Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Tories may be unusually happy with poor opinion polls.

It may seem odd, but I suspect there are a number of Tory MPs looking  at the latest Opinion polls and smiling to themselves

Mike Smithson over at  at political betting writes 

"To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.
Although the polls in the table above are strictly about the next general election they probably give a good pointer to fact that it is going to be a struggle for the blue team especially as we’re getting all these reports of significant part of the Conservative General Election vote from last time now saying that it will be voting for Farage brexit party.
There is little doubt that the locals will see the Tories losing a lot of council seats and the interesting question is which party will be the big gainer. ChangeUK has hardly put up any candidates and Lib Dems and Greens are working hard, sometimes quite closely together, and that could prove very promising for them.
Whether the parliamentary Conservative Party is able to change the rules to allow a further challenge to Theresa May is hard to say. But there’s little doubt that if her party has big losses on May 2nd then that will make it extremely difficult for her. The real surprise, of course, was that Tory MPs allowed her to carry on in the June 2017 after TMay into an unnecessary General Election with a majority and ended up without
a majority. She’s really been on borrowed time since then".

But those Tories seeking to replace Prime Minister May and hasten Brexit , will not be worried with the loss of hundreds of English council seats and a poor showing in the forthcoming European elections.

Looking at the threat to their vote , they will (probably) rightly assume that if we leave the European Union before a General Election, then Farage's Brexit  Part y's support will wither away, and the majority of the 14%  for the Brexit Part and 5% for Ukip will transfer to them giving them a comfortable majority.

What will also satisfy them is the low position of CHUK-TIG, who have not as some suspected rocked the boat and who seem to be damaging Labour more than them .

What may wipe the smile of their faces however  is if Remain parties (SNP, Plaid, CHUK+TIG, Greens and Lob Dems all have a good showing in the European Elections.

Of course this does not depend on the size of the Remain vote, but the number of candidate elected.

That is why it is vital to vote SNP and Plaid in Scotland and LIb Dem, Green (CHUK+TIG?) in England .

Sending a message to both Tory and Labour Leavers that , you can expect  a return of Brexit-Ukip voters , after we leave the EU, but a large number may have well moved on,  will be looking for a different UK politics and a move to closer relations to Europe post Brexit, than what we exit with.

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