Thursday, 9 April 2015

Latest (Delayed) Welsh Poll

There has bee  heen a particularly worrying plll  conducted by you gov for the  he poll was conducted between 26-31 March –Ie before the Leaders debate    an on 2ndApril. d its particularly bad for Plaid

Fortunatley Labour 40% (no change)
Conservative 27% (+2)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Greens 5% (no change)
Others 1% (no change)
 Fortunately or if you are like me find these figures gloomy  Rogerr Sullydone the number crunching  over at Elections in Wales
He writes
Applying the changes since 2020 implied by this poll, using the standard assumption of Uniform National Swing, then the figures from this poll would suggest the following outcome in terms of seats:

Labour: 29 seats (gaining Arfon, Cardiff Central and Cardiff North)
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North but gaining Brecon & Radnor)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (losing Arfon)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (losing Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor)

On the alternative assumption of Ratio Swing, we get the following seat projections:

Labour: 30 seats (gaining Arfon, Cardiff Central, Cardiff North and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr)
Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North but gaining Brecon & Radnor)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (losing Arfon and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, but gaining Ceredigion)
Liberal Democrats: 0 seats (losing Cardiff Central, Brecon & Radnor and Ceredigion)

This as I said is rather gloomy reading  so the hope is that the next Welsh Poll conducted after the leaders debate will be more positive to those of us who are backing Plaid.,

We will see 


8 comments:

  1. I don't find the figure gloomy at all. Labour has time to build on that 40%. Its troops are out every day in large numbers. Carwyn Jones is in Llandudno today to encourage the voters to vote Labour. Plaid does not seem to be trying.

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  2. It's not good practice to dismiss polls we dont like the results of, but evidence on the ground certainly suggests that both plaid and the welsh greens are doing rather better than this poll suggests. Arguably the most reliable pollster around lord ashcroft - who remember called the scottish referendum for the NOs when everyone one else was saying 'too close to call' - has consistently shown that plaid will hold on to its 3 seats in wales.

    And while that in itself might be regarded as a disappointing result by some plaid supporters it's an unfortunate reality of this campaign that parties on the left, like plaid and the greens, could find themselves squeezed as a result of an understandable desire by progressive voters in wales to 'keep the tories out'! A desire that welsh labour would probably be most likely to benefit most from.

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  3. The really irony of this election is that Plaid could go down in the national vote and still win Ynys Môn and Ceredigion (I accept Llanelli would be harder if there is no national upswing). In Ceredigion everything depends on the Liberals doing a lot better than expected elsewhere, and in Môn Labour have spectacularly collapsed at the last two elections and need to recoup very large numbers. I don't dismiss the national vote completely, but a squeeze in the valleys, could have little effect on the ground-war in the Bro. For what it's worth, I'd get every living Plaid activist up to the targets over the next 4 weeks and give Labour their lorry-loads of votes in the valleys. Vote share just isn't the game at play this time. It's seats... and Môn and Ceredigion are there for the taking.

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  4. Yes i agree with anonymous @13.02, Plaid need to put all their available resources into their 6 target seats.

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  5. After the highly effective smear campaign run against Mike Parker and Plaid Cymru yesterday the party will be doing well to keep hold of the 3 seats they've got.

    I share Glyn's pessimism that Plaid have missed the boat after the leader’s debate and Labour has rebounded well and is on course for a big welsh win well which means Wales loses again, god I’m depressed.

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  6. Not sure there has been a Wales only poll since the 'leaders' debate, Wood seemed to do well, if she can do well in the 'challengers' and 'Welsh leaders' debate all is not lost.
    Vote share across Wales for Plaid is not vital, under FPTP Plaid just need to do well in their 6 target seats.

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  7. No idea if Mike Parker will win in Ceredigion or if it will make a difference to voters, but judging by the pro Plaid Cymru article from Labour Party member Martin Shipton in the Western Mail and the Labour supporting IWA blog giving space to a supporter of Mike it looks like Labour have realised the cynical, poisonous smears and character assaination went too far yesterday.

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  8. On Blog Menai
    Huw Thomas advocating that people throw Tippex over cars sporting the English flag.
    This needs to be publicized immediately.
    http://oclmenai.blogspot.com/

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