Should a Plaid/LibDem pact be based on results nearly 10 years ago?

Former Labour MP for Carmarthen Gwynoro Jones  has been trying to establish himself as a elder Welsh Statesman without much success .

However it is interesting to note is take on the allocation of seats in any Plaid/LibDem pact for the Election which is expected before the end of November.

He writes 

My parameters were the constituency results  for the General Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General Election was heavily influenced by  Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd Election results of 2016 and the recent  Euro elections.
There are a few seats in the tables below that could have been allocated differently. Of course   Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to stand down.

So Gwynoro  seems to be basing his tables on a Best LibDem result scenario in a election that was nearly ten years ago.



Take the situation of Merthyr and Rhymney  which he allocates to the LibDems and we see what nonsense this is

The LibDems did obtain a big swing  in 2010 with a candidate who seemed to have joined Plaid 

General election 2010: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney^[14][15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Dai Havard	14,007	43.7	-16.8
	Liberal Democrat	Amy Kitcher	9,951	31.0	+17.0
	Conservative	Maria Hill	2,412	7.5	-1.4
	Independent	Clive Tovey	1,845	5.8	N/A
	Plaid Cymru	Glyndwr Jones	1,621	5.1	-4.9
	BNP	Richard Barnes	1,173	3.7	N/A
	UKIP	Adam Brown	872	2.7	+0.4
	Socialist Labour	Alan Cowdell	195	0.6	-0.3
Majority			4,056	12.6	-33.9
Turnout			32,076	58.6	+3.2
Registered electors			54,715
	Labour hold		Swing	-16.9

However the following elections  saw the LibDem vote almost disappear  

General election 2017: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Gerald Jones[4]	22,407	66.8	+12.9
	Conservative	Pauline Jorgensen[5]	6,073	18.1	+8.0
	Plaid Cymru	Amy Kitcher [6]	2,740	8.2	-1.3
	UKIP	David Rowlands[7]	1,484	4.4	-14.2
	Liberal Democrat	Bob Griffin [8]	841	2.5	-1.6
Majority			16,334	48.7	+13.5
Turnout			33,545	60.5	+7.5
Registered electors			55,463
	Labour hold		Swing	+2.4

General election 2015: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney^[9][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Gerald Jones[11]	17,619	53.9	+10.2
	UKIP	David Rowlands[7]	6,106	18.7	+15.9
	Conservative	Bill Rees	3,292	10.1	+2.5
	Plaid Cymru	Rhayna Mann	3,099	9.5	+4.4
	Liberal Democrat	Bob Griffin[12]	1,351	4.1	-26.9
	Green	Elspeth Parris[13]	603	1.8	N/A
	Independent	Eddy Blanche	459	1.4	N/A
	Communist	Robert Griffiths	186	0.6	N/A
Majority			11,513	35.2	+22.6
Turnout			32,715	53.0	-5.6
Registered electors			61,716
	Labour hold		Swing	-2.8

 The  2010 vote  seems to be  a protest some of it  seemingly  transferring to ProBrexit parties in the following election.

Indeed it many of the seats where the LibDems achieved  big  swings i or came close   2010 Swansea West, Newport East  ,Wrexham , Pontypridd, their vote has collapses

So if Plaid agree to a 50/50 seat  allocation based on anything like Gwynoro list then it will be a big mistake

I also had a difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below. 
They are
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLDSwansea East
Vale of Clwyd
Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens could stand.
 Group 1

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8	Plaid Cymru - 10
Brecon and Radnor	Aberconwy
Cardiff Central	Caerphilly
Cardiff North	Cardiff West
Cardiff S E and Penarth	Carms East and Dinefwr
Clwyd South	Clwyd West
Merthyr and Rhymney	Llanelli
Monmouth	Neath
Montgomery	Ynys Mon
	Dwyfor Meirionydd
	Arfon

Group 2

Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11	Plaid Cymru - 6
Aberavon	Blaenau Gwent
Alun and Deeside	Cynon Valley
Bridgend	Islwyn
Newport East	Preseli
Swansea West	Rhondda
Torfaen	Ogmore
Vale of Glamorgan
Gower
Pontypridd
Wrexham
Delyn

Anyway that’s my shot at it. Lets see what transpires.

Frankly I would not allocate the LibDems anything more than 7 or  8 seats and especially be careful  (if I was Plaid's negotiator) of not standing in like monmouth if they are to be seen as the Party of Wales.

r.