Tuesday, 20 November 2018

Desperate May plays the Immigration card again.

The extent to which the Brexit vote was won due to anti-immigration and indeed racism has not been fully investigated or rather reported 

In a report in the Independent last year it is claimed that findings from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey published on Wednesday show Brexit was the result of widespread concern over the numbers of people coming to the UK – millions of whom have done so under the EU’s freedom of movement rules in recent years. 

Nearly three-quarters (73 per cent) of those who are worried about immigration voted Leave, compared with 36 per cent of those who did not identify this as a concern, the research found, showing the discrepancy in views about immigration between Remain and Leave voters.

But I wonder whether it was not so much about White Europeans coming here  as opposed to elsewhere.Maybe those who conducted (and still do) are afraid of what the result will show.

Who can forget the clearly racist poster  promoted by Nigel Farage which in a Referendum on membership of the EU showed lines of Asians.

Farage knew his audience and that highlighting immigration from the Commonwealth (apart from the likes of Canada , Australia and New Zealand) was the way to exploit peoples fears over Immigration and give racists an excuse  when challenged.

But as Mrs May proved this week, the anti-immigration card is one that will constantly played if there is any chance LEAVE looks like losing support.  Though she seems to have as Munguin points out below tried to shift immigration fears back to Europe if it ever were really the main issue. implying that Eyropeans would seek to jump the queue .

The BBC reports that 
""Theresa May has renewed her efforts to sell her draft Brexit withdrawal agreement - arguing it will stop EU migrants "jumping the queue".
She said migration would become skills-based, with Europeans no longer prioritised over "engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi".
The PM also insisted to business leaders at the CBI that the withdrawal deal had been "agreed in full".
 Mrs May told the CBI's annual conference in London that her plan would provide a fair immigration system that would help young people in the UK get jobs and training.
"It will no longer be the case that EU nationals, regardless of the skills or experience they have to offer, can jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi."Instead of a system based on where a person is from, we will have one that is built around the talents and skills a person has to offer."
Nicola Sturgeon said the PM's remarks on EU free movement were "offensive".
The Scottish First Minister said for the prime minister to use such language to describe reciprocal arrangements entered into freely by the UK - allowing EU nationals to live and work in the UK and vice-versa - was "really disgraceful"."
Where were Labour on this? Indeed the best response to Mrs May seems to be coming not from the Labour Party but from Blogs like MUNGUIN'S NEW REPUBLIC  Scottish Blog (to my mind the best ) which mixes suport for Independence with a progressive argument but also humour.

Munguin's owner writes  that
"May sank to a new level today, even for her, and that is quite an achievement.
She was speaking to business, trying to sell her half-baked Brexit plan and, with very little to sell, and certainly nothing concrete, she remembered that we held all the cards and she played the Xenophobic joker.
In future, she said, EU citizens would not be able to “jump the queue” to get into the UK.
She seems to be unaware that no EU citizen jumped any queues to work anywhere in the EU, or indeed in the EEA. There were no queues. No more of a queue than there would be if I, in Dundee, decided to apply for a job in Stornaway, Riga, Vaduz or Bognor.

"It will no longer be the case that EU nationals... can jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi."
Theresa May says "once we've left the EU, we will be fully in control of who comes here."
She managed to imply that these sneaky Europeans had been taking the best of the jobs in place of people from her Empire. Canadians or Kenyans had to get in line behind people from the European Union.
Of course, if she knew anything about recruitment at a high level, she would know that that’s not how it works. But then, had she known anything about recruitment she might, as Home Secretary, not have put all the barriers in the way of employing scientists from Sydney, doctors from Durban or techies from Tiruchirappalli.
Mrs May, of course, has several hurdles to cross before her plan becomes “the” plan. The EU is meeting this weekend to look at it and may or may not approve it without change; she has to deal with the rebels in her own cabinet, Leadsome, Gove, Fox, Mordant and Grayling, who are determined that they could have negotiated another, better deal and are writing one as we speak despite being told not to be the PM and by Europe… Who knows what will happen if they are ignored. And then she has to sell it to the DUP, the Commons and the Lords. On top of that, it has to pass the parliaments and in some cases devolved parliaments of the 27 member states of the EU.
I’m not holding my breath.

