Monday, 17 June 2019

A No-Deal Brexit could destroy Welsh hopes for Independence.

Although an Independista I must admit that  headlines  such as ..

"Chaotic no-deal Brexit threatens the future of the UK, Welsh minister warns."

does not fill me with gleeful anticipation.

The Wasting Mule reports that

"A chaotic no-deal Brexit threatens the “very future” of the United Kingdom, Wales’ Brexit minister Jeremy Miles will warn in a speech today.
The Welsh Government minister will insist that the way the nations of the UK work together will need to change if the union is to survive.

His speech at a Wales Governance Centre event in Cardiff comes after Conservative leadership contender Dominic Raab warned yesterday that the Tory party will be “toast” unless it takes Britain out of the EU by the October 31 deadline, and after it was last night revealed that Labour deputy leader Tom Watson is to mount a renewed push for the Labour party to wholeheartedly back a second EU referendum.
Mr Miles will say:
“As things currently stand we will leave the EU on 31 October, potentially in a catastrophic no-deal scenario.
“We are likely facing a straight choice between a no deal Brexit or remaining in the EU – and we are unequivocal in backing remain. To make this happen, we are calling on Parliament to legislate for a referendum, with remain on the ballot paper.“It is my view that a disorderly, chaotic exit from the EU would threaten the very future of the United Kingdom, and no amount of reform of the current intergovernmental relations will be capable of mitigating that risk.“In future, the devolved administrations must be fully involved in negotiating our international relationships. We need to see concrete progress and an undertaking that compromise will be needed on all sides. In that way, we have a chance of delivering change.“There have been successes, and there are encouraging signs across Whitehall that the penny is beginning to drop. Welsh Government will continue to lead the debate, and to make the case for a set of intergovernmental structures which meet the challenges we face now, and will face in the coming years.”Two years ago the Welsh Government published Brexit and Devolution, a plan to address the implications of Brexit for the devolution settlement, intergovernmental relations, and the UK constitution. The policy document, aimed to contribute to the debate both in  Wales and across the UK, and, for example, called for a new UK Council of Ministers forum.The Brexit Minister will say: “When we published ‘Brexit and Devolution’, we didn’t claim to have all the answers. We said:' here are the issues we face as a result of Brexit..... and here are our proposals for change.'.“Two years on, what’s changed? The short answer is not enough.“Today, people under 40 can barely imagine a world without devolution, but in many ways the UK Government’s approach still reflects a very dated ‘grace and favour’ attitude: if we behave ourselves, the UK Government will, out of the goodness of its hearts, allow us some limited powers of self-government.“The existing, inadequate intergovernmental arrangements and structures remain, without even an agreed plan for how they might be reformed. In that sense, nothing has changed. No progress has been made in respect of our call for a Council of Ministers, or for a better system for dispute resolution. And that is deeply disappointing.“If we are to see real progress, we need a change in attitude towards devolution, based on mutual respect and parity of esteem and participation between the various governments.”
Of course even if there was a miraculous  conversion of both the Tories and the Labour Leadership , we are going to leave the EU under a No-Deal scenario, which lead to an economic disaster in which Wales will be worst hit.

For Scotland the solution of holding an Independence referendum and reentering the EU sooner than later looks like a real possibility.

For Wales however unless the hegemony of Labour is broken to be replaced by a dynamic and  ambitious party seeking Independence within a decade (or sooner), winning the 2021 Assembly elections , the future looks very bleak.

A rise in support for Independence unless it wins a majority of support from the Welsh Public will not be able to stop the disaster we are facing.

Yes an increase  in Plaid MPs, AM,s and councillors , will be most welcome and may lead people to imagine that an Independent Wales  is possible.

But we will be facing an even worse combined attack from both Unionists and the Media  that the SNP face now.

Rather than "mutual respect and parity of esteem and participation between the various governments.”, we will face vexatious combination of Tory/Farage English Nationalism and Labour, Liberal Democrat Unionism.

As Wales after Brexit , falls in to even worse poverty than it is now, rather than seeking a solution to being "Poor West Britons", through Independence  those  in Wales who recently voted for Farage's Brexit Party" , may come to believe the answer is to accept our fate and become merely an annexe of a xenophobic England.

"Chaotic no-deal Brexit threatens the future of the UK, Welsh minister warns."

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