Boundary Changes What Wales might look like.

The organisation Democratic Audit has Looked at the potential outcome of the ConLib government plans to cut he number of constituencies in the UK. This is not definitive analysis and the actual  result from the boundary commission due to b published in the Autumn nay be quite  different but they have used the same criteria.

The first interesting thing that emerges is that the biggest losers may well be the Liberal Democrats.

It is ironic that if the AV referendum had succeeded and if the Libdems were to poll anything like the 20%+ vote they have come to expect in a General Election then they would have probably been by far the biggest gainers in Westminster seats. However the plan to cut the number of MP's was coupled with the AV legislation but was not subject to the referendum. So even if the Libdems do not  suffer the same meltdown in votes that they had in the Scottish and Welsh elections they are likely to regret allowing the Conservatives to place this alongside the AV bill.

The analysis by Democratic Audit  also using the Boundary Commissions attempts to give us a possible likelihood of what the new Welsh constituencies may look like.

This of course is based on what would the result have been if the seats had been fought on these boundaries and the same %vote for each party at the  2010 election but it does give us some indication of what the future Welsh Electoral Map for Westminster may look like.

BlogMenai has added a useful critique of the analysis which is well worth looking at (you can use goggle translate if your Welsh like mine is shamefully not up to reading it directly).

As I have said this is largely an hypothesis and it may well see a big difference when we vote again in 2014. Or  we may be voting earlier as the Libdem wake up to the fact that even if they overcome the current toxic effect of being coalition with the Tories and they recovered the percentage of the vote they received in 2010 they are still likely to lose nearly a quarter of their current seats. Indeed in the next few months this may well be the biggest strain on the coalition. However I don't think the public will regard a stand purely on the Libdems self interest to kindly

Mr Clegg's weasel words.

So the proposal to hold a referendum on the introduction of the Alternative Vote (AV) for UK elections has passed it’s first hurdle with an easy win for the coalition government on last night vote (6t Sept).
To read some Lib-Dem blogs you would have thought this was always their policy those at Aberavon and Neath Liberal Democrats claimed.

“Our two Parties have different views on the future of our voting system. But we both recognise that there are genuine concerns about the current system. And we emphatically agree that the decision is not, in any case, for government alone.
It should be taken by the people themselves That is why both our parties support putting this question to a referendum next May, just one example of the power shift we are determined to deliver. Fixing parliament also means tackling the unfairness in the geography of MPs' constituencies by making sure votes count equally wherever they are cast. The coalition also proposes to cut the number of MPs to 600”.

If as they claim that it should be taken to the people themselves , then why not have an open referendum and give those who support STV (including presumably themselves) the chance to vote for this option.

As for the “Fixing” parliaments with regards re forming constituency boundaries. Then they got that right, because its nothing but a move to give the Tories the opportunity  to gerrymander the current set up.

I don’t often agree with Labour MP Kevin Brennan but when he asked .

“whether plans for constituency changes were included in the same bill as the price of Conservative support for the referendum. Mr Clegg replied that, as they were "two issues that relate to how we are elected to this House", it had been "natural to bring them together".

Mr Clegg defended plans to reduce the number of MPs and to redraw constituency boundaries so they each represented about 76,000 people each, saying it was "patently obvious that individuals' votes should carry the same weight".

But you don’t have to be a genius to work out that the Tories would clearly love to see AV fail at the referendum but see the cut in the number  seats pass (which we will not be allowed to vote for) guaranteeing them a larger majority if the percentage votes for the Parties at the next General Election remained roughly the same.

How can you have two bills combined when only one goes to a  referendum?

In their efforts to get their backsides on the seats of ministerial cars Nick Clegg and the Lib-Dems have sold parliamentary reform down the river and given their Tory bosses exactly the electoral advantage they are seeking.
 Because the bboundary changes are guaranteed to pass but the AV referendum may well fail.

No amount of weasel words either from Lib-Dems at Westminster , or Aberavon and Neath will hide this.