Wednesday, 3 April 2019

Wales cannot be tied to the destructive Brexit nationalism of England.

There is to me at least a very disturbing argument on  Click on Wales from Labour AM Mike Hedges , who Wikipedia state is s one of the few Welsh Labour members to support Welsh Independence.

The article "Is Wales too small or too poor to be independent?"  does dismiss the "too small" argument" but Mr Hedges then goes on to argue that Brexit will scupper any chance of an Independent Wales .

He writes .
What we have seen with Brexit is that there is a hard and soft split. A soft split from the UK would involve a customs union, free trade, free movement of people which implies common immigration rules, common welfare benefits, a currency union, common VAT, “sin” taxes, and allowing the Bank of England to act as the central bank. Under this scenario the only things that would change would be that an independent Wales would have a lower income from taxes and either poorer public services or higher income tax or a combination of both, but we would have a seat at the United Nations. A hard split from the UK would involve a hard border, no customs union, no free movement of people, a new Welsh currency and central bank and full control over taxes.  Trade with England would be on World Trade Organisation terms but again with a seat at the United Nations. If leaving the European Union on such terms would be against our interests leaving a union with the rest of the UK on such terms would be catastrophic. There are also additional costs with creating a new country such as embassies across the world, creating foreign policy and defence against terrorist attacks which will all be greater than we currently pay as our UK share. Whilst there are non-economic arguments against leaving the UK, otherwise London would set itself up as a city state, I have not addressed them here.  I have attempted to answer John Ball’s two questions: we are not poor or too small, but we would be a lot poorer than we are now if we had independence.

What Mr Hedges seems to be stating that although we are already the poorest nation in the UK and one of the poorest in Western Union, there is no way out and  we will be for ever tied  even as an independent nation to any trade treaty that the current UK or an English dominated union make.

He does not mention Scotland for who Independence  will likely see them being fast tracked into the European Union and even before that will have established a custom union and  the single market from day one.

Why not assume that Wales could in a few years after an Independent Scotland do likewise?
The EU may well consider moving the boarder with Ireland from either a hard Brexit   with Northern Ireland or a softer Irish Sea, to the Welsh Boarder with England a good idea.

Other wise we have a case akin to an controlling partner  advised to stay with their   abuser , because they would face a life of poverty if they attempted to make a life away from  them.

Whatever happens in the future Wales cannot, base this decision on the self destructive nationalism of England.

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