Saturday, 1 December 2012

How well did UKIP really do last Thursday?

The idea that UKIP did well in the three by-elections only hold waters when you consider how badly the other parties did

Only Labour did anything like as  well UKIP and  in three constituencies only managed to obtain 8038 voted

OK a great Improvement on their previous vote  and they were the only Party to Increase their vote but it stands out because of the collapse in the Conservative and LibDem votes. and Indeed Labour,saw the greatest fall in actual nimbers.

UKIP did well to come from a small base but the second place in middles borough was with 1990 votes and even the much vaunted Rotherham result where they had received somewhat favourable publicity they received less than 5000 vote.

What is clear that there is now no third party in England for people with progressive views to turn to.

Before 2010 the LibDems may well have won one of these seats particularly Rotherham where the previous MP had  resigned in disgrace and a candidate was imposed on the local constituency party.

It seems however for the majority of people there was no real choice in any of these constituencies and they stayed at home.


Ap William said...

Lower turnouts are fairly typical in by-elections. Voter disenchantment may be a factor but you cannot dismiss the trend of people using UKIP to register their protest. I foresee further tory defections to the independence party with Lib Dems with nowhere to go but Labour's doorstep.

glynbeddau said...

AP William

I'm not dismissing it I'm just saying its not spectacular compared with some of the swings Parties like the LibDems, SNP Plaid have experienced in the past . Even against Labour when they were in opposition.

UKIP have a long way to go to match a result like Govern for the SNP or a close call like Caerphilly for Plaid not forgotten a string of LibDem by-election results in the Thatcher era,