Friday, 22 February 2013

ITV poll Labour unchallenged . Tories by UKip

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales shows Labour well ahead when it comes to all voting Intentions in Waled with UKip making the headlines

Assembly Constituency vote

Labour 50% (up 8%)

Conservatives 19% (down 6%)

Plaid Cymru 17% (down 2%)

Liberal Democrats 7% (down 4%)

Others 8% (up 5%)

It's how people say they would cast their regional list votes that Ukip make the break through .

Regional Vote
Labour 35% (down 2%)

Plaid Cymru 20% (up 2%)

UKIP 12% (up 7%)

Conservatives 11% (down 12%)

Liberal Democrats 8% (no change)

Greens 7% (up 4%)

Others 6% (no change)

This could lead to the Assembly make up being

Labour 31-33 (up 3)

Plaid Cymru 13 (up 2)

UKIP 5 (up 5)

Conservatives 5-7(down 9)

Liberal Democrats 4 (down 1)

So Labour gain an overall majority whilst thr Tories lose out to UKip on the regional lists . Plaid would gain seats and by default rather than spectacular vote become the main opposition.

For the Westminster Election it looks grim for the Liberal Democrats 

UK General Election Vote
Labour 54% (up 18%)
Conservatives 23% (down 3%)
Plaid Cymru 10% (down 1%)
Liberal Democrats 4% (down 16%)
Others 9% (up 3%)
It is also notable that the Tories received 21% of the vote in 2001 and failed to win a seat .

But it is Labour are also poised to make enormous vote gains in the European Parliament elections next year, with a 24% spike in their vote compared to the 2009 elections, to 44%.
The Tories would see their vote increase by 2% to 23%, but Ukip would ironically drop four points to 9%, while the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru would also see their votes fall.
Projections, calculated by psephologist Dr Denis Balsom, would see Labour take three MEPs, with the Tories one, and Ukip seeing their only MEP - John Bufton - disappear
 Though I cant see this and put Labour on Two Conservatives on One and Plaid picking up the fourth seat.

But all this proves that all Labour need to to do is not be the Con/Lib Westminster government as they did in the Thatcher era.

The challenge for Plaid in particular is to offer the people of Wales an radical alternative and that means pushing forward the Independence agenda particularly comparing Wales and Scotland.

The people of Waled may be turning to Labour but they are not the answer can Plaid provide it.

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