Former Labour MP for Carmarthen Gwynoro Jones has been trying to establish himself as a elder Welsh Statesman without much success .
However it is interesting to note is take on the allocation of seats in any Plaid/LibDem pact for the Election which is expected before the end of November.
My parameters were the constituency results for the General Election 2010, which was probably the last general election held in ‘ normal circumstances’. By that I mean the General Election 2015 was one where the Lib Dems were severely punished because of the coalition years. The 2017 General Election was heavily influenced by Brexit and tactical voting hence it became a two horse race between the Tories and Labour. Then I looked at the Senedd Election results of 2016 and the recent Euro elections.
There are a few seats in the tables below that could have been allocated differently. Of course Ceredigion is taken out of the equation because, let’s face it hell would freeze over before either Welsh Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru would agree to stand down.
So Gwynoro seems to be basing his tables on a Best LibDem result scenario in a election that was nearly ten years ago.
Take the situation of Merthyr and Rhymney which he allocates to the LibDems and we see what nonsense this is
The LibDems did obtain a big swing in 2010 with a candidate who seemed to have joined Plaid
|Liberal Democrat||Amy Kitcher||9,951||31.0||+17.0|
|Plaid Cymru||Glyndwr Jones||1,621||5.1||-4.9|
|Socialist Labour||Alan Cowdell||195||0.6||-0.3|
|Plaid Cymru||Amy Kitcher ||2,740||8.2||-1.3|
|Liberal Democrat||Bob Griffin ||841||2.5||-1.6|
|Plaid Cymru||Rhayna Mann||3,099||9.5||+4.4|
|Liberal Democrat||Bob Griffin||1,351||4.1||-26.9|
The 2010 vote seems to be a protest some of it seemingly transferring to ProBrexit parties in the following election.
Indeed it many of the seats where the LibDems achieved big swings i or came close 2010 Swansea West, Newport East ,Wrexham , Pontypridd, their vote has collapses
So if Plaid agree to a 50/50 seat allocation based on anything like Gwynoro list then it will be a big mistake
I also had a difficulty in allocating seats to the Welsh Greens, as much as I agree with a great deal of what they stand for. Nevertheless, since there are seats that can be allocated either way – I have not included them in the tables below.
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
Newport West - altho' was tempted to make WLDSwansea East
Vale of Clwyd
Possibly they could be four constituencies where the Greens could stand.
Welsh Liberal Democrats - 8 Plaid Cymru - 10 Brecon and Radnor Aberconwy Cardiff Central Caerphilly Cardiff North Cardiff West Cardiff S E and Penarth Carms East and Dinefwr Clwyd South Clwyd West Merthyr and Rhymney Llanelli Monmouth Neath Montgomery Ynys Mon Dwyfor Meirionydd Arfon
Welsh Liberal Democrats - 11 Plaid Cymru - 6 Aberavon Blaenau Gwent Alun and Deeside Cynon Valley Bridgend Islwyn Newport East Preseli Swansea West Rhondda Torfaen Ogmore Vale of Glamorgan Gower Pontypridd Wrexham Delyn
Anyway that’s my shot at it. Lets see what transpires.
Frankly I would not allocate the LibDems anything more than 7 or 8 seats and especially be careful (if I was Plaid's negotiator) of not standing in like monmouth if they are to be seen as the Party of Wales.