Thursday, 11 April 2019

TRICK OR TREAT; an apt metaphor for Brexit.

So Mrs May comes back from Brussels with her tail behind her legs, gaining a sort of compromise, but we could only wonder what made her accept the day of October 31st. Something that is a gift to both Hard Line Brexiteers  and Remainers.

What can be achieved in undersix months by a Prime Minister who has already failed to get her "Deal" through is unclear.

She has not moved an iota, and there is no movement on the UK boarder with Ireland and is faced with a opposition leader who whilst a Hard Line Breixeteer , leads a party whose MPs are for the most part Remain.

The European Elections are at least going to be interesting , and we do have an indication of which way Wales is intending to vote from 

He writes...

..In addition to the standard questions on voting intentions, the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll also asked a substantial number of questions about various matters related to the EU and Brexit.A first one was how people might vote in the event of the UK taking part in the May European Parliament elections. We asked people how they would vote if these elections do happen (as currently appears increasingly unlikely) ; once those saying Don’t Know or that they would not vote are eliminated, these are the levels of support for the parties that we found:Labour: 30%Conservative: 16%Plaid Cymru: 15%UKIP: 11%Brexit Party: 10%Change UK: 8%Liberal Democrats: 6%Greens: 5%Others: 1%

These figures are immediately, and obviously, bad for the Conservatives. While Labour’s support for the European elections is only three percentage points lower than for the general election, the Conservatives slip a full ten points. Such figures in an actual European election would mean that the Labour party would win two of Wales’ four European Parliament seats, with one going to each of the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.

How much thing will change is any ones guess, though it be interesting   to see if the Brexit-Ukip and other Hard Leave parties will cancel each other out ,

Of course selection of candidates will be paramount .

Those with sitting MEP (if they are not demob happy) are at an advantage, but the question must be asked whose going to stand for a job that is going to last till October 31st or even shorter if Westminster can vote to leave earlier.

There's always a possibility that the vast bulk of UK &N MEPs elected in May will be retirees  an pensioners.

At 65 myself is suppose it might be an attraction, but it will be a poor representation  if all we get is Pensioners out for a few months on the  gravy ot trying to screw up al the procedures .

A september second referendum seems to be the best option in which we can by an Alternative Vote of options of

  1. Remain,
  2. Deal without  Customs Union.
  3. Deal with Customs Union.
  4. Deal with Customs UnIon & Freedom of Movement.
  5. No Deal.

 It will at least give Westminster the opportunity to come up with something other than the First or Last  option  (although n favour the first), to offer us.

But don't hold your hopes up.

No comments: