Wednesday, 29 June 2016

We should ;d have more information clearly available on Consituency spending.

The result of the The EU  referendum has unfortunate killed off reporting on the claims  that d that the Conservatives have miscalculated spending during their 2015 general election campaign.
 The Electoral Commission issues clear guidelines on spending. These state that:
There are two types of spending by or on behalf of parties at elections. These are:
Party campaign spending on campaigning to promote the party and its policies generally. For example, national newspaper adverts for the party, or leaflets explaining party policy. It also includes spending on promoting candidates at elections where the party nominates a list of candidates for a region, instead of individual candidates for local areas.
Candidate spending on campaigning to promote a particular candidate or candidates in their local area. For example, leaflets or websites that focus on one or more candidates and their views.
Different rules apply to the two types of spending.
It would still be interesting to see the same information that appears on the Wikipedia coverage of the constituency results of our seats  as they do with Canadian elections



Where  the expenses of the Parties contesting are eventually included in the result

Take the result for Sydney—Victoria i a federal electoral district in Nova ScotiaCanada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1997.


[hide]Canadian federal election, 2011
PartyCandidateVotes%∆%Expenditures
LiberalMark Eyking14,78839.91-9.49$67,454.53
ConservativeCecil Clarke14,02337.85+17.23$77,334.98
New DemocraticKathy MacLeod7,04919.02-5.42$17,238.77
GreenChris Milburn1,1913.21-2.33$0.00
Total valid votes/Expense limit37,051100.0   $80,666.28
Total rejected, unmarked and declined ballots2790.75+0.03
Turnout37,33061.48+4.07
Eligible voters60,719
Liberal holdSwing-13.36
Sources:[6][7]
Its a bit messy as I couldn't fit it all in but scroll across for the expenses for this seat.

It probably takes awhile before the details of the expenditure for the  last Election are displayed whee there was a huge swing to the Liberals

Canadian politics are quite volatile

[hide]Canadian federal election, 2015
PartyCandidateVotes%∆%Expenditures
LiberalMark Eyking29,99573.20+33.29
New DemocraticMonika Dutt5,35113.06–5.97
ConservativeJohn Douglas Chiasson4,36010.64–27.21
GreenAdrianna MacKinnon1,0262.50–0.71
LibertarianWayne James Hiscock2420.59
Total valid votes/Expense limit40,974100.00 $194,502.63
Total rejected ballots2360.57
Turnout41,21068.96
Eligible voters59,761
Liberal holdSwing+19.63
Source: Elections Canada[4][5]
There seems to be over a doubling of the expenses limit for this riding do the figuers for 2015 

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun. Because the election period is set longer than the standard 37-day election period, spending limits are increased in proportion to the length of the period.[73]
Party spending limits and actual spending, 2015 vs 2011
TypeSpending limits20152011[74]
2015[75]2011ConservativeNDPLiberalConservativeNDPLiberal
Amount%Amount%Amount%Amount%Amount%Amount%
Political party$54,475,840[76]$21,025,793$19,519,99593%$20,372,23197%$19,507,74693%
Party candidates$73,611,590[77]$28,244,499$19,655,13670%$7,117,96225%$14,517,36341%
Total$128,087,430$49,270,292$39,175,13180%$27,490,19356%$34,025,10969%
Candidates spending > 75% of limit1734491
Candidates spending > 50% of limit22870169

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates[edit]


So it will be interesting  o see how much difference this made in each constituency. The Information is available but not so accessible.

It would be certainly helpful if Wikipedia provided us with the same information on a consistency basis here.


Tuesday, 28 June 2016

Tories want to run Welsh response to Brexit. negotiations.

Former Welsh Secretary David Jones – who led the Vote Leave campaign in Wales – has called on First Minister Carwyn Jones to establish a committee of Assembly Members to “drive forward” Wales’ response to the referendum result.
Clearly  this is a suggestion that should be taken seriously 
However the Clwyd West MP said it would need to be chaired by a prominent Leave-supporting AM seems to be suggesting that  this committee  should simply rubber stamp whatever emerges from Westminster.
According to the Wasting Mule 
Mr Jones claimed Mr Jones (He means Carwyn) and leader of the Opposition Leanne Wood were “out of step with the communities they represent” on the issue.
How much out of step they are as the full extent  of the Leave vote om Jobs and the Economy in Wales emerges is a nute point'

He said:
 “Britain’s vote to leave the EU presents us with a huge opportunity to carve out a prosperous future as an independent nation, but it is not without its challenges and Welsh politicians must ensure that our voice is heard in the negotiations which must now take place with EU leaders... That’s why I would urge the First Minister to be gracious in defeat, and establish an advisory committee of AMs to drive forward Wales’ response to the referendum result.
“Rather than seeking to usurp the Welsh Government, such a committee would need to complement their work – but it is clear that its make-up would need to be reflective of public opinion in Wales on this issue.”
It seems  odd to set up up a Committee unless its remit was to make sure Wales did not suffer unduly and the promises made to Wales by the Leave side were kept,

Mr Jones suggested the committee could be chaired by Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies.
He said: “
Andrew RT Davies could potentially be an ideal candidate to chair such a committee, having taking the brave step of backing the campaign to leave the EU, and I’m sure that he would have the support of other leave campaigners here in Wales – including those in Ukip who also played such an influential role in the campaign


Mind you  the Welsh Government seem to be uncertain what their response will be  

A spokesman said,
We don’t see any merit in this idea. The Welsh Government will work through the consequences of the vote in good faith in the interests of the people of Wales.“The National Assembly for Wales is in the process of seeing up a new, more open and transparent committee structure and the consequences of the Brexit vote will no doubt feature heavily on upcoming agendas.”

Despite Mr Jones (a Devo Sceptic ) claims that he was not seeking to usurp the Welsh Government, . Appointing  a Leave campaigner  may seem to reflect the view of the Welsh Electorate but it seems to me that as the SS Great Britain heads to the rocks . It may not be a good idea to to have someone who claims to represent  Wales on the Bridge    saying its OK what you decide and telling  Captain  Boris  full steam ahead.

Monday, 27 June 2016

No leaders and precious few answers

Readers in Scotland will know where got the inspiration for the title

This time last week it was a close call whether LEAVE or REMAIN would win the Euro Referendum but few would predict a week later the chaos  that has assured.


David Cameron  resignation means that he has passed the hot potato on who is going to be submitting the Article 50 notification that will start the two year negotiations which will see us leave the EU and yet  despite  all of their anti-EU rhetoric, from Gove and Johnson they have yet to step foward about triggering the process that they spent the last month arguing day and night for.

Is almost as if they were counting on a narrow remain win and that the UK could use this as a weapon to get a massive change in our relationship with the EU including argued for a massive discount on our membership fee.



Now they are committed  to leaving and no one in the Tory leadership and lead the UK out

As Richard Tyndal points out at political betting.


How successfully we do so will depend on who becomes the next Prime Minister and the deal they can deliver. The early signs are that Boris Johnson is favourite. Having led the Leave side to victory and seemingly won the backing of Michael Gove he will take some stopping. However, the former Mayor of London does face significant challenges. He now needs to come up with a coherent vision of what Brexit looks like that satisfies Leave voters and wins over Tory MPs. If he doesn’t, Theresa May could yet emerge as an alternative unifying ‘safe pair of hands’. He may even end up challenged from his Right. The odds are in Johnson’s favour but he does have serious questions to answer on free movement and the common market – questions we can only assume he has been carefully considering during his period of silence this weekend.
Meanwhile  Labour MPs at Westminster seem intent on sacking thier captain rather than facing an open goal.

 Jeremy Corbyn's leadership is in crisis after a string of shadow ministers quit Labour's top team, saying they had no confidence in his ability to win a general election.
On Sunday night, shadow leader of the Commons Chris Bryant became the latest senior figure to announce he could no longer work with Mr Corbyn. Mr Bryant said: "We need someone new to lead and unite Labour."
One way they appear to want to unite the party is to take a leaf out of "Welsh" Ukip's book  and elect a new leader of the "Parliamentary Labour Party " as opposed to the current leader who stil seems to have the support of the Parliamentary party and who will be enraged by such a coup.
Ukip also seem to have gone to ground perhaps hoping for a General Election where they can exploit Tory dithering on the Exit strategy  or may be they too did not really want to leave completely?
The LibDems (who are they seem to banking on fighting on a Pro- EU platform at the next election
Plaid's Leanne Wood as indicated she might consider entering a coalition with Labour in the Assembly  something that has angered some of her AMs
Only in Scotland  where even the Guardian admits that the


Is there any sense of a way out of this crisis  that being a second Independence referendum which at the moment which the SNP and its allies will win
To be fair Plaid do not have that option and without a doubt Labour and Plaid will have to find  common ground.
But as the largest party in Wales Labour must surly realise it is time to abandon their Laissez-Faire approach to devolution and realise they have a duty to prevent Wales becoming what Irish Fans taunting ours last week thst Wales was, little more than " a little part of England".

Sunday, 26 June 2016

It's time Wales joined Scotland in abandoning the ship before we hit the rocks.

