A Prosperous Ireland and Third World UK?

 One of the most recent unpleasant statements on the future of Brexit jas been a former cabinet minister has said.Priti Patel, the former international development secretary, that Britain should use the threat of food shortages in Ireland to secure a better Brexit deal from the EU, said the threat to the Irish economy should have been exploited by the UK government during negotiations with Brussels.

As the Independent reports 

Her comments sparked a furious backlash, with other MPs claiming that using food shortages as a bargaining chip was deeply inappropriate, especially given Ireland’s history of famine.
One million people died during the country’s Great Famine between 1845 and 1849.
The row came after a leaked government analysis reportedly suggested that Ireland would suffer greater economic damage than the UK if there is a no-deal Brexit.
Britain leaving the EU without an agreement would see Ireland hit with a 7 per cent drop in GDP, compared with 5 per cent for the UK, according to papers seen by The Times.The documents reportedly suggest that this is because Ireland is “a more open economy than the UK, accounting for 60 per cent of GDP comprised of goods imports and exports, as opposed to 40 per cent for Great Britain”.
Ireland is also heavily dependent on trade with the UK, with Britain accounting for 29.1 per cent of Irish imports and 13.1 per cent of exports.Some 80 per cent of goods transported from Ireland to the EU via road also pass through the UK, according to the documents, meaning any fresh border checks would cause “challenges” and “political and social damage”.
Ms Patel said the government should have used the finding as a tactic during negotiations with the EU.
She said: 

“This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario. Why hasn’t this point been pressed home during the negotiations? There is still time to go back to Brussels and get a better deal.”

This a truly vile comment and saw a backlash from MPs

 Labour’s Lisa Nandy said: 

“Threatening Ireland in this way is as morally reprehensible as it is futile.“Britain should be showing itself to be a dependable neighbour and friend in the future, and it is frightening that Brexiteers are even contemplating a move which could see stopping trade, including food supplies, being weaponised in this way, particularly given the uncomfortable historical echoes.”

SNP MP Stewart McDonald said: “

It’s a particularly cruel and historically illiterate type that would think to threaten a friendly neighbouring country that saw 1 million of its citizens die as a result of famine – and a further 1 million to emigrate – with modern day food shortages. A deeply ugly side of Brexit.”

Even if the UK government analysis is correct Britain and leaving the EU without an agreement would see Ireland hit with a 7 per cent drop in GDP, compared with 5 per cent for the UK, it goes against their  cries of "Project Fear" from Hard Brexiters , and in some way Ms Patel has managed to somehow hide what is a dire forecast for the UK in argument that it should have been as blackmail against the Republic of Ireland.

However I wonder if the analysis of the outcome of a no-deal regarding Ireland misses a major point.

Ireland will remain as a member of the EU and member of a huge trading block who may consider by passing the UK as a trading route to Ireland (with dire consequences for Welsh ports like Holyhead).

Irish shipping companies have making plans to bypass British ports after Brexit and travel direct to the continent to avoid new customs checks and possible tailbacks.

Irish hauliers, who use Britain as a staging post to travel to Europe, have brought forward new direct routes, despite promises by the British government that future trade will be frictionless, as it is now, and agreement on a Brexit transition period prolonging the status quo until the end of 2020.

Michel Barnier, the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, has repeatedly warned that frictionless trade is impossible outside of the bloc's single market and customs union even if there is a UK-EU free trade agreement.

CLdN, a shipping company in Luxembourg, has introduced two "mega vessels" on new direct freight routes between Dublin and the ports of Zeebrugge, Belgium, and Rotterdam, in the Netherlands.

Irish Continental Group will boost weekly freight capacity from 120 to 1,155 lorries between Dublin and the French port of Cherbourg this summer.

Brittany ferries have start a service between Cork and Santander in Spain

"In anticipation of Brexit, the shipping community was looking for alternative solutions," CLdN told the 'Financial Times'. Freight between Ireland and the UK will continue to be busy even if the direct routes do lessen the traffic.

Far from dire consequences for Ireland Brexit could see Ireland cementing itself as a prosperous European Nation , whilst its former colonial masters regress to almost third world status.