Sunday, 19 April 2015

Leaflet Watch 3, Tories fighting wrong election.

The second leaflet delivered by Post  has arrived and this time its from the Tories

The first thing to not  that unlike the Labour  Posted Leaflet the Tory one is fully bilingual.. It come to something when the former  shame the biggest party in Wales by using Cymraeg

The second is that there no pictures of David Cameron or any prominent Welsh Tory and hardly any mention of the Conservatives, Have Ponty Tories been advised not to mention their party leader can they have been advised by :Lyntom Crosby  like the Aberconwy candidate r) 

 sell yourself not the party". 

The third is that the photos are bloody awful and unflattering .Though I am not very photogenic they could have made Ms Mason llook a little les scary.

But it is the content  seems to point out a confusion with Welsh Tories in what Election they are fighting

The main thrust of Ms Masonn's leaflet deal with Education and the NHS to powers that are devolved .
There is nothing wrong with mentioning both or Labour's running of them but how can a Westminster  \MP, protect the NHS in Wales from drastic budget cuts or Improve Education Standards?

Not a very god leaflet but get points for bilingualism 5/10.

As I stated  this is with less than three weeks to go this is only the second leaflet delivered by post (along with one Labour Newspaper by party members).

With less than three weeks to go many postal ballots will have be delivers and a fair number will have voted before they get any Electoral Communication at all.
Maybe this should be examined.

Living in a Labour stronghold they have got a fair number of the Garden Posters out  before nominations close.

It does come as an advantage to incumbents as presumably  they could carefully store previous posters and recycle them at the start of the next campaign

With postal voting set to increase maybe it should be taken into consideration how the parties postal communications can get to most voters before they vote.


Saturday, 18 April 2015

Labour already planing on Coalition with party whose aim is to break up union.

Despite the fact that both Plaid and the SNP have ruled out entering into a coalition with Labour after May 7th. last Thursday's TV debate saw Ed Miliband claiming  they had "profound differences" and said he could not be in coalition with a party leader who wanted to break up the Union.

But is this not hypocrisy? If after GE2015 Labour find itself in Government  then The SDLP whose  platform advocates Irish unification, and the further devolution of powers while Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom will probably ad they did in the Blair -Brown government accept  even informally  (whatever that means) the Labour Whip and sit on the Government benches.

Historically, there has been strong support for a united Ireland within the left of the Labour Party, and in the 1980s it became official policy to support a united Ireland by consent. The policy of "unity by consent" continued into the 1990s, eventually being replaced by a policy of neutrality in line with the Downing Street Declaration.

So is being neutral over an United Ireland sufficient to effectively form a coalition with the SDLP whose aims is as I say to break up the Union.
Does not seeking Irish Unification mean breaking up the Union .? (OK bad wording but you know what I mean)..

As far as I know the SDLP  have already been pencilled in by Labour Strategist into their calculations.
Unlike the Greens Plaid and the SNP  the SDLP do not seem to have joined the Anti-Austerity agenda by saying that they would not prop up a Labour Government who will carry on with the Tory/LibDen cuts.

With members of the Progressive Bloc possibly likely to exceed 50 MPs  . Why doesn't the SDLP adopt the same tactic and join them rather than be non=entities  on the government benches?

Would not it see them starting to reverse their long term decline Sinn Féin whose absenteeism from the next Parliament is often ignored when it comes to the magical figure of a party or coalition passing the magical figure necessarily to get a overall majority?

Friday, 17 April 2015

Sisters are doing it for the rest of us.

Two Photographs sum up Last night debate

The first saw the fact that three of the participants were as one

But if you think Ed Miliband looks Isolated ?

As far as the debate went I thought Leanne she laid some blow on both Miliband and Farage very well but of course suffers from the fact Nicola Sturgeon wil get the headlines.

Leanne was not calculating on wining over Middle England voters but those in Wales and it s a tactic which may well proof effective

The Important thing for Plaid is that they come out as players in GE2015 and not marginalised as they were in 2010 when not being included in the leaders debate cost them and the SNP votes.

According to the Survation post-debate poll Miliband won
.Miliband - 35% 
Sturgeon - 31%
 Farage - 27%
 Bennett - 5% 
Wood - 2%

But remember Sturgeon,Wood and Benet were  more or less speaking with one voice as the above picture show Sturgeon is by far the most experienced debater.

If you add the three together the you get 38% for those carrying the Anti-Austerity message.

Giving Leanne 7/10 the Wasting Mule somewhat begrudgingly says
She had effective and memorable lines to land on Ed Miliband – challenging him to hold an emergency Budget, give Wales a better funding deal and asking how nuclear weapons could help defeat Islamic extremists. She is not daunted in front of UK-wide audience and this was a publicity coup for her party.
She could have landed her Labour lines with more force; her denunciation of Nigel Farage carried much more bite. But there are electoral calculations here; like Ms Sturgeon, she is in a battle to win over voters on the left – many of whom will have voted Labour most of their lives – and persuade them that her party is their real home

The Problem for Plaid now is with those who did not see the debate and who will be influenced by the Unionist Media coverage .

So far BBC Wales coverage on the "Breakfast" programme where they are allowed to give a few minutes  of Welsh News every hour have failed to mention Leanne Wood and are no different  from  their London Masters.

But it could only been a positive move for Leanne who has received more prominence than any Plaid Leader. We shall see if it  leads to an increase in the pols?

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Latest Poll gives Plaid hope for further momentum

Roger Scully  over at Elections in Wales as produced the latest Welsh Opinion Polls  and only Plaid have made ay significant change

Labour: 40% (no change)

26% (-1)

UKIP: 13% (no change)

Plaid Cymru
: 12% (+3)

Liberal Democrats:
6% (no change)

Greens: 4% (-1)

Others: 0% (-1)

This on a uniform swing  according to Professor Scully will not see a political earthquake as we are seeing in Scotland

Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change);
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (losing both Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor, and holding on only to Ceredigion).
Even if we were to follow Professor Scully Blog: Ratio Swing seat projections of the numbers from this poll:

 Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (keeping the three seats they currently hold, and gaining Ceredigion);Liberal Democrats: 0 seats (losing Cardiff Central to Labour, Brecon & Radnor to the Conservatives, and Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru).
For some reason some Plaid supporters have accused Professor Scull f trying to manipulate the poling  by producing this before the Tonight's (April 16th) Poll. especially as the first pol he published showing Plaid on 9% was held before the first  leaders debate and Leanne receiving a much higher profile in the UK media. 
But if Leanne does well tonight and generate publicity then it quite possible that we could see a further increase in support for Plaid swing them rise by 3% and leapfrogging UKIp to third  place.
There seems to be a particular vibe among Plaid Members in Llanelli and Cerdigion in particular and even a few percentage points rise after tonight might just see Plaid having it best result in percentage votes and seats.

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Branch Managers have no say in where Labour cuts will fail.

I have often arsed who the leader (Branch Manager)of the Labour Party. Shadow Secretary of State Owen Smith or First t Minister Carwyn Jones

The latter hasn't been very prominent i this campaign and must be cursing that Leanne Wood has been attracting so much publicity ,. To the extent that she was "taken of " on Dead Ringers on BBC Four (Though  all they did was use  a Cod Welsh Accent).

But maybe Carwyn and Owen would be wise to keep their heads down or the reality of their position may become clear

There is supposed to be no problem who is in charge of Labour in Scotland its Jim Murphy but it became clear of his real status when  n a TV debate last Tuesday the former Scottish Secretary promised that Labour would not need to make “further cuts to achieve our spending rules” in the next parliament.

He claimed projections by the Institute of Fiscal Studies meant that, as well as bringing spending reductions to a halt, there would be scope to increase spending on government departments by £9.2billon by 202

However Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls contradicted Mr Murphy’s claim that no spending cuts would be needed after 2016.

In a further blow, Shadow Business Secretary Chukka Umunna appeared to tell Mr Murphy to know his place when asked about the issue in a TV interview. 

ut speaking on BBC’s Daily Politics, Mr Umunna said:

 “The leader of the Scottish Labour party will not be in charge of the UK budget. The leader of the country, the next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, will be in charge of the UK budget.”

Some may think fair enough  but it does mean that Labour should not be making promises in Scotland and Wales  that  are more appealing to voter there and here but is not the polciy of their London Masters.

There is no clear red water running between London and Cardiff or Edinburgh '

We can only speculate how much consolation  there was on the 117 words on Wales or the two paragraphs om Scotland  whether the  Branch Managers were consulted .

So remember when reading the Labour leaflets promising to fight or reverse the Con/LibDem cuts no such thing will happen '

They are in fact committed t making further cuts and Neither Jim Murphy i Scotland or Alas Smith and Jones in Wales will have any say in on whose neck it will fall on.

Tuesday, 14 April 2015

More Divo Dipyn Bach from Labour.

Labour has launched its election manifesto with a promise to put the National Assembly on the same constitutional footing as the Scottish Parliament. Something that was already leaked on Sunday maybe in attempt to influence any polling.

The 2015 manifesto, launched by Ed Miliband this morning, pledges that the Assembly will be able to make laws in any area not specifically “reserved” by Westminster.

It states:

“Labour will put Welsh devolution on the same statutory basis as Scottish devolution, with a clear principle that powers are devolved unless specifically reserved, and that a Welsh legislature is a permanent feature of our constitutional arrangements.