Why anybody from Europe would want to move to an UK that will be facing economic disaster after Brexit?  Is  an intresting question

 But you don't have to be a cynical bastard like myself to think that Mrs May's, true audience was her own MPs who are wavering and using the I word to get herself out of a hole.

Sunday, 18 November 2018

DUP could ruin NI and the "Mainland" also the Republic of Ireland .

It has some how been overlooked that Northern Ireland voted to REMAIN  in the EU Referendum.


But you could be forgiven for forgetting this as the Media concentrate on the DUP who promote a Hard Brexit even though they do not speak for the Majority

Indeed as the result there became clear In Northern Ireland, First Minister Arlene Foster said that as a leader of unionism, she felt it was the right decision.
"We are now entering a new era of an even stronger United Kingdom," she said.
"We campaigned to leave the EU. This is the democratic decision of the people of the UK. This is a UK-wide decision and every vote is equal within the UK. I am proud of the fact that this decision was taken by the people."
The first minister said she would be working for "the best possible exit negotiation"

Since then it often appears that she is the only politician from the Six Counties who has any say.
Since then as the issue of the British Boarder on the Island of Ireland has come to prove a major obstacle in the Brexit negotiations , she has opposed a separate solution to the Boarder problem and insist the Six Counties have exactly the same deal (or no deal as seems likely) and an eventual hard boarder.
What ever  you think of Mrs May's latest Brexit proposal , it  would appear that she is prepared to vote against it on the grounds that the electorate there are not being treated the same as that of the "Mainland" (Ireland is also a Mainland mind)  even if  such an agreement benefits the people Ms Foster represents.

In that she resembles someone on the Titanic who refuses palace on the lifeboat, not out of honour or bravery , but because its full of third class passengers.

However Political Betting may be right, when they say....

The assumption that the DUP will automatically oppose TMay’s Brexit deal might not be the case as pressure is building up amongst the Province’s farmers many of whom support the party.The Observer is reporting that the powerful Northern Ireland Farmer’s Union has told Arlene Foster’s party that its 10 Westminster MPs should vote for the deal. The report goes on:
“The DUP has threatened to pull the plug on May and vote against the withdrawal agreement on the grounds it would create a “vassal state” and break up the UK.But the UFU chief executive, Wesley Aston, told BBC Radio Ulster: “We want to make sure we avoid a no-deal situation. No deal for Northern Ireland agri-food and farming in particular would be absolutely disastrous and we have made that patently clear over this last while.”His comments follow those from the UFU’s Ivor Ferguson that the “sheep industry would be finished” if there was no deal.”
This basically totally undermines the DUP rhetoric and will make it much harder for it to pursue their stated course.My guess is that we’ll see a lot of pressure like this from all sorts of bodies throughout the UK if the threat of a no deal gathers real momentum.

This may be a bit of wishful thinking however the DUP have a record of  being  so prejudiced and so committed to the "Union" that they perceive , that they  opposed the Good Friday Agreement and are prepared to take the whole of the Ireland down with them.

It is a scandal that a party of 10 MPs who are described as embracing Right Wing populist eurosceptic Social conservatism are in such a position of power that they can ruin the economy not only of the Six Counties but the British Mainland but also the Republic of Ireland .

How many Tories who are not in love with Ress-Mogg or Johnson are prepared to put up with it.

Saturday, 17 November 2018

Don't make me laugh.

Two reports on BBC Wales, which can be taken with a pinch of salt.

The first is that..
...One of Theresa May's closest colleagues has denied claims that the Welsh Government was ignored in the drafting of her Brexit deal.
Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington was visiting Cardiff on Friday to discuss the proposals with Welsh politicians and business leaders.
He said ministers "always listen" to the devolved governments.
The Welsh and Scottish first ministers have claimed there had been no "meaningful engagement" with them.
Mr Lidington admitted there were "acknowledged political differences" between the governments over the preferred outcome of negotiations with the EU.
But he said the draft withdrawal deal included measures on matters such as the environment and workers' rights he thought Welsh politicians from all parties "would be able to support".
Mr Lidington was visiting Edinburgh and Cardiff as leading Brexiteers in the cabinet rallied behind Theresa May following the resignation on Thursday of two of their colleagues.
He said the clear message coming from Welsh businesses was that they wanted "clarity and certainty" from a deal to leave the EU.
MPs from all parties threatening to vote against the deal "need to be thinking very calmly about the national interest", he added.The minister said the deal was "true" to the referendum result while promoting a "good trading relationship" with the EU for the future.
Well it may well listen but I have always have the impression that it is the same manner in which a schools headmaster listens to the pupils on a school council .

