Friday, 2 August 2019

Liberal Democrats.(Remain Aliance).win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a Commons working majority of just one.
Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat incumbent Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.
Mr Davies decided to stand again after being unseated by a petition following his conviction for a false expenses claim.
It was the first electoral test for Mr Johnson since becoming prime minister.
Now, with a particularly wafer-thin working majority, he will have to rely heavily on the support of his own MPs and his confidence-and-supply partners the DUP to get any legislation passed in key votes.
However, it was also not a good night for Labour, whose vote share dropped by 12.4% as thaey were beaten into fourth place by the Brexit Party. who share of the vote was much lower than expected.

Elections in the 2010s[edit]

Following the successful recall petition of Christopher Davies, a by-election was held on 1 August 2019.
2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
Liberal DemocratJane Dodds[11]13,82643.5+14.4
ConservativeChristopher Davies*12,40139.0-9.6
Brexit PartyDes Parkinson3,33110.5n/a
LabourTom Davies1,6805.3-12.4
Monster Raving LoonyLady Lily Pink3341.0n/a
UKIPLiz Phillips2420.8-0.6
Registered electors
Liberal Democrat gain from ConservativeSwing

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire[13]
ConservativeChristopher Davies20,08148.6+7.5
Liberal DemocratJames Gibson-Watt12,04329.1+0.8
LabourDan Lodge7,33517.7+3.0
Plaid CymruKate Heneghan1,2993.1-1.3
UKIPPeter Gilbert5761.4-6.9
Registered electors56,010
Conservative holdSwing+3.4
Ms Dodds victory was clearly  aided by Plaid Cymru and the Green Party's decision not to stand in vavour of a Remain Aliance.under the Liberal Democrat banner.

General election 2015: Brecon and Radnorshire[14][15]
ConservativeChristopher Davies16,45341.1+4.5
Liberal DemocratRoger Williams11,35128.3−17.8
LabourMatthew Dorrance5,90414.7+4.2
UKIPDarran Thomas[16]3,3388.3+6.1
Plaid CymruFreddy Greaves1,7674.4+1.9
GreenChris Carmichael1,2613.1+2.3
Registered electors54,441
Conservative gain from Liberal DemocratSwing+11.1
Plaid leader Adam Price said the "spirit of co-operation" between the pro-Remain parties had led to Ms Dodds's election, as he called for a second referendum.

"But if the prime minister is intent on a general election, he should know that Plaid Cymru and the other pro-Remain parties are committed to cooperating so that we beat Brexit once and for all," he added.
An Plaid/Lib Dem Electoral Pact would be complex Particularly as the Lib Dems  see Ceredigion as  a Target Seat . However they may consider the popularity of Plaid.s Ben Lake in the constituency with the option of concentrating on nearby  Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.
I am not sure whether a pact in Labour seats would be helpful , so Plaid would start at an advantage. and maybe  the Lib Dema should have  the plum of the4  existing  Conservative Welsh  seats , With Plaid fighting Aberconwy and Carmarthen West and
South Pembrokeshire and Clwyd West

The Liberal Democrats  running four  Montgomeryshire,Vale of GlamorganMonmouth. and Preseli Pembrokeshire

We are looking at an early General Election Preseli Pembrokeshire possibly an Autumn one , so time is short and it may be easier to sort this out on the existing Tory seats..

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