Monday, 26 August 2019

Johnson may well go for an October election/

The speculation that Prime Minister Johnson will cal an early election this Autumn continues.He will be looking at he recent polls where, the Tories have an healthy lead over Labour  and have seemingly regained  votes lost to Farage's Brexit Limited Company.

ConLabLib DemSNPPlaid CymruUKIPGreenChange UKBrexitOtherLead
YouGov/The Sunday Times22–23 AugGB2,01933%21%19%4%1%0%7%0%14%1%12%
Opinium/The Observer21–23 AugGB2,00532%26%15%5%1%1%4%0%16%1%6%
YouGov/The Times20–21 AugGB1,68732%22%20%4%1%0%7%0%12%2%10%
Kantar15–19 AugGB1,13342%28%15%5%0%0%3%1%5%1%14%
YouGov/The Times13–14 AugGB1,62530%21%20%4%1%1%8%0%14%2%9%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph9–11 AugGB2,01131%27%16%3%0%1%4%0%16%2%4%
BMG/The Independent7–12 AugGB1,53231%25%19%3%1%1%6%0%12%2%6%
Survation6–11 AugUK2,04028%24%21%4%0%0%3%0%15%4%4%

OF course as Theressa May found out  there can be a big difference  in an election campaign , where her forecasted landslide  turned into her loosing  and her majority.seats  

The next UK General Election is in 2022 if Johnson goes the full term, but he might consider  that three years is not enough for even his most optimistic forecast for a Brexit economy to see any fruition,

Certainly he would not like to go to the country if Operation Yelowhammer a secret Whitehall dossier on the impact of a no-deal Brexit, comes true
The leaked documents suggest the UK will be hit with a three-month "meltdown" at its ports, a hard Irish border and shortages of food and medicine as part of a series of "aftershocks" when it crashes out of the EU.
According to the documents, published in the Sunday Times, petrol import tariffs would "inadvertently" lead to the closure of two oil refineries, while protests across the UK could "require significant amounts of police resources" in a no-deal scenario.
A senior Whitehall source told paper: "This is not Project Fear - this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios - not the worst case."
By 2024 if he was to win in 2019 however even if the worst forecast were to prove true he could conceivably still argue that it is all be fault of the EU and created a Trade agreement with the US  however unfavourable  , that would be hard to revoke.
He may well have also built an  state that has reversed much of the last decades of Human Rights and Welfare  legislation and a division of class that sees the poor and dispossessed exclude from the democratic process in the same way the Republicans are doing in the USA.
Indeed  just as Thatcherism  emasculated the left in Britain and  left a legacy that resulted i Blairism which despite its hype did  nothing to reverse Anti-Trade Union legislation  and son ditched an "ethical foreign policy " for Neo-liberalism.
Indeed  with Corbyn presumably gone Labour could  end up with a Blair clone who receives the same backing from the real power in the land he did,  

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