Friday, 19 April 2019

The best prospect for Remain in Wales is to vote Jill Evans and Plaid .

Over at Nation Cymru, Ifan Morgan Jones, makes a compelling case for a REMAIN pact in the forthcoming Euro Elections.

As he writes.

According to a YouGov poll published yesterday Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is on course to win two of Wales’ four European election seats.That this new party leads in the polls here after only four months of existence should be a wake-up call to those who have been campaigning for a People’s Vote.
If this single-issue pro-Brexit party does win big in Wales any argument that the nation has changed its mind on Brexit will be dead in the water.The stakes are high. Over the last two years, it has become clear that Brexit will be a disaster for Wales’ manufacturing, agricultural and higher education-driven economy.But the extension to the Brexit deadline has given Remainers hope that we may not leave after all.If Remain is seen to have won these elections on 23 May, the momentum which has already been leaking from Brexit will falter further.If on the other hand the Brexit Party, and other strongly pro-Brexit parties such as the Conservative and UKIP, get the majority of votes the mandate for Brexit will be renewed....
He goes on to say 
Nigel Farage had seen them coming a mile away and had already set up a single-issue party for the express purpose of vacuuming the pro-Brexit vote and making a big impression.
Meanwhile, Welsh Labour remain at sixes and sevens over Brexit and a vote for them is likely to be interpreted as an ambiguous one at the very least.
And the firmly pro-Remain vote in Wales is split up between four parties that have not staked a significant claim to it – Plaid Cymru, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and Change UK.
The D’Hont proportional representation used for the European elections punishes such splits, meaning that if Remain votes are scattered between four Remain parties it is very likely to reduce their share of the seats.
If these parties continue to work individually, only Plaid Cymru’s Jill Evans has a realistic hope of being elected as things stand.
But the fourth decisive seat is up for grabs, and only by working together can those firmly Remain parties keep it out of the Brexit Party’s hands.
These parties should therefore seriously consider some kind of pro-Remain pact. Together they could punch significantly above their individual weights.
Plaid Cymru and the Green MEPs actually represent the same European Party – the Green/European Free Alliance – at Brussels so it makes even more sense for them to work together.
One strategy would be for all these parties to stand under a Remain banner with Jill Evans first on the list and, given the significant political overlap between them, a candidate from one of the other parties in second place.

Its a compelling argument , though the moment seems to have already past and whilst Jill Evans (Plaid), would claim to head the Remain list it would be difficult to see which other party could claim the second name on the list and a potential second seat.

Apart from the fact that Plaid have already selected their candidates, the only possible pact could be the Greens in Wales not running and backing Plaid.

There's no chance of Labour doing any pact or it seems the Lib Dems pulling out or making a pact with Plaid.

Such is the media coverage without any analysis of Farage and his party , particularly  whose financing it , we could have a repeat that Leave could be seen to have won in the May election , whilst clearly breaking electoral rules on financial donations. Indeed  Farage Brexit party could put up the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse in Wales and win seats without having a single, foot on the streets .

So it may be better for Remain parties to seek traditional voters, whilst asking others to "Lend their Votes" than make any shoddy pact.

Maybe if I wasn't such a big supporter of Jill Evans and Plaid , I would think differently , but it seems the best prospect for Remain is to vote Plaid.

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