Williams from year  10 may be on that council but she may argue for all her might she's not going to change the head's view if he has no intention on changing anything.

The second is that  Welsh Third Rate Minister Carwyn Jones has said Wales' Whitehall department has little influence on the UK government,

BBC Wales reports that,

It comes after Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, who leads the Wales Office, said the EU withdrawal deal was a matter for UK ministers not Mr Jones.
Mr Jones told AMs the effect to international trade and treaties was "huge in devolved areas".
"But I don't think the Wales Office has much influence at all in the way that the UK government operates," he added.
A UK Government source said the Welsh Secretary is a "integral part of government".
Mr Cairns made his comments, on Wednesday, after the Welsh Labour leader said he should have been briefed earlier on the Brexit agreement
Mr Cairns said: "This is a reserved area of policy. There are two governments in Wales.
"I don't tell the Welsh Government what to do on health policy and this is a matter that is a European policy as well as a UK government policy."
Mr Jones responded on Friday at an assembly committee that scrutinises his actions as first minister.
When AMs raised concerns about the Conservative minister's statement, Mr Jones explained that Welsh ministers' relationship with the UK government was "not channelled through the Wales Office".
"I deal directly with the prime minister - I don't deal via the secretary of state for Wales and then go through him to the prime minister," he said.On the Welsh secretary's comments, Mr Jones said: 
"He's not right to say, of course, that it's a reserved matter in practice.
"Yes, of course, international trade and international treaties are a reserved matter but their effect is huge in devolved areas.
"It's never been wise to simply say 'this has nothing to do with you' because it clearly does."
"But I don't think the Wales Office has much influence at all on the way that the UK government operates."And certainly the UK government, I think, finds it easier to deal with us."
A UK Government source said: 
"The First Minister is very much aware that the Office of the Secretary of State for Wales is an integral part of Government and works closely with Whitehall departments, local authorities and his officials to ensure that the UK Government delivers for Wales.
"The scrapping of the Severn tolls, the work to deliver city and growth deals for every part of Wales, and the securing of £550 million from the budget for Wales are a testament to the department which works tirelessly to secure a better future for Wales."
But I doubt this is entirely true after all "whoever pays the piper calls the the tune only last June The Prime Minister urged the Welsh Government to commit to investing in the NHS an extra £1.2bn it is due to receive as a result of NHS spending she's announced for England.Theresa May announced a five year budget that will lead to an increased £20bn a year for the health service in England.The extra cash follows the prime minister's announcement that, in the NHS's 70th year, an extra £20 billion a year by 2023/24 will be invested in health services across the UK.It will see the Welsh Government receive additional Barnett funding worth £1.2 billion over the same period.

Mrs May said

"While it is up to the devolved administrations to spend the money as they see fit, I believe everyone in the UK should benefit from this extra funding for the NHS.
So I urge the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales to use this money to improve the NHS – and to develop their own long-term plans for NHS Scotland and NHS Wales.
This way the vision I have set out today can benefit the whole United Kingdom".

Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns, echoed the Prime Minister.

He called on the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, Vaughan Gething, to secure agreement from the First Minister of Wales to ensure the windfall is directed to improving the NHS in Wales.

"As a result of the Prime Minister's significant new investment in the NHS, it means a £1.2 billion funding boost from the UK Government.ln the NHS's 70th year, I strongly urge the Welsh Government to spend this extra money strategically to deliver better health outcomes in Wales.This money can be used to address concerns raised on performance, as on a number of measures Wales is falling behind".

Seems like the Westminster Government are trying to tell Wales how to spend their pocket money.

