The latest opinion polls have produced a result polls have had three different parties in the lead
Sorry about the mess but its's the best I can do, to copy the data over. It's clearer here.
Clearly there is a Brexit Party, Liberal Democrat bounce and a opinion polling not seen since the 1980's when the SDP formed the SDP–Liberal Alliance with the Liberal Party in June 1981, under the joint leadership of Roy Jenkins (SDP) and Liberal leader David Steel. ] During an era of public disillusionment with the two main parties – Labour and the Conservatives – and widescale unemployment, the Alliance achieved considerable success at parliamentary by-elections. At one point in late-1981, the party had an opinion poll rating of over 50%.
That of course didn't materialise , but the above table does show a remarkable change in voting intentions.
With an average of about 2000 people sampled, the figures for both Plaid Cymru and the SNP are misleading
Population
England – 54 million,
Scotland – Scotland i 5.47 million by 1st July of 2019
Wales – Wales 3.1 million.
With Scotland having about the 10th of the English Population and Wales eben lower , the voting intentions of both are swamped by that of England.
Indeed the figures SNP 4% and Plaid 1% are so small they are often excluded
Though if 200 odd people were contacted in Scotland it would look like 40% for the SNP (if you accepted such a small sample) and even Plaid could be on the 20% it obtained in last months Euro Elections.
Scotland to a large extent have broken the UK polling model and do not seem to be influenced by polling as the "UK" polls as Wales does.
But there is a bit of Chicken and Egg thing and it is arguable that Opinion Polls can in themselves influence voting.
Hence the Liberal Democrats little Bar Charts and people being told the party they support can't win here.
With a very small Welsh Media the influence of the Unionist Parties spills over . Plaid managed to counter this last month but it will be harder to do so in the next General Election in the UK.
1 comment:
Glyn, Ed Davey MP and Kingston upon Thames Lib Dems often post those Labour Can't Win Here leaflets through my letter box in New Malden but where do you see them in Beddau?
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