Friday, 7 June 2019

Peterborough by-election Brexit limited company come up short.

In some ways the Conservatives may not be to distressed about , their third place in the Peterborough byelection.

When it was obvious that  after  the Labour MP Fiona Onasanya  had bee n convicted and imprisoned  after being charged with perverting the course of justice in relation to two speeding incidents which occurred in 2017 it looked like in what was a Labour- Tory  marginal any byelection would be a two horse race.

Then out of  nowhere a well financed and organised Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage appeared and put the two main parties to the sword.

The recall petition was called on 19 March and was available for signature until 1 May 2019.[]On the day prior to the recall petition being called, Onasanya released a video protesting her innocence.

On 1 May it was announced that the recall petition had exceeded the necessary threshold of being signed by 10% of electors in her seat: 19,261 electors, or 27.6%, had signed the petition. As a result, her seat was declared vacant, causing a by-election in Peterborough.

Still under normal condition  it may well have been only the Liberal Democrats ewho could provide a shock.
General Election 2017: Peterborough[77]
LabourFiona Onasanya22,95048.1+12.5
ConservativeStewart Jackson22,34346.8+7.1
Liberal DemocratBeki Sellick1,5973.3−0.4
GreenFiona Radić8481.8-0.8
Labour gain from Conservative 480Swing+2.7

Still on a turnout of 48.04%  Farage's limited company masquerading as tge Brexit Part almost provided a shock
General Election 2015: Peterborough[78]
ConservativeStewart Jackson18,68439.7-0.7
LabourLisa Forbes16,75935.6+6.1
UKIPMary Herdman7,48515.9+9.2
Liberal DemocratDarren Fower1,7743.8-15.9
GreenDarren Bisby-Boyd1,2182.6+1.4
LiberalChris Ash6391.4N/A
IndependentJohn Fox5161.1N/A
Conservative holdSwing-3.4
Still on a smaller turnout  of
2019 by-election: Peterborough[76]
LabourLisa Forbes10,48431-17
BrexitMike Greene9,80129+29
ConservativePaul Bristow7,24321-25
Liberal DemocratBeki Sellick4,15912+9
GreenJoseph Wells1,0353+1
UKIPJohn Whitby4001+1
Christian PeoplesTom Rogers162
English DemocratStephen Goldspink153
SDPPatrick O'Flynn135
Monster Raving LoonyAlan 'Howling Laud' Hope112
No descriptionAndrew Moore101
Common GoodDick Rodgers60
RenewPeter Ward45
UK EUPierre Kirk25
No descriptionBobby Smith5
Labour holdSwing

Clearly it was the Conservatives  who were the big losers but they will probably argue that a vote for the Brexit Party will lead to a Corbyn government so expect them to spon this.

What was unusual was that the Liberal Democrats were not entirely squeezed and saq a 9% increase in their vote and they and the Greens actually saw an increase in the number of votes.

What this means for UK politics is unclear, bur foe Wales and Scotland  if you don't want  to be run by a Xenophobic English Nationalism of a Tory-Brexit Party in Westminster , then especially those who voted for Remain parties in the Euro Elections  must ironically think about leaving another Union.

1 comment:

Gav said...

It could be that Woody Johnson's and Donald Trump's unwitting and ill-timed truth-telling that the NHS will be a part of any future trade deal may have scared away just enough Brexit supporters to win the seat for Labour. It'll all be forgotten in a week or so and Brexit back on track.