Thursday, 8 August 2019

"Welsh" Labour realise Independence calls may finish them.

Luke 15:10 New International Version (NIV)10 In the same way, I tell you, there is rejoicing in the presence of the angels of God over one sinner who repents.”

Over at Nation Cymru Ifan Morgan Jones, warns against

"Bandwagon jumping politicians threaten the Welsh independence movement’s grassroots appeal".
He writes
 Just over a week ago 8,000 people marched in Caernarfon for Welsh independence, an occurrence that might have seemed unthinkable as recently as the beginning of May.And this week both the Brexit Minister Jeremy Miles and former First Minister Carwyn Jones came to the National Eisteddfod and made what can only be interpreted as deliberately positive noises about independence.
They did not go as far as endorsing the idea of independence – their own Labour MPs would be in revolt if that happened – but they gave the national movement a nod and a wink.
If Brexit does go ahead “any sensible government would have to reassess Wales’s place in a changed UK,” said Jeremy Miles.
Carwyn Jones said on Tuesday that he did not oppose independence “on principle” but rather for “practical reasons”. He also said that Wales “isn’t too poor to be independent – no.”
It is clear what is going on here – Welsh Labour see the way the wind is blowing and are re-aligning their own electoral sails accordingly.
Their response to any suggestion of Plaid Cymru’s possible electoral success has always been to roll their tanks further up Plaid Cymru’s lawn.
He's right of course and we need to be wary of Labour Politicians , whose  attitude to devolution let alone Independence will depend on whether their man or woman is in No 10 Downing ST. or not.

Anyway Carwyn Jones has not so much jumped on the Bandwagon , so much as admit there's a great deal of noise coming from it

The BBC reports that.
The former first minister said he believes that while the country would find it more difficult to borrow money, "many other countries are in the red".
During a National Eisteddfod discussion, he said there was no future in "England and Wales" if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK.
Lecturer Jeff Williams-Jones said campaigners needed to make the economic case "on evidence, not emotion".
While Mr Jones has previously said the "shambles in Westminster" is driving curiosity in independence, he said his personal view was Wales is best served as part of the UK.
However, marches calling for Wales to break free have recently taken place in Cardiff and Caernarfon.
"Many other countries are in the red... that is not unusual," Mr Jones said.
"We are not too poor to be independent, no."
But Mr Jones warned if the country did go it alone, the economy would not be "transformed overnight", pointing to the years of economic troubles Ireland suffered before thriving.
He emphasised he was not a supporter of independence and would prefer a more equal partnership between the UK nations.
ut Mr Jones said the consequences needed to be discussed because a "chaotic Brexit" could lead to the break-up of the UK.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to leave the EU on the 31 October deadline, whether there is a deal in place or not.
If this happens, Sinn Fein wants a poll on Northern Ireland leaving the union to join the Republic of Ireland.
In Scotland, the SNP intends to hold a second referendum on independence.
There would be "no future for an England and Wales" if Northern Ireland and Scotland leave, Mr Jones said, and if England decided to go it alone "we may end up independent by default".
"That is why we need to be ready to think about these things, and be ready to discuss the matter now," he added.
His objection to independence was not "in principle" but for "practical" reasons, adding: "If I was living in an independent Wales it wouldn't make me more of a Welshman than I am now."
Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts challenged his view, pointing to the Baltic states - Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia - as examples of countries that experienced rapid growth in the 1990s following the break-up of the Soviet Union.
And Sion Jobbins, chairman of campaign group Yes Cymru, said there would come a time when Welsh Labour would need to choose
between loyalty to their party and independence.

Labour may well be looking at Scotland , where  they have ben pushed of their pedestal by the SNP aand are in third  place .

Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election

SNPLabConLib DemGreenUKIPChange UKBrexit PartyOtherLead
Panelbase/The Sunday Times18–20 Jun 20191,02442%16%20%11%3%<1 font=""><1 font="">7%<1 font="">22%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times14–17 May 20191,02141%18%20%8%3%1%1%7%<1 font="">21%
YouGov/The Times24–26 Apr 20191,02946%16%22%7%3%1%4%0%24%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times18–24 Apr 20191,01840%20%22%6%3%1%2%5%<1 font="">18%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland28 Feb–6 Mar 20191,00241%19%27%8%3%2%<1 font="">14%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1–4 Mar 20191,01143%22%24%9%2%19%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times30 Nov–5 Dec 20181,02841%23%25%6%3%1%<1 font="">16%
Panelbase/Constitutional Commission2–7 Nov 20181,05039%24%27%6%3%1%<1 font="">12%
Survation/Daily Record18–21 Oct 20181,01738%25%26%9%1%0%12%
Survation/SNP3–5 Oct 20181,01344%23%24%8%1%20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times28 Sep–4 Oct 20181,02441%21%26%6%3%2%<1 font="">15%
Survation/The Sunday Post28 Sep–2 Oct 20181,03643%23%24%9%2%19%

Labour in Wales know that they can lose out and seem many of its voters switch to Plaid and the issue of Independence.

what they must surely be pondering  is whether they can stop or even reverse the tide  by indicating they could support  some kind of Independence  or hark back to 1979 and the Kinnock approach and oppose it.

The problem is that the Independence movement grows and Labour are left behind as they have been in Scotland.

They probably thought that they had tears of Grace , but as the grassroots support for Welsh Independence grows , it is not impossible that on the same day voters in Scotland go  to the polls for their second independence referendum, voters in Wales may be also voting to leave the union.

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