Tuesday, 23 July 2019

Don't think Johnson's Premiership will make Independence inevitable.

Unless there is an almighty shock, there 's a good chance that by the time you read this Boris Johnson will be the new  Conservative Prime Minister and by tomorrow he will be UK Prime Minister.

There wil be those in Wales and Scotland who believe that this will inevitably lead to both countries leaving the Union and  becoming Independent Nations.

Both Plaid's Adam Price  and Right winger  Jac O' the North  seem to fall into this oh to easy assumption

Adam Price  claims that a Johnson premiership would “wreak unimaginable damage on Wales and Scotland, risking thousands of jobs and crucial investment in our communities.” He argued that people will only tolerate so much before choosing a different path: independence.
“What the past three years have shown is that the land of milk and honey promised by the leaders of the Leave campaign was never possible,” he said, writing in the Scotsman newspaper.
“Indeed, any version of Brexit would wreak unimaginable damage on Wales and Scotland, risking thousands of jobs and crucial investment in our communities.
“That risk increases exponentially when the next British prime minister takes office next week. If, as expected, Boris Johnson does indeed become prime minister, the occupant of 10 Downing Street will be a man who relishes the prospect of a no deal Brexit.
“Let us be in no doubt that these are very serious times which require all of us to think very seriously and soberly about the kind of future we want for our nations.
“When Wales and Scotland do choose an independent future – and it is only a matter of when – I also happen to believe England would benefit from an equal partnership as much as our two countries.”
Whilst Jac, Bless him  tells us

 Regular readers will know that I voted for Brexit back in June 2016. I did so for the reasons I set out in EU Referendum: Why I Want OUT! which was followed in celebratory mood with Brexit, Wexit: Things Can Only Get Better!The clue to my motivation lies in my use of the word ‘Wexit’, for I believed then, and I believe even more strongly today, that Brexit, especially a disastrous and damaging Brexit, can lead to Welsh independence. And Welsh independence is my priority; more important by far than membership of the EU.

And its mot only Lexiters like Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour Party who believe that a Johnson Premiership , will lead  a early election and a Labour victory and new Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson is probably anticipating being the power broker in a a Hung Parliment

But this is going to haunt


But before we start to write Johnson political obituary we should remember that in 1979 a right wing seemingly adrift Conservative leader won a General Election and held power for over a decade .

Even In Wales rghe Tories received a rise in their votes .

UK General Elections[edit]

YearShare of votesSeats
6 / 36
4 / 36
9 / 36
1 / 36
6 / 36
6 / 36
3 / 36
3 / 36
5 / 36
5 / 36
6 / 36
6 / 36
3 / 36
7 / 36
1974 (Feb)25.9%
8 / 36
1974 (Oct)23.9%
8 / 36
11 / 36
14 / 38
8 / 38
6 / 38
0 / 40
0 / 40
3 / 40
8 / 40
11 / 40
8 / 40

Just as many of us in that period hardly met anybody who admitted to voting for the Tories under Thatcher in parts of Wales 

But even in the aftermath of the Miners Strike, part of the Labour Strongholds in the Welsh Valleys saw the Tories get respectable votes .

General election 1987: Caerphilly[18]
LabourRon Davies28,69858.44+12.8
ConservativeMichael Powell9,53119.4−0.2
LiberalMichael Butlin6,92314.1−7.1
Plaid CymruLindsay Whittle3,9558.1−5.5
Registered electors64,154
Labour holdSwing

Often it was claimed the only time anybody saw the Tory candidate was when he (it was nearly always a he) got of the train to attend the count on election day.

The Falklands' Factor and the rise of the SDP  (who split the Labour party more than the Tories) helped Thatcher  but she spent much of the time with nearly all the uK media on her side.

I am not convinced  that with a UK media including the BBC behind him . Johnson will get enough support to promote British/English  nationalism .that will keep him in power and turning our dreams into a nightmare.

No comments: