Thursday, 16 April 2015

Latest Poll gives Plaid hope for further momentum


Roger Scully  over at Elections in Wales as produced the latest Welsh Opinion Polls  and only Plaid have made ay significant change

Labour: 40% (no change)

Conservatives:
26% (-1)

UKIP: 13% (no change)

Plaid Cymru
: 12% (+3)

Liberal Democrats:
6% (no change)

Greens: 4% (-1)

Others: 0% (-1)

This on a uniform swing  according to Professor Scully will not see a political earthquake as we are seeing in Scotland

Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change);
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (losing both Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor, and holding on only to Ceredigion).
Even if we were to follow Professor Scully Blog: Ratio Swing seat projections of the numbers from this poll:


 Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (keeping the three seats they currently hold, and gaining Ceredigion);Liberal Democrats: 0 seats (losing Cardiff Central to Labour, Brecon & Radnor to the Conservatives, and Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru).
For some reason some Plaid supporters have accused Professor Scull f trying to manipulate the poling  by producing this before the Tonight's (April 16th) Poll. especially as the first pol he published showing Plaid on 9% was held before the first  leaders debate and Leanne receiving a much higher profile in the UK media. 
But if Leanne does well tonight and generate publicity then it quite possible that we could see a further increase in support for Plaid swing them rise by 3% and leapfrogging UKIp to third  place.
There seems to be a particular vibe among Plaid Members in Llanelli and Cerdigion in particular and even a few percentage points rise after tonight might just see Plaid having it best result in percentage votes and seats.






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