At the moment I can not  agree with   Plaid Cymru 's Adam Price  who  says a second referendum on EU membership should be held once the precise terms of Brexit have been negotiated.
MR Price , the Shadow Minister for Finance and Economy , said the UK’s departure from the EU would have economic and social implications that lasted generations, and it was 
“the right thing democratically” that people should have a further vote once the exit terms were clear.
Mr Price said: 
“The EU will take a hard position towards the UK on the terms of exit.
“They’re worried about contagion – that if the UK is allowed to depart on generous terms, other EU members might be tempted to follow.
“They are very likely to say that if we want access to the Single European Market we will have to allow free movement of people and pay a substantial fee.
“It’s these two elements of our EU membership that the Leave campaign was constantly complaining about.
“The alternative will be that we don’t have access to the Single Market and spent five to seven years negotiating 15 trade deals with the rest of the world.
“With David Cameron stepping down, there is very likely to be a general election in October. Parties should commit themselves to put the result of exit negotiations to another referendum.
“That seems to me the right thing democratically to do. At this week’s referendum people were voting in the dark, not knowing what would be on offer in terms of a trade deal.
“They deserve to know the exact terms under which we would leave the EU and then to make an informed choice between going or staying.”
It is a solid argument  and we are approaching 3 Million signatures  you can do it here.

EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.
Sign this petition
2,793,989 signatures

 The page also provides us with the amount of signatures from each UK Constituency  Pontypridd fpr example has at this time  (06:47 26/06/16 )2706 and no Welsh constituency has under 1000 signatories 

What we don't know is to what extent those who have signed are Brexiters who woke up on Friday and said "Oh God what have I done",

It may be that as the negotiations drag on and the economic and social implications become clear then it will also become evident that there is a huge shift in public opinion against leaving.

Of course we may have a General Election between then , but such an election will be fought amongst divided parties .

But will a second referendum help?

You would probably need to win with at least two thirds of the vote and Scotland may be gone by then.

We in England and Wales are heading for the Rocks and we have lost complete control of the rudder .

With both the Tories and Labour leaders unable to get full backing from their MP 's there appears no Captain to take control'

If ever there was a time to join Scotland in the lifeboats it is now.

Saturday, 25 June 2016

Waving the Union Flag on Thursday and Y Draig Goch Today,( Welsh Schizophrenia)!



The actual brake down of Welsh Authorities of Welsh Votes in the European Referendum shows a Wales divided 


Local Authority% Remain% Leave% Turnout
Cardiff60.040.069.6
Gwynedd58.141.972.3
Ceredigion54.645.474.4
Vale of Glamorgan50.749.376.1
Monmouthshire50.449.677.7
Ynys Môn49.150.973.8
Swansea48.551.569.5
Carmarthenshire46.353.774.0
Powys46.353.777.0
Rhondda Cynon Taf46.353.767.4
Conwy46.054.071.7
Denbighshire46.054.069.1
Bridgend45.454.671.1
Newport44.056.070.2
Flintshire43.654.674.8
Merthyr Tydfil43.656.467.4
Neath Port Talbot43.256.871.5
Pembrokeshire42.957.174.4
Caerphilly42.457.670.7
Wrexham41.059.071.5
Torfaen40.259.869.8
Blaenau Gwent38.062.068.1


It is interesting  that every  every single one of the valleys Labiour  Strongholds s voted for Leave – many of them in very large numbers..

Oh and I don't think we can blame the support for far right ideas on English people who live here, It's clearly the "Bloody Welsh" who  are the problem ad the late Wyn Alf Williams would remind us,

Together with the huge increase for Ukip in these areas although many will deny it they have fallen for the whole anti-immigration rhetoric of the far right and their media allies.

My local Spar has been given the bloody Sun away free for months now amounting  to daily propaganda  for the OUT side and relentless blaming of Immigrants.

I became concerned  with the prospect of a leave vote where I live when  those "Friends" on my Facebook  from my youth clearly were going to vote OUT and were enthusiastically towing the BREXIT line of "We must take our country back"  .

It was also evident by the amount of times the Union Flag or the Butchers Apron as it is called by some appeared regularly  on their posts.

Today they will be waving Y Draig Goch and backing  the Welsh side  in Rugby in New Zealand and Football in France,

Unfortunately it stops there  and it seems their allegiance is to long gone Empire and "making Britain Great again".

For those of us who want not only an Independent  but a liberal kinder Wales  its going to be hard going.

Although set in a different context the words of one of my favourite bands the Swedish duo First Aid Kit.



I am in love and I am lost
But I'd rather be
Broken than empty
Oh, I'd rather be
Shattered than hollow
Oh, I'd rather be
By your side

Now I can't believe that it's been five years
Since we both stood here, looking out at this city
With minds so bold and hearts so clear
We said, we are going to get out of here
We said, we are going to get out of here

We are going to get out of here
Run from all the fears
Follow what we once held dear
When will we get out of here?

Now I am tired but resolute
That I'd rather be
Striving than settled
Oh, I'd rather be
Moving than static
Oh, I'd rather be
By your side

Now I can't believe that it will be so long
Till we both are here, looking out at this city
Knowing all we ever wanted is gone

We are going to get out of here
Run from all the fears
Follow what we once held dear
When will we get out of here?

Time, time is a fickle thing
Let's see what it can bring
I cannot leave you behind
Time, time's running out
My hands, oh give me your hands
I cannot leave you behind

We are going to get out of here
Run from all the fears
Follow what we once held dear
When will we get out of here?

We said, we are going to get out of here
We said, we are going to get out of here