Monday, 29 April 2019

Independentistas may hold balance of power after Spanish General election.

Catalonia Independence  will still be the major political story in Spain after  the Spanish General Election which the Socialist PSOE won, but leaves independentistas in a strong position.

As the Guardian reports

Spain’s ruling socialists won the most votes but fell short of a majority in Sunday’s snap general election, a contest marked by the breakthrough of the far-right Vox party and a disastrous performance by the country’s traditional conservative party.
Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE) won 123 seats, the conservative People’s party (PP) 66, the centre-right Citizens party 57, the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos and its allies 42, and Vox 24.
Despite it being the country’s third general election in under four years, turnout was 75.8% – well up on the 66.5% two years ago.
Sánchez hailed the result and the high turnout as proof of Spain’s desire to move forward and reject the reactionary policies of some of his rightwing opponents.
“We made it happen,” he told supporters in Madrid, echoing the PSOE’s campaign slogan. “We’ve sent out the message that we don’t want to regress or reverse. We want a country that looks forwards and advances.”
However, the PSOE will still need to seek the support of other parties to reach the 176 seats necessary to form a government in Spain’s 350-seat congress of deputies.
Even with the support of Unidas Podemos and related groups, it would still be 11 seats short of a majority and would need the help of smaller regional and nationalist parties.

This is the best fit I can make.
 Summary of 28 April 2019 Congress of Deputies election results
Parties and coalitionsPopular voteSeats
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)7,480,75528.68+6.05123+38
People's Party (PP)14,356,02316.70–15.8766–69
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)1 34,136,60015.86+2.6857+25
United We Can (Unidas Podemos)3,732,92914.31–5.4042–24
United We Can (PodemosIUeQuo)23,118,19111.95–4.2135–19
In Common We Can–Let's Win the Change (ECP)614,7382.36–1.197–5
Vox (Vox)42,677,17310.26+10.0624+24
Republican Left of Catalonia–Sovereigntists (ERC–Sobiranistes)1,019,5583.91+1.2815+6
Together for Catalonia–Together (JxCat–Junts)5497,6381.91–0.107–1
Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)394,6271.51+0.326+1
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)326,0451.25+0.060±0
Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu)258,8400.99+0.224+2
CommitmentBlocInitiativeGreens Equo (Compromís 2019)172,7510.66New1+1
Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party (CCaPNC)137,1960.53+0.202+1
From the Table we can see (ERC–Sobiranistes)making gains in  Catalonia and other independistas and"regionalist"  parties making gains

Vox performed slightly below expectations, but is still a worrying trend but has still managed to become the first far-right grouping to win more than a single seat in congress since Spain returned to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975.

With leading Independistas on trial for organising the Catalonia Independence  referendum ,(some of who were elected last night) together with clearly trumped up charges of promoting violence. The issue of Catalonia is not going away and PSOE leader and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s, will have to decide whether he bows to the far right as represented by VOX, or seek to resolve the independence  issue in Catalonia  and the Basque country.

It could well be that Jeremy Corbyn will face a similar dilemma after the next UK General Election , with the SNP holding the balance of power.

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