Latest Poll takes us back to square one in Wales

The latest Welsh barometer poll  comes as shock only that it shows a  a return to the norm with huge reversal in the positions of Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour up nine points and the Tories down seven.

Previous polling had suggested that the Conservatives were about to make a historic breakthrough in Wales, seizing a slew of seats from Labour and sending more Welsh MPs to Westminster than any other party. However, if these numbers are accurate, only a single seat will change hands — as Labour take Gower back from the Conservatives. 

Conservatives: 41% (+1)
Labour: 35% (+5)
Plaid Cymru: 11% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)

A situation one commentator seemed to think was not so bad if  it kept out Plaid out.

The Tories look set to make deep inroads into South and North Wales. Veteran contrarian Paul Flynn is set to lose while Kevin Brennan is in a dead heat in Cardiff West. Perhaps most strikingly, Owen Smith, who challenged Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership, is within a couple of thousand votes of losing in Pontypridd.
However, as bad as the situation looks, it could be worse. What happened in Scotland does not seem imminent in Wales.
It’s notable that Plaid’s number one target, Ynys Mon, a seat where they finished just 1% behind Labour in 2015 looks set to swing to the Tories rather than them.
The structure of Labour’s problem in Wales is as elsewhere across England: banks of Ukip votes tumbling to the Tories while Jeremy Corbyn turns off traditional Labour voters. Dreadful as this is, it’s still better than Plaid expanding across North Wales, breaking into South Wales and shutting Labour out entirely, as the SNP have in Scotland.

Latest

Of course there may be a few changes in individual  seats however but it looks the squeeze on other Parties is on.

For Plaid in particular it id a disappointing  poll after what did look like promise.

Some have been comparing Plaid to the SNP  but lets remember that even with a much more viable Scottish Media  the SNP 

974 (Feb)	21.9%	7 / 71
1974 (Oct)	30.4%	11 / 71	High-water mark, until 2015. Increased presence contributed to Labour holding a devolution referendum in 1979.
1979	17.3%	2 / 71	Poor performance compared to the two 1974 elections caused internal ructions during the 1980s.
1983	11.7%	2 / 72
1987	14.0%	3 / 72	During this period the SNP did win the Govern By election with Jim Sillars
1992	21.5%	3 / 72	A large rise in the SNP vote saw no increase in seats but did highlight that Scotland had voted against the Tories and despite  50 Labour MPs the  feeble 50) these were largely useless when it came to fighting Scotland cause
1997	22.1%	6 / 72	Th year of Balir's victory  and when there were no Tories in Scotland and Wales
2001	20.1%	5 / 72
2005	17.7%	6 / 59
2010	19.9%	6 / 59
2015	50.0%	56 / 59

The Independence referendum changed everything , but in order to to do this the SNP had to win in Holyrood .

Before then they, as Plaid are now were caught in a Catch 22 situation that in order to garner momentum they first had to win .

No Plaid leader has managed to make such an impact in UK elections as Leanne Wood  and I suspect a replacement would find it very hard..

Unless Plaid were to get lucky and there's a by election  win in the next few years which would create the momentum , but after the elation of 1974 the SNP found it hard going,

Clearly the answer is to win control of the Assembly , but even this could be a hard task.