Professor Roger Awan-Scully has provided us with details of The first ever Sky Data poll in Wales
As he says ...
..."Once more, Sky’s figures for all the parties in Wales are pretty close to those produced most recently by YouGov. Notable is that Sky’s numbers also show the long-standing pattern in YouGov Welsh polls – and, indeed, in actual National Assembly election results – of Labour doing consistently rather better on the constituency ballot than the regional list one. However, Sky seem to be showing a slightly better picture for Plaid Cymru than has typically been the case in recent YouGov polls; it may relevant to observe here that when ICM asked about Welsh voting intentions back in February, they found Plaid Cymru support at marginally higher levels than did a YouGov poll conducted just slightly later. For whatever reason, YouGov polls currently appear to be a little less favourable to Plaid Cymru than those of other companies."
There is however one major change in the voting intention for the National Assembly Regional Ballot Voting Intention
| Party | Sky Data | YouGov |
| Labour | 39% | 36% |
| Conservative | 23% | 24% |
| Plaid Cymru | 22% | 20% |
| Abolish the Assembly | 7% | 5% |
| UKIP | 4% | 4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2% | 4% |
| Others | 3% | 6% |
He continues ....
...."Another striking feature of the Sky poll is the very strong showing by the Abolish the Assembly party. The most recent Welsh Political Barometer poll placed them ahead of both UKIP and the Liberal Democrats for the first time ever. Sky’s figures show them doing even better, and consolidating their position as the fourth party on the regional list vote.Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once again assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:"
North Wales: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
Though it maybe that some Ukip supporters have switched to Abolish the Assembly even though the latest Ukip leader Gareth Bennett has announced he wishes to Abolish the Assembly.
| Parties | Additional member system | Total seats | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constituency | Region | |||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | +/− | Seats | +/− | Votes | % | +/− | Seats | +/− | Total | +/− | % | ||||
| Labour | 353,866 | 34.7 |  7.6 | 27 | 1 | 319,196 | 31.5 | 5.4 | 2 |  | 29 | 1 | 48.3 | |||
| Plaid Cymru | 209,376 | 20.5 |  1.3 | 6 | 1 | 211,548 | 20.8 | 2.9 | 6 | | 12 | 1 | 20.0 | |||
| Conservative | 215,597 | 21.1 | 3.9 | 6 | | 190,846 | 18.8 | 3.7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 18.3 | |||
| UKIP | 127,038 | 12.5 | N/A | 0 | | 132,138 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11.7 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 78,165 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 1 | | 65,504 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1.7 | |||
| Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party | — | — | — | — | — | 44,286 | 4.4 | N/A | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 | |||
| Green | 25,202 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0 | | 30,211 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0 | | 0 | | 0.0 | |||
The combined vote in 2016 was 17.4% an in reality it would see a significant drop in both votes and seats for devolution sceptic parties.
I am not academic like Proffesor Awan-Scully and so I can probably speculate , that there is some correlation between those who back Brexit even to the extent of a No-Deal and those who would vote to Abolish the Assembly.
Those who believe that this would end when the predicted effect of leaving the European Union leads to a disaster for the UK economy .
What i suspect will happen is that whilst it may boost the call for Independence , it will also see, increases negativity on reporting on devolution which could see an increase in devolution scepticism.
Don't forget that the UK media whilst admittedly seizing on a existing apathy to European Union, bolster it by given Ukip a huge amount of coverage to the extent that it appeared that Nigel Farage , may have had his own parking space by the BBC.
We can't dismiss what appears to be Nut-Jobs entering the Sennedd , under the Abolish the Assembly banner and if anyone should take it seriously it should be new Welsh First Minister Mark Drayford, who needs to provide a lot more inspiration than his predecessors and ensure that Wales copies Scotland in making our devolved legislature far more relevant to ordinary people.
3 comments:
On these figures welsh kipper leader Gareth Bennett will lose his senedd seat, along with most of his colleagues. Given he shares the same desire to return Wales to direct rule by Westminster perhaps he should defect to the Abolish Wales Party... um I mean the Abolish the Assembly Party.
Before the wales haters get too excited however I would remind them polls a couple of years before the last senedd elections predicted seats for the greens but as know things didn't turn out that way.
It's nearly 3 years till the next senedd election and much can and probably will change between now and then.
These "NUT JOBS" are very dangerous people. The word fascist has been used about them, in that they seek to abolish democracy and replace it with rule by one unelected man. Will they refuse to take their seats?
They would be damned either way. UKIP MEPs are on the payroll of the European parliament an institution they don't believe in. Yet on the other hand if they do refuse to take their seats like Sinn Fein then they would be doing a disservice to those who voted for them. Anti-devolutionists comstantly accuse the Assembly of being obsessed with constitutional matters & will blame the Assembly for all its failures (but not the Labour government), yet they would not be prepared to hold the Welsh Government to account simply because they believe in direct rule.
Either way they will be exposed as hypocrites.
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