Tuesday, 5 February 2013

Eastleigh Byelection could bring down government.

After yesterdays posy on the hardly earth shattering Bryncoch byelection comes news that we will so having one of the most Interesting Byelections for a long time .

I mean of course I mean Chris Huhne' seat of Eastleigh

If it wasn't for the fact that Huhne dramatic fall could result in a Byelection defeat that will be the final nail in his leadership . I doubt that Nick Clegg would be to concerned
During theLiberal Democrat  leadership election, Nick Clegg registered a formal complaint about Huhne's conduct to Lord Rennard, the party's Chief Whip and returning officer.Clegg stated that his rival was indulging in "the politics of innuendo, mounting false challenges and running a campaign that is handing political ammunition to the party's political opponents".]Huhne and Clegg were debating on live television on BBC's The Politics Show on Sunday 18 November 2007 when the presenter Jon Sopel produced a briefing document that had been specially delivered to the show's production team by the Huhne campaign team on the preceding Friday The document excoriated Clegg on a number of policy and political issues and was titled "Calamity Clegg". When challenged about the document issued by his office, Huhne claimed that he had no knowledge of it and said he did not agree with the document title but agreed with the points within it. When challenged how it was possible that he had no knowledge of such a major document sent to the producer of the show he was due to appear on, Huhne replied "It's quite impossible to check everything that goes out of the office... But I can assure you that's not had my authorization.] After Clegg complained about what he called "dirty tricks" and other senior party members condemned the Huhne campaign attack, Huhne's Campaign Manager Anna Werrin claimed that the title of the memo was just the product of an "over-zealous researcher" and had not been seen or approved by Huhne or any senior campaign officials prior to release. "The document title had not been approved before the document was sent out and neither Chris nor I were aware of it."
But to fight the Byelection with your former MP on Jail  a former rival or not wil be hard .

The seat has been Liberal Democrat since David Chidgey won the 1994 byelection and held in the subsequent General election

It is interesting to note.the result.

By-election 1994: Eastleigh
Liberal DemocratDavid Chidgey24,47344.3+16.3
LabourMarilyn Birks15,23427.6+6.9
ConservativeStephen Allison13,67524.7−26.6
UKIPNigel Farage9521.7N/A
Monster Raving LoonyScreaming Lord Sutch7831.4N/A
Natural LawP. Warburton1450.3N/A
Liberal Democrat gain from ConservativeSwing+21.5

Labour also took a fair share of the vote and as you can see Nigel Farage  made his first attempt on Westminster and his possible intervention may of interest. Though ironically he might find leading the UKip in next years European Elections more attractive.

Although on paper it should be a Con LibDem contest  you can't rule out UKip and even Labour they had a poor result in 2010
General Election 2010: Eastleigh[4]
Liberal DemocratChris Huhne24,96646.5+8.2
ConservativeMaria Hutchings21,10239.3+2.1
LabourLeo Barraclough5,1539.6−11.5
UKIPRay Finch1,9333.6+0.2
English DemocratsTony Pewsey2490.5N/A
IndependentDave Stone1540.3N/A
National Liberal Party - Third WayKeith Low930.2N/A
Liberal Democrat holdSwing3

But have constantly received over 20% of the vote in previous elections and with a split Tory-Ukip vote and LibDem defectors it may not be beyond them.One can be sure this Byelection will receive greater coverage than any have for decades.

It is the first Byelection that the LibDem could lose a seat in most peopled memory.

If the Libdem fail to hold the seat it can be written off as a reaction to Huhne's fall but if they come third or even fourth then Huhne may be responsible in a way for Nick Cleggs replacement as LibDem leader even bringing down the coalition and the government.

Alas for him he will not be the man who will lead his party from the wreckage.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

All the lefties who voted lib dem "to keep the tories out" will go back to labour, all the protest voters who voted lib dem "because the others are all the same" will vote UKIP.

The result will be the Tories winning the seat, foreshadowing. The same will happen UK wide in 2015 giving us a Tory majority government. All part of Dave's master plan.