Thursday, 15 August 2019

Ynys Mon clearly one of the seats to watchin next Election.

The news that Labour's Albert Owen has announced he is to stand down at the next general election makes it one of the Key Seats  at the next election
The MP for Ynys Mon said personal reasons were behind his decision and would stay until the next scheduled poll in 2022.
However he added that if an snap election, as has been predicted as Brexit remains deadlocked, then he would not be able to continue for a further five years..

Although a Plaid target seat  for a number of elections Mr Owen has managed to hold the seat after wining it from Plaid in 2001 and could well have  done so again.
Though now it is three way marginal with Plaid because of the shock election call perhaps not being prepared and selecting ex MP and AM  Ieuab Wyn Jones .
General election 2017: Ynys Môn[17]
LabourAlbert Owen15,64341.9+10.7
ConservativeTomos Davies10,38427.8+6.6
Plaid CymruIeuan Wyn Jones10,23727.4−3.1
UKIPJames Turner6241.7−13.0
Liberal DemocratSarah Jackson4791.3−0.9
Registered electors52,921
Labour holdSwing+2.1
General election 2015: Ynys Môn[18][19][20]
LabourAlbert Owen10,87131.1−2.2
Plaid CymruJohn Rowlands10,64230.5+4.3
ConservativeMichelle Willis7,39321.2−1.3
UKIPNathan Gill5,12114.7+11.2
Liberal DemocratMark Rosenthal7512.2−5.4
Socialist LabourLiz Screen1480.4N/A
Registered electors49,939
Labour holdSwing−3.2

This is because voters on the Island do not like changing their  sitting MP rather than the party he or she represents.
Since the  Second World War despite often being marginal it has only seen the Island change colour tfour  times 
Cledwyn Hughes  actually beat the sitting MP  Lady Megan Lloyd George in 1951 and hels it untill  his retirement in 1979
General election 1951: Anglesey
LabourCledwyn Hughes11,81440.1+0.1
LiberalMegan Lloyd George11,21938.2−8.5
ConservativeO Meurig Roberts6,36621.7+8.4
Registered electors36,117
Labour gain from LiberalSwing
Lady Megan  returned  then ironically won a byelection for Labour in Carmarthen in 1997.
Cledwyn however built up a comfortable majority over the years and when he retired in 1979 it was expected that Elystan  Morgan who was once a leading light for Plaid and on his defection  won Ceredigion For Labour ( in 1966 losing it to the liberals in 1974) would win .
However in the Tory Landslide of 1979 it was won by aKeith Best was born in Brighton,  for the Conservatives.
General election 1979: Anglesey
ConservativeKeith Best15,10039.0+15.2
LabourElystan Morgan12,28331.7−9.9
Plaid CymruJohn L Williams7,86320.3+1.2
LiberalJohn Gwynedd Jones3,5009.0−6.5
Registered electors47,726
Conservative gain from LabourSwing+12.5

Best who learned Welsh  resigned his seat in 1987 following the revelation by the Labour Research Department that he had made multiple share applications in the BT offer (for which he was later convicted and  was sentenced to four months' imprisonment for this deception and was fined £3,000. On 5 October 1987, the Court of Appeal ruled that his jail sentence was too harsh, and Best was released but his fine was increased to £4,500.
However there was no Byelection as the General Election was called .
In the previous election Plaid has moved up to second place and it was Ieuan Wyn Jones who won .

General election 1987: Ynys Môn[29][30]
Plaid CymruIeuan Wyn Jones18,58043.2+9.9
ConservativeRoger Evans14,28233.2−4.3
LabourColin Parry7,25216.9±0.0
Social DemocraticIeuan Wilson Evans2,8636.7−5.6
Registered electors52,633
Plaid Cymru gain from ConservativeSwing+7.2
He held the seat in subsequent elections  and it became a contest largely between Plaid and Labour . However when Ieuan stood down after switching to the new Welsh Assembly, the Plaid Candidate  was unable to hold it
ral election 2001: Ynys Môn[24]
LabourAlbert Owen11,90635.0+1.8
Plaid CymruEilian Williams11,10632.6−6.8
ConservativeAlbie Fox7,65322.5+1.0
Liberal DemocratNicholas Bennett2,7728.1+4.3
UKIPFrancis Wykes3591.1N/A
IndependentNona Donald2220.7N/A
Registered electors53,398
Labour gain from Plaid CymruSwing+4.3

Plaid of course  comfortably hold the Assembly seat  with  Rhun ap Iorwerth and despite a strong Tory presence , must consider the next election will be their best chance to turn it green.
It would always have been a target seat, hopefully  there is a candidate of the calibre of  Rhun ap Iorwerth , but may not have much time yo do so.

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