Saturday, 6 June 2020

We may be approching a tipping point in Welsh Politics.

Welsh Opinions on Independence  may be approaching a tipping point in which the issue of Independence becomes the major issue in Welsh Politics

The latest Opinion Polls show a clear rise in support for  independence  
If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?
Nov 19Jan 20June 20

Whilst this does not match that of Scotland it is beginning to resemble the stage  in Scotland Prior to the SNP winning enough seats in the Scottish Parliament to be able to call a referendum 
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLead
26–27 OctYouGov/Scotsman1,07534%52%12%18%
24–31 AugTNS BMRB/The Herald1,00739%38%23%1%
25–29 AugIpsos MORI70335%60%5%25%
25–31 MayTNS BMRB/The Herald1,02237%45%18%8%
5 May2011 Scottish Parliament election
26–29 AprYouGov/Scotsman28%57%12%29%
Indeed the biggest obstacle to Welsh Independence seenms to be  the fact that Plaid are struggling to be the second party in the Welsh Senedd let alone  have a working majority to call an Independence Referendum.

However it could well be that support for Independence may well rise before support for Plaid Cymru does .

What happens in Scotland may have an domino effect  on Wales if another Indy referendum is called there.

As Dafydd Trystan points out  support for Independence exist in all the major Welsh Parties
As Dafydd says 

"Here we find a more nuanced pattern than the Yes/No Independence question, where it appears that Plaid voters are a little less confident than one might imagine i.e. there are at least some Plaid voters who have suggested that they would vote Yes in a referendum but would place their own views below 70 on a 0-100 scale on how Wales should be governed.
Conversely, the appetite for further constitutional change and greater powers to Wales is even stronger amongst Labour voters than the Yes/No question would suggest, with almost one half of Labour voters placing themselves at 70 or above on this scale".

Inded there may be a small number who calll for Abolition in the beleif that it would accelerate , the call for Independence, 

Plaid in particular are facing the  very real dilemma of finally making Independence their major election platform and not we can run the Assembly/Senedd better than Labour than the Tories .

As a Progressive Socialist I want the argument to go further than just Independence but what sought of Wales will emerge from it.

But if we are to tip the balance to a a surge rather than a large increase in support for Independence  the option must be made a one voters are given at every election .

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