Friday, 21 December 2018

Wales back's more powers for the Assembly.

I make this claim because it should be the headline as opposed to what expect as Professor Roger Awan-Scully has continued with his number crunching asking the question 

Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?

He writes 

The voting intention figures produced by the first ever Sky Data Welsh opinion poll have caused quite a stir. The projection from the poll for the Abolish the Assembly (ATA) party to win two regional list seats was the first time ever that the party had been projected to win representation in the institution that it is dedicated to getting rid of.
Amongst the online discussion provoked by this finding has been much speculation that the advance in support for ATA indicates a broader surge in support for getting rid of devolution in Wales. Some were drawing broader conclusions about attitudes to the Assembly being part of the broader ‘populist wave’ that has also been associated with the Brexit vote, the success of Donald Trump, and advances for other populist political forces.
I think much of this discussion has been misplaced. Some people have been making quite dramatic inferential leaps – drawing sweeping conclusions from a very small fragment of evidence. We have seen ATA make some advances in public support as UKIP have faded; the demographics of the support of the two parties are very similar, with their voters disproportionately being older men who have not attended university. We also know from years of detailed evidence that there has remained a constituency of support for abolition of the National Assembly. But a rise in support for ATA does not necessarily indicate that support for their main cause has also risen.
Fortunately, the new Sky poll also included some questions directly relevant to this issue. First, the poll repeated a question that has been used in many previous studies, which asks respondents “Which of these statements comes closest to your view?” and then presents them with a series of options about how Wales might be governed. Below is the pattern of responses that Sky found:
 Professor  Awan-Scully is of course right to point out that we may be making quite dramatic inferential leaps – drawing sweeping conclusions from a very small fragment of evidence, but my experience of the sort of people who voted for Brexit is that they are often the sort of Traditional Labour voters  who drifted to Ukip and tend not to support devolution
Anyway here are the figures  on what sort of Welsh Democracy we want
  • There should be no devolved government in Wales: 18%
  • The National Assembly for Wales should have fewer powers: 4%
  • We should leave things as they are now: 23%
  • The National Assembly for Wales should have more powers: 40%
  • Wales should become independent, separate from the UK: 8%
  • Don’t Know: 7%
The 18% may not leas to people voting for an Abolish the Assembly Party and may be disturbing for those of us who wish to see more devolution , but if we look at historical records from Scotland less than 15 years ago 17% of Scottish voters were opposed to a Scottish Parliament even in 2012 it was 11% it was   and is still around  8%

I don't  remember  any articles on Scotland wanting to Abolish its Parliament  

YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
1999Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%10%
2000Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%55%12%
2001Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%9%
2002Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%52%13%
2003Scottish Social Attitudes Survey26%56%13%
2004Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%45%17%
2005Scottish Social Attitudes Survey35%44%14%
2006Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%54%14%
2007Scottish Social Attitudes Survey24%62%9%
2009Scottish Social Attitudes Survey28%56%8%
2010Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%10%
2011Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%58%6%
2012Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%11%
2013Scottish Social Attitudes Survey29%55%9%
2014Scottish Social Attitudes Survey33%50%7%
2015Scottish Social Attitudes Survey39%49%6%
2016Scottish Social Attitudes Survey46%42%8%
2017Scottish Social Attitudes Survey45%41%8%


The reason was of course is that the debate has moved on from Devolution  amongst our Celtic Cousins beyond devolution. 


There is however a still large Antipathy  and when the question to Welsh Voters were put

Professor Roger Awan-Scully also points to ..

.....However, as well as this question, the Sky Data poll also asked the following question: 
If there were a referendum tomorrow on the issue of the abolition of the National Assembly for Wales, how would you vote?” 
Such questions have been asked only quite rarely, and perhaps provide a more direct test of support for ATA’s core policy objective. This is the pattern of responses that Sky obtained: 
  • I would vote in favour of the National Assembly for Wales being abolished: 22%
  • I would vote against the National Assembly for Wales being abolished: 58%
  • I would not vote: 6%
  • Don’t Know: 14%
Its a pity that we don't have details of what  party people would vote for, against their attitude to devolution 


Professor Roger Awan-Sculle  also points to a
...Sky poll included one other question that is also relevant to the current topic. As well as a hypothetical referendum on abolishing the Assembly, we asked about the polar opposite proposition: independence for Wales. Specifically, respondents were presented with the following question: “If there were a referendum tomorrow on the issue of Wales becoming an independent country, how would you vote?”
Responses to this question were as follows: 
  • I would vote in favour of Wales becoming an independent country: 17%
  • I would vote against Wales becoming an independent country: 67%
  • I would not vote: 4%
  • Don’t Know: 13%
What is remarkable is the large number of Don't Knows to the Questions , may its due to the lack of political coverage  of Welsh Politics.

i don't think that its speculation to claim that many of the Welsh voting public are in the dark over what devolution has meant and the very nature of how much powers we have already and  how that compares to an obviously successful  Scottish Parliament.

As an Independista  whose views that Wales  should be independent  is only 8% as compared with those  18% who  believe there should be no devolved Government , I'm  in a small minority but considering a massive 
40% believe that the  Assembly should have more powers I am on the right side of the argument.




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