This is welcome as an aspiration .We do not want another Tory government  unilaterally abolishing the Assembly as Margaret Thatcher did to the GLC in the eighties. Though it is rather meaningless as  the power to Abolish the Assembly will still remain with UK government it just makes it a little bit more difficult.

However it must not mean"thus far and no further" and it may not mean that the Assembly cannot be suspended. in the manner of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

We are also entitled to ask that if Wales can have same statutory basis as Scottish why can't it have the same powers?

Why devolve policing  but no criminal justice and  as Welsh Not British   (and read Stuart's coverage of this after,)  is points out .

Now we're getting to the crux of the matter, the promises of jam tomorrow. And the one that stands out for me is the promise of Wales having control over its power. The reason it stands out is because back in 2011 all but one Labour MPin Wales voted against devolving energy to Wales. And that's not all they have voted against. During the last parliament the Labour MPs in Wales have voted against devolving Air Passenger Duty, voted against devolving full control over Welsh water and voted against devolving The Crown Estates (part of the energy bill).

At the rate we are going a 16 year old voting for the first time in 2016 (if the Bill is passed) will still not see Wales  receive  parity with Scotland when they are my age . assuming Scotland is still in the Union that is.

But the answer lies with us as long as we continue to vote Labour we will be treated with contempt treated like voting fodder and forgotten or betrayed after the election.

Its time we rejected Devo Dipyn Bach. and even Devo Max and pushed for Independence and nothing less.

Its time we took our nations future in our own hands,

Monday, 13 April 2015

Prescott Uses Lies ,Smears Plagiarism and Sexism Against Sturgeon.

During his time as Tony Blair's deputy John Prescott  was some times compared to Boxer in the Animal farm  the A loyal, kind, dedicated, hard working, and respectable cart-horse, although quite naive and gullible
Whilst in reality he was as much an advocate for Blair's New Labour  as any member of that government.

But he's often wheeled out in order  to keep up Labour's working class credential.

Recently he's been called up by the Daily Mirror in order to speak to the working Class in Scotland who are drifting on as to the SNP.

He starts of 
I have been in some scrapes in my political life.
Being shouted at on Liverpool docks as a young union official, turning round a crowd of striking miners who felt betrayed by Kinnock – and of course that incident with an egg in Rhyl.But nothing compared to the ­Scottish Referendum last year.The hatred shown by nationalists towards anyone who questioned ­independence was ugly and brutal.I remember having SNP supporters scream “traitor” into my face, their spittle like venom.
Why should Nation lists refer to an Englishman as Traitor could it not have ben Left Wingers remembering his role in "New Labour ?

He goes on

But the mask has slipped with the Scottish Office memo of a conversation betweenSturgeon and a French diplomat in which she reportedly claimed she’d prefer Cameron to stay as Prime Minister.
She may have denied this, along with the Frenchman. But he’s a diplomat so he’s obviously being diplomatic.

Er I believe it was  a Frenchwoman who Prescott is calling a liar  . But the whole incident has been denied by everyone involved  . Yet Prescott continues with the lies and smears

Imagine his or the Mirrors outrage if such a discredited smear was were used against Labour by the Sun.

Prescott then resorts to the most ridiculous argument
Nicola Sturgeon may wish to be seen as a German Chancellor Angela Merkel figure.
Note "may " but it allows  Prescott  to plagiarise
But Merkel built consensus, not sought confrontation. Merkel sought to reunite her country, not break it apart.I worked with Angela Merkel on the Kyoto Climate Change Treaty.I knew Angela Merkel. Angela Merkel is a friend of mine. Ms Sturgeon, you’re no Mrs Merkel.
It was actually used by Senator Lloyd Bentsen to Republican vice-presidential candidate  who used the put down Senator Dan Quayle. 

Quayle: Three times that I've had this question — and I will try to answer it again for you, as clearly as I can, because the question you're asking is, "What kind of qualifications does Dan Quayle have to be president," "What kind of qualifications do I have," and "What would I do in this kind of a situation?" And what would I do in this situation? [...] I have far more experience than many others that sought the office of vice president of this country. I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency. I will be prepared to deal with the people in the Bush administration, if that unfortunate event would ever occur.
Judy Woodruff: Senator [Bentsen]?
Bentsen: Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.

Bur not only content with smears Prescott reverts to sexism
But there’s one person she is a dead ringer for.Bloody minded, jingoistic and prepared to divide and rule to get her own way. Margaret Thatcher would be proud.
So a strong female politician on the UK stage (as Sturgeon is now) can only be compared to Margaret thatcher  .

A pathetic  tally of lies,smears plagiarism and sexism  from Prescott who has used his "I.m a working class lad,one of you" to exhaustion but in realty supported the True heir of Thatcher Anthony Charles Lynton Blair  i n government for many years betraying the poor and dispossessed of the whole UK . 

Scotland have seen the truth about Prescott's Labour party. When will Wales' eyes be open?