August, that the Conservatives would win an overall majority of 62.
The prime minister’s party, with 33.3% of the vote, would win 356 seats, while Labour, at 25%, would take 188. That comes despite the SNP reasserting its dominance of Scotland taking 50 out of 59 seats. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, would win 34 seats.
But this forecast rests on the assumption that Johnson can make real inroads into traditional Labour seats in the Midlands and north with his Brexit “do or die” strategy. Other pollsters are more sceptical.
Polling conducted by Focus Data, on behalf of pro-EU Conservatives and released overnight, concludes that the Conservatives would only end up with 311 seats, well short of the 326 needed for an overall majority in the Commons, although Labour would also lose ground with 242.TimelineCountdown to an election?Show

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More interestingly still, if the pro Brexit DUP retained its 10 seats that would leave pro-Brexit parties on 321. The combined opposition, meanwhile, could reach the same figure: taking Labour’s 242 plus 52 for the SNP, 21 Lib Dems, four Plaid, one Green and Lady Sylvia Hermon, the independent MP for North Down, who has said she is against no deal. A parliament as divided as the current one.

So an election would possibly solve nothing, but reinforce the status quo and see us ending up with a No-Deal because time as run out.

Even if Johnson wins then a 33.3% vote giving you "a majority of 62" then its a hardly a democratic mandate.

But it also means the kie of a No-Dela  will continue.

The reality is that the day after we  leave with aMo-Deal government minsters will be dispatched to Brussels  to seek some kind of Trade Agreement  with the RU who will have a united front.

Indeed with absolutely no cards left to play then if we want to trade with Europe then we could end up agreeing to conditions, that in the view of Brexiteers would be worse than any of the multiple "deals" Mrs May attempted to negotiate.

It is also a lie that it Remainers who have prevented Brexit.

There were until May's "Brexit means Brexit" many who accepted the referendum  it was the likes of Rees-Mogg and Johnson  (a minority but influential one of Tory MPs) himself who insisted  on a Hard Btexit and to ignore that effect on Northern Ireland that has prevented us leaving the EU three years after referendum.

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