The speculation that Prime Minister Johnson will cal an early election this Autumn continues.He will be looking at he recent polls where, the Tories have an healthy lead over Labour and have seemingly regained votes lost to Farage's Brexit Limited Company.
OF course as Theressa May found out there can be a big difference in an election campaign , where her forecasted landslide turned into her loosing and her majority.seats
The next UK General Election is in 2022 if Johnson goes the full term, but he might consider that three years is not enough for even his most optimistic forecast for a Brexit economy to see any fruition,
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted | Area | Sample size | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | Green | Change UK | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/The Sunday Times | 22–23 Aug | GB | 2,019 | 33% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 14% | 1% | 12% |
| Opinium/The Observer | 21–23 Aug | GB | 2,005 | 32% | 26% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 16% | 1% | 6% |
| YouGov/The Times | 20–21 Aug | GB | 1,687 | 32% | 22% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 12% | 2% | 10% |
| Kantar | 15–19 Aug | GB | 1,133 | 42% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 14% |
| YouGov/The Times | 13–14 Aug | GB | 1,625 | 30% | 21% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 0% | 14% | 2% | 9% |
| ComRes/The Daily Telegraph | 9–11 Aug | GB | 2,011 | 31% | 27% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 16% | 2% | 4% |
| BMG/The Independent | 7–12 Aug | GB | 1,532 | 31% | 25% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 12% | 2% | 6% |
| Survation | 6–11 Aug | UK | 2,040 | 28% | 24% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 15% | 4% | 4% |
OF course as Theressa May found out there can be a big difference in an election campaign , where her forecasted landslide turned into her loosing and her majority.seats
The next UK General Election is in 2022 if Johnson goes the full term, but he might consider that three years is not enough for even his most optimistic forecast for a Brexit economy to see any fruition,
Certainly he would not like to go to the country if Operation Yelowhammer a secret Whitehall dossier on the impact of a no-deal Brexit, comes true
The leaked documents suggest the UK will be hit with a three-month "meltdown" at its ports, a hard Irish border and shortages of food and medicine as part of a series of "aftershocks" when it crashes out of the EU.
According to the documents, published in the Sunday Times, petrol import tariffs would "inadvertently" lead to the closure of two oil refineries, while protests across the UK could "require significant amounts of police resources" in a no-deal scenario.
A senior Whitehall source told paper: "This is not Project Fear - this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios - not the worst case."
By 2024 if he was to win in 2019 however even if the worst forecast were to prove true he could conceivably still argue that it is all be fault of the EU and created a Trade agreement with the US however unfavourable , that would be hard to revoke.
He may well have also built an state that has reversed much of the last decades of Human Rights and Welfare legislation and a division of class that sees the poor and dispossessed exclude from the democratic process in the same way the Republicans are doing in the USA.
Indeed just as Thatcherism emasculated the left in Britain and left a legacy that resulted i Blairism which despite its hype did nothing to reverse Anti-Trade Union legislation and son ditched an "ethical foreign policy " for Neo-liberalism.
Indeed with Corbyn presumably gone Labour could end up with a Blair clone who receives the same backing from the real power in the land he did,
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