Indeed you would be forgiven in thinking  that there is a certain amount of menace in that Westminster is saying

"If you don't spend it wisely i.e how we suggest you wil get less next time".

The Truth is Welsh Government's influence on Westminster is Zero but you can't argue  that the revers is true.

Friday, 16 November 2018

Are the Liberal Democrats damaging the "People's Vote" campaign.

In the midst of the whole Brexit Farrago, only one Party can hold  its head up high. It is of course the Liberal Democrats.

As they recently said in a Press release.

Nah its bollocks as Left Foot Forward report 

The press release (here) immediately sparked anger from, among others, Green Party activists – for the obvious reason that the Greens have backed a so-called ‘People’s Vote’ on the Brexit deal from early on.
The Greens’ 2017 manifesto stated:
“We will campaign for your right to vote on the final terms of the Brexit deal, including an option to stay in the EU.”
They won’t be the only ones rankled. As the Young Greens’ Nate Higgins noted on Twitter, the following other parties back a de facto second referendum:
  • Scottish Green Party
  • Green Party in Northern Ireland
  • Plaid Cymru
  • Scottish National Party
  • Women’s Equality Party
  • Social Democratic & Labour Party
  • Alliance

It must be frustrating that they are still struggling to reach  double figures in the polls and despite indication that the majority would now vote Remain  the poor Lib Dems are still struggling to get to double figures.

Polling organisation/clientAreaSample sizeConLabLib DemSNPPlaidUKIPGreenOthersLead
8–12 NovKantar PublicGB1,14740%39%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%
4–5 NovYouGov/TimesGB1,63741%37%8%4%4%4%1%4%
20 Oct–2 NovSurvationUK20,09039%40%8%3%N/A3%2%3%1%
29–30 OctYouGov/TimesGB1,64841%39%7%4%5%2%0%2%
26–28 OctICMGB2,04840%38%9%3%1%5%3%0%2%
24–26 OctDeltapoll/MirrorGB1,01743%40%6%4%0%5%2%0%3%
22–23 OctYouGov/TimesGB1,80241%36%8%6%4%4%0%5%
19–22 OctIpsos MORIGB1,04439%37%10%4%1%5%5%0%2%
14–15 OctYouGov/TimesGB1,64941%36%9%4%4%3%1%5%
11–15 OctKantar PublicGB1,12841%36%10%4%1%3%4%1%5%
11–12 OctOpinium/The ObserverGB2,01041%37%8%4%1%6%3%1%4%
10 OctSurvationUK1,00940%39%7%4%N/A6%N/A5%1%
8–9 OctYouGov/TimesGB1,64741%37%9%5%4%3%1%4%
3–5 OctOpinium/The ObserverGB2,00739%39%7%3%1%6%3%1%Tie
LFF make a valid point
"But a serious point, if you’ll allow: if you wanted to actively undermine a People’s Vote, one way would be to suggest it has less widespread party support than it actually does.
The party could be forgiven for spinning the truth. But this seems to go past the point of spin – and won’t do any good for Lib Dem attempts to shake of their ‘fibbing’ image, after the tuition fee u-turn during the coalition years.
More than that though, it comes at a time when even the PM is saying ‘no Brexit‘ is on the table. Calls for a ‘People’s Vote’ are likely to grow in all parties over the next few days, as May’s deal crumbles beneath Cabinet resignations…"
What the Liberal Democrats should be doing is helping to unite those Parties calling for a People Vote and showing how this may be brought about. They may even win respect for that,

 They have form on their fibs though

At the last elections the Liberal Democrats in Mark Williams, the Lib Dems’ candidate for Ceredigion , where the main rival party is Plaid, has apologised for Facebook advertisements and leaflets that claimed Plaid Cymru were eeking a “Hard Brexit”.

Williams lost to Plaid's Ben Lake eventually lost and it may well be that this lie contributed to it as voters got fed up with the Lib Dems Fibs.

But this latter development is even worse as it undermines the whole "People Votes" campaign and one thing we don't need is that it is seen by voters as a cynical electoral ploy for one Party's electoral advantage.

Thursday, 15 November 2018

Governor Generals speak for Wales and Scotland on Brexit.

