Tuesday, 30 July 2019

Plaid lead for first time in Assembly polls but not enough.

The latest Welsh Polls have thrown up a possibly interesting (to say the least)  result.

The poll shows Plaid Cymru on 24%, while Labour falls to 21% and the Conservatives are on 19%.  given Plaid the The poll was carried out by ITV and YouGov.
Fir the the constituency vote 
  • Plaid Cymru 24% (no change)
  • Labour 21% (-4)
  • Conservatives 19% (+2)
  • Brexit Party 19% (+2)
  • Liberal Democrats 12% (+3)
  • Greens 4% (-1)
  • Others 2% (-1)
The regional vote is given as
  • Plaid Cymru 23% (+1)
  • Labour 19% (-2)
  • Conservatives 18% (+6)
  • Brexit Party 17% (-6)
  • Liberal Democrats 12% (+5)
  • Greens 4% (-4)
  • Others 7% (no change)
Professor Roger Awan-Scully writes 

"Once again, the voting intention figures break all previous records. Plaid Cymru have never previously been in first place in a National Assembly poll on the regional list vote. Nor has any Welsh poll ever previously shown Labour support below twenty percent. The figures for this vote also show a significant rise in Conservative support which exactly matches a fall since our last poll for the Brexit party. And, as with the other voting intention results, there is a notable increase in support for the Liberal Democrats.
Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:
North Wales: 2 Brexit, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Plaid
Mid & West Wales: 2 Brexit, 1 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat
South Wales West: 2 Brexit, 1 Plaid, 1 Liberal Democrat
South Wales Central: 2 Brexit, 1 Plaid, 1 Liberal Democrat
South Wales East: 2 Brexit, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat
These figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour: 17 seats (16 constituency, 1 regional)
Plaid Cymru: 15 seats (12 constituency, 3 regional)
Conservatives: 11 seats (10 constituency, 1 regional)
Brexit Party: 10 seats (10 regional)
Liberal Democrats: 7 seats (2 constituency, 5 regional)

Plaid Cymru are projected to gain Aberconwy, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff West, Llanelli and Neath, with Labour losing 11 seats.
The Conservatives are projected to gain Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham. The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain Cardiff Central"..

So in a supposed proportional electoral system    Plaid  are set to have fewer seats than Labour even though they would have had a 3/4% lead over Labour.

It is important to note that Plaid's lead is however due to the fal in votes of Labour and Tories and really need to start taking more votes from other parties.

What this means for ta future Welsh Government which need 30 seats for a working majority is anyone's guess.

  • The surest outcome would be a Labour/Plaid, Plaid/Labour coalition  32 seats but it could well mean that the post of First Minister would swap halfway through the assembly. Whilst Plaid may be happy with this , Labour may well feel that a period of being  the main opposition party would give them a chance to recharge their batteries.
  • There could be a Plaid/ Lib Dem 22 seats or Labour/Lib Dem 24 minority government.
  • A Plaid/Con 26 seats  or a Lab/Con 28 seats minority government the former seems to be Improbable  and the latter impossible 
  • A Plaid /Lib/Dem /Con  36 seats a scenario that has been suggested before , but it would have to have a fundamentally radical agenda for change and both Plaid and Lib/Dems would be wary of a toxic relationship with the Tories.
  • A Con /Brexit Party 21 seats,  minority government 
  • At no point canIsse any other Party working with the Brexit Party in a government.
The role of the Presiding Officer will be vital and Neither Plaid or Labour would sem likely to seek it for one of their number.

A future Welsh Assembly apart from a Plaid/Labour Labour/Plaid coalition would seem unworkable, but bloody interesting.

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