Tuesday, 17 September 2019

Should a Plaid/LibDem pact be based on results nearly 10 years ago?

Former Labour MP for Carmarthen Gwynoro Jones  has been trying to establish himself as a elder Welsh Statesman without much success .

However it is interesting to note is take on the allocation of seats in any Plaid/LibDem pact for the Election which is expected before the end of November.

He writes 

My parameters were the constituency results  for the General Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General Election was heavily influenced by  Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd Election results of 2016 and the recent  Euro elections.
There are a few seats in the tables below that could have been allocated differently. Of course   Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to stand down.

So Gwynoro  seems to be basing his tables on a Best LibDem result scenario in a election that was nearly ten years ago.

Take the situation of Merthyr and Rhymney  which he allocates to the LibDems and we see what nonsense this is

The LibDems did obtain a big swing  in 2010 with a candidate who seemed to have joined Plaid 

General election 2010: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[14][15]
LabourDai Havard14,00743.7-16.8
Liberal DemocratAmy Kitcher9,95131.0+17.0
ConservativeMaria Hill2,4127.5-1.4
IndependentClive Tovey1,8455.8N/A
Plaid CymruGlyndwr Jones1,6215.1-4.9
BNPRichard Barnes1,1733.7N/A
UKIPAdam Brown8722.7+0.4
Socialist LabourAlan Cowdell1950.6-0.3
Registered electors54,715
Labour holdSwing-16.9
However the following elections  saw the LibDem vote almost disappear  

General election 2017: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
LabourGerald Jones[4]22,40766.8+12.9
ConservativePauline Jorgensen[5]6,07318.1+8.0
Plaid CymruAmy Kitcher [6]2,7408.2-1.3
UKIPDavid Rowlands[7]1,4844.4-14.2
Liberal DemocratBob Griffin [8]8412.5-1.6
Registered electors55,463
Labour holdSwing+2.4

General election 2015: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[9][10]
LabourGerald Jones[11]17,61953.9+10.2
UKIPDavid Rowlands[7]6,10618.7+15.9
ConservativeBill Rees3,29210.1+2.5
Plaid CymruRhayna Mann3,0999.5+4.4
Liberal DemocratBob Griffin[12]1,3514.1-26.9
GreenElspeth Parris[13]6031.8N/A
IndependentEddy Blanche4591.4N/A
CommunistRobert Griffiths1860.6N/A
Registered electors61,716
Labour holdSwing-2.8

 The  2010 vote  seems to be  a protest some of it  seemingly  transferring to ProBrexit parties in the following election.

Indeed it many of the seats where the LibDems achieved  big  swings i or came close   2010 Swansea West, Newport East  ,Wrexham Pontypridd, their vote has collapses

So if Plaid agree to a 50/50 seat  allocation based on anything like Gwynoro list then it will be a big mistake

I also had a difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below. 
They are

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLDSwansea East
Vale of Clwyd
Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens could stand.
 Group 1

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8
       Plaid Cymru - 10
Brecon and Radnor
Cardiff Central
Cardiff North
Cardiff West
Cardiff S E and Penarth
Carms East and Dinefwr
Clwyd South
Clwyd West
Merthyr and Rhymney 
Ynys Mon

Dwyfor Meirionydd


Group 2

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11
       Plaid Cymru - 6
Blaenau Gwent
Alun and Deeside
Cynon Valley
Newport East
Swansea West
Vale of Glamorgan





Anyway that’s my shot at it. Lets see what transpires.

Frankly I would not allocate the LibDems anything more than 7 or  8 seats and especially be careful  (if I was Plaid's negotiator) of not standing in like monmouth if they are to be seen as the Party of Wales.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

20 years ?