Why do we have a Welsh and Scottish First Minister  when the views of both countries are apparently voiced by Tories in the Westminster Government ?

Neither Carwyn Jones  or Nicola Sturgeon were briefed the Welsh Government on the Brexit deal before cabinet talks opened,  although apparently Chief Minister  of Gibraltar Fabian Picardo was.

Welsh Third Rate Minster Jones said there was a "method" that would have allowed the documents to have been shared privately.
But Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns said it was a "reserved area of policy" for the UK government to deal with.
The prime minister's cabinet agreed to the draft withdrawal agreement after hours of talks on Wednesday.
After this had concluded, Theresa May spoke to Carwyn Jones over the phone.

"I can understand why she would want to share the agreement with cabinet ministers first," Mr Jones had earlier said.
"But my assumption was that was being done over the course of last night and this morning.
 "Once that process had been completed she could have made sure those documents came to use before the formal cabinet meetings, as I understand it they'd all seen the document anyway."There is a method for sharing these documents privately, but that's not been used, it means now here I am, sitting here, same for the first minister of Scotland and everybody else, trying to offer comments on something we haven't seen."

Spoken to @theresa_may this evening who outlined broad terms of deal. We now need to consider detail of what’s proposed. Consistently made clear the need for full & unfettered access to single mkt & participation in a customs union to protect economy & Welsh jobs

96 people are talking about this

But a source in the UK Government said: "Wales is represented by the secretary of state and he will scrutinise and make the case in cabinet."
Welsh Secretary Alun  Cairns echoed the view, adding: showing that in his view the opinion of the opinion of the leader of the Welsh Government in Cardiff bay 

"This is a reserved area of policy.
"There are two governments in Wales. I don't tell the Welsh Government what to do on health policy and this is a matter that is a European policy as well as a UK government policy."
He said Welsh politicians could run to be an MP or a member of the House of Lords to have a role, adding:
 "If Carwyn Jones the first minister wants to do that then of course he is more than welcome to run."
The sort of words we could expect from a Governor General.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has claimed that the draft Brexit agreement between the UK and EU would be bad for Scotland as her party pledged to oppose the deal.
Scotland's first minister said the proposals would take Scotland out of the single market while Northern Ireland in effect stays in.
This would have a "devastating" impact on jobs and investment in Scotland, she insisted.

But Ms Sturgeon said it was obvious that the prime minister could "barely unite her cabinet on this deal" and that she would struggle to get a majority for it in the House of Commons.
"In these circumstances it is more important than ever that we are not faced with a false choice between a bad deal and no deal," she said.
"No one should be effectively blackmailed into a choice between the frying pan or the fire.
"This proposed deal would be a bad one for Scotland, taking us out of a single market eight times the size of the UK market alone and posing a huge threat to jobs, investment and living standards.
"If this deal is indeed rejected by Parliament then the UK government must return to the negotiating table to secure a better one.
"Our bottom line - short of continued EU membership - is continued, permanent membership of the single market and customs union."
Ms Sturgeon later tweeted that she had received a phone call from Mrs May and had pointed out that the draft document makes no mention of Scotland.
 Compare this between and that of our Third Rate Welsh First Minister , who seems to have simply rolled over after being humiliated by, the Tory Welsh Secretary.

It may be that the Scottish Tories are also going to resist their London master's 
Sources told the BBC last month that Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who is currently on maternity leave after the birth of her son, and Scottish Secretary David Mundell could quit their roles if a Brexit deal introduced different arrangements for Northern Ireland.
Mr Mundell, who denied at the time that he had threatened to quit, said after Wednesday's cabinet meeting he was content to move on to the next stage on the basis that "arrangements for Northern Ireland will not undermine the economic or constitutional integrity of the UK".
Before Wednesday's cabinet meeting started, a letter from Mr Mundell and other Scottish Tory MPs was hand delivered to No 10 warning against any backsliding on fishing rights for the UK after Brexit.
Wales unlike Scotland may have voted for Brexit , but the idea that as a Nation we  should be ignored throughout the whole negotiations is deplorable.
It shows contempt for Welsh Democracy especially as it seems the majority of Welsh voters now strongly back Remain.
But in the corridors of Westminster it seems we have less than that of Gibraltar.