Friday, 5 April 2019

Labour win Newport West By-election.

The Newport West By-election has not sent an earthquake through Welsh Politics and very much went the way as predicted.

It seems Brexit may have had little effect on the result and even Ukip third place may have been due to Neil Hamilton notoriety .

The position of the top Six has been unchanged in the last three elections.
Newport West by-election 2019
LabourRuth Jones9,30839.6-12.7
ConservativeMatthew Evans7,35731.3-8.0
UKIPNeil Hamilton2,0238.6+6.1
Plaid CymruJonathan Clark1,1855.0+2.5
Liberal DemocratRyan Jones1,0884.6+2.4
GreenAmelia Womack9243.9+2.8
RenewJune Davies8793.7N/A
Abolish the Welsh AssemblyRichard Suchorzewski2050.9N/A
SDPIan McLean2020.9N/A
Democrats and VeteransPhilip Taylor1850.8N/A
For BritainHugh Nicklin1590.7N/A
Registered electors
Labour holdSwing-2.4

The last election saw the late Paul Flynn Comfortably ahead

General Election 2017: Newport West
LabourPaul Flynn[6]22,72352.3+11.1
ConservativeAngela Jones-Evans[7][6]17,06539.3+6.8
UKIPStan Edwards1,1002.5-12.7
Plaid CymruMorgan Bowler-Brown[6]1,0772.5-1.5
Liberal DemocratSarah Lockyer9762.2-1.7
GreenPippa Bartolotti[8]4971.1-2.0
Registered electors64,399
Labour holdSwing+2.2
Though Ukip have seen their vote decline in the last four years.
General Election 2015: Newport West[9]
LabourPaul Flynn16,63341.2-0.1
ConservativeNick Webb13,12332.5+0.2
UKIPGordon Norrie6,13415.2+12.3
Plaid CymruSimon Coopey1,6044.0+1.2
Liberal DemocratEd Townsend1,5813.9-12.7
GreenPippa Bartolotti1,2723.2+2.1
Registered electors62,137
Labour holdSwing-0.1

Maybe Ukip are probably the happiest  with their third place and Plaid the most frustrated and wondering if Labour's lies about them forming a coalition with the Tories after the next Assembly election had any affect .

For the Liberal Democrats this was not one of the seats that they have ever made a serious challenge too, and it looks like Newport West , will remain a two seat marginal for a while longer.

Brexit for some reason seems to have had little effect on the result and it appears that both parties who think that Brexit will favour them and those who advocate Remain thinking it will break the two party system are misguided.

Indeed as the Tories and Labour continue meeting to find some way out of the Brexit deadlock they may not be too worried about a negative response from the voters.

But we will see.

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