Will Westminster allow Indyref2? Sadly I doubt it.

I beginning to doubt whether the British Government will agree to  hold a second referendum on Scotland’s independence.

Its not a scenario I want, but i suspect it will be what happens

Although Nicola Sturgeon the the Scottish First Minister also said 2018 was an ideal time for another attempt because the UK’s post-European Union deal would look a little clearer the UK Prime Minister has two reasons not to do so

The first of course is that Scotland may vote Yes.

A Year before the First Independence referendum the YES campaign were well behind and the then Prime Minister David Cameron was properly  convinced that it would be easily defeated.

2013[edit]

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead
3–10 Dec	TNS BMRB	1,055	27%	41%	33%	14%
6–9 Dec	YouGov/The Times	1,074	36%	55%	10%	19%
29 Nov–5 Dec	Ipsos MORI/STV News	1,006	34%	57%	10%	23%
26 Nov	Release of Scotland's Future
20–27 Nov	TNS BMRB	1,004	26%	42%	32%	16%
12–20 Nov	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,006	38%	47%	15%	9%
23–30 Oct	TNS BMRB	1,010	25%	43%	32%	18%
17–24 Oct	Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland	1,008	37%	45%	17%	8%
25 Sep–2 Oct	TNS BMRB	1,004	25%	44%	31%	19%
13–16 Sep	YouGov/The Times	1,139	32%	52%	13%	20%
9–15 Sep	Ipsos MORI/STV News	1,000	31%	59%	9%	28%
10–13 Sep	ICM/Scotland on Sunday	1,002	32%	49%	19%	17%
30 Aug–5 Sep	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,002	37%	47%	16%	10%
23–28 Aug	Panelbase/Scottish National Party	1,043	44%	43%	13%	1%
21–27 Aug	TNS BMRB	1,017	25%	47%	28%	22%
19–22 Aug	YouGov/Devo Plus	1,171	29%	59%	10%	30%
16 Aug	Angus Reid/Daily Express	549	34%	47%	19%	13%
17–24 July	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,001	37%	46%	17%	9%
10–16 May	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,004	36%	44%	20%	8%
29 Apr–5 May	Ipsos MORI/The Times	1,001	28%	57%	15%	29%
20 Mar–2 Apr	TNS BMRB	1,002	30%	51%	19%	21%
18–22 Mar	Panelbase/Sunday Times	885	36%	46%	18%	10%
20–28 Feb	TNS BMRB/Scottish CND	1,001	33%	52%	15%	19%
4–9 Feb	Ipsos MORI/The Times	1,003	32%	52%	16%	20%
30 Jan–1 Feb	Angus Reid	1,003	32%	47%	20%	15%
11–21 Jan	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,004	34%	47%	19%	13%
3–9 Jan	TNS BMRB	1,012	28%	48%	24%	20%
3–4 Jan	Angus Reid	573	32%	50%	16%	18%

The result however was a lot closer

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Yes	No	Undecided	Lead
18 September 2014	Scottish independence referendum, 2014 results	3,623,344	44.7%	55.3%		10.6%
16–17 Sep	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard	991	45%	50%	5%	5%
16–17 Sep	Survation/Daily Record	1,160	43%	48%	9%	5%
15–17 Sep	YouGov/The Times/The Sun	3,237	45%	49%	6%	4%
15–17 Sep	Panelbase	1,004	45%	50%	5%	5%
15–16 Sep	Ipsos MORI/STV	1,373	47%	49%	5%	2%
12–16 Sep	ICM/The Scotsman	1,175	41%	45%	14%	4%
12–16 Sep	Survation/Daily Mail	1,000	44%	48%	8%	4%
12–15 Sep	Opinium/Telegraph	1,156	43%	47%	8%	4%
10–12 Sep	Survation/Better Together	1,044	42%	49%	9%	7%
9–12 Sep	Panelbase/Sunday Times	1,014	46%	47%	7%	1%

Now the referendum may start with YES and No on equal footing The BMG poll for The Herald indicated 49 percent of Scots support independence with 51 percent opposing it, after "don't know" votes are removed. 

If there was anything like the swing to a YES vote on a par with last time then the referendum will succeed easily.

However the main reason why Scotland may be denied a second referendum  is that it would give legitimacy for a final Brexit vote.

As Wings over Scotland points out the Liberal Democrats call for a second referendum looks hollow when they at the same time reject a second Independence referendum

As Stu puts it to the Scottish LibDem leader  Willie Rennie

1. Having another referendum on EU membership, in which the options would be to leave or remain in the EU, would NOT in fact be a second EU referendum.
2. When people vote on an EU referendum and then see that the consequences might be quite damaging, they should be given the right to change their mind in another referendum.
3. This does NOT apply in the case of a Scottish independence referendum in which people were told (for example) that a No vote would keep them in the EU, and then the consequences turned out to be the opposite.
4. Willie Rennie, we just learned, considers that leaving the EU is a prospect so serious and so damaging that it constitutes grounds to revisit the EU referendum vote. But it’s not serious enough that Scottish people should be given the choice of whether to revisit THEIR choice in the light of accurate information about what a No vote meant in the EU context.
5. In other words, it’s a serious enough matter to overturn a UK-wide vote for, but not serious enough to overturn a Scottish vote for. Even though we’re not aware of a single poll showing that the result of a second EU referendum would be any different now, whereas several polls since the EU referendum, including the most recent one, have shown a majority for Scottish independence.
6. Voters do NOT have the right to change their minds about Scotland staying in the UK within four years of their original vote, even in the light of dramatically changed circumstances, because the indyref was “once in a generation”.
But they DO have the right to change their minds about EU membership within three years of the original vote, even though all that’s happening as a result of the Leave vote is that the UK is leaving the EU, which is what people voted for even though they knew there was no detailed plan.

I agree with Wings over this LibDem double think , but  It seems to me that Mrs May is hardly to give in to another Scottish Referendum if it gives kudos to those calling for some kind of BREXIT affirmation vote.

The Tories have already lost Scotland as a political Party and any revival is due to a Unionist vote bringing in Labour Unionist into their fold.

In allowing a second referendum in Scotland Mrs May must realise that she could see YES vote and the end of he career , would she do this?