Saturday, 11 March 2017

Will Westminster allow Indyref2? Sadly I doubt it.

I beginning to doubt whether the British Government will agree to  hold a second referendum on Scotland’s independence.

Its not a scenario I want, but i suspect it will be what happens

Although Nicola Sturgeon the the Scottish First Minister also said 2018 was an ideal time for another attempt because the UK’s post-European Union deal would look a little clearer the UK Prime Minister has two reasons not to do so

The first of course is that Scotland may vote Yes.

A Year before the First Independence referendum the YES campaign were well behind and the then Prime Minister David Cameron was properly  convinced that it would be easily defeated.


Polling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLead
3–10 DecTNS BMRB1,05527%41%33%14%
6–9 DecYouGov/The Times1,07436%55%10%19%
29 Nov–5 DecIpsos MORI/STV News1,00634%57%10%23%
26 NovRelease of Scotland's Future
20–27 NovTNS BMRB1,00426%42%32%16%
12–20 NovPanelbase/Sunday Times1,00638%47%15%9%
23–30 OctTNS BMRB1,01025%43%32%18%
17–24 OctPanelbase/Wings Over Scotland1,00837%45%17%8%
25 Sep–2 OctTNS BMRB1,00425%44%31%19%
13–16 SepYouGov/The Times1,13932%52%13%20%
9–15 SepIpsos MORI/STV News1,00031%59%9%28%
10–13 SepICM/Scotland on Sunday1,00232%49%19%17%
30 Aug–5 SepPanelbase/Sunday Times1,00237%47%16%10%
23–28 AugPanelbase/Scottish National Party1,04344%43%13%1%
21–27 AugTNS BMRB1,01725%47%28%22%
19–22 AugYouGov/Devo Plus1,17129%59%10%30%
16 AugAngus Reid/Daily Express54934%47%19%13%
17–24 JulyPanelbase/Sunday Times1,00137%46%17%9%
10–16 MayPanelbase/Sunday Times1,00436%44%20%8%
29 Apr–5 MayIpsos MORI/The Times1,00128%57%15%29%
20 Mar–2 AprTNS BMRB1,00230%51%19%21%
18–22 MarPanelbase/Sunday Times88536%46%18%10%
20–28 FebTNS BMRB/Scottish CND1,00133%52%15%19%
4–9 FebIpsos MORI/The Times1,00332%52%16%20%
30 Jan–1 FebAngus Reid1,00332%47%20%15%
11–21 JanPanelbase/Sunday Times1,00434%47%19%13%
3–9 JanTNS BMRB1,01228%48%24%20%
3–4 JanAngus Reid57332%50%16%18%
The result however was a lot closer
Polling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLead
18 September 2014Scottish independence referendum, 2014 results3,623,34444.7%55.3%10.6%
16–17 SepIpsos MORI/Evening Standard99145%50%5%5%
16–17 SepSurvation/Daily Record1,16043%48%9%5%
15–17 SepYouGov/The Times/The Sun3,23745%49%6%4%
15–17 SepPanelbase1,00445%50%5%5%
15–16 SepIpsos MORI/STV1,37347%49%5%2%
12–16 SepICM/The Scotsman1,17541%45%14%4%
12–16 SepSurvation/Daily Mail1,00044%48%8%4%
12–15 SepOpinium/Telegraph1,15643%47%8%4%
10–12 SepSurvation/Better Together1,04442%49%9%7%
9–12 SepPanelbase/Sunday Times1,01446%47%7%1%
Now the referendum may start with YES and No on equal footing The BMG poll for The Herald indicated 49 percent of Scots support independence with 51 percent opposing it, after "don't know" votes are removed. 

If there was anything like the swing to a YES vote on a par with last time then the referendum will succeed easily.

However the main reason why Scotland may be denied a second referendum  is that it would give legitimacy for a final Brexit vote.

As Wings over Scotland points out the Liberal Democrats call for a second referendum looks hollow when they at the same time reject a second Independence referendum

As Stu puts it to the Scottish LibDem leader  Willie Rennie
1. Having another referendum on EU membership, in which the options would be to leave or remain in the EU, would NOT in fact be a second EU referendum.
2. When people vote on an EU referendum and then see that the consequences might be quite damaging, they should be given the right to change their mind in another referendum.
3. This does NOT apply in the case of a Scottish independence referendum in which people were told (for example) that a No vote would keep them in the EU, and then the consequences turned out to be the opposite.
4. Willie Rennie, we just learned, considers that leaving the EU is a prospect so serious and so damaging that it constitutes grounds to revisit the EU referendum vote. But it’s not serious enough that Scottish people should be given the choice of whether to revisit THEIR choice in the light of accurate information about what a No vote meant in the EU context.
5. In other words, it’s a serious enough matter to overturn a UK-wide vote for, but not serious enough to overturn a Scottish vote for. Even though we’re not aware of a single poll showing that the result of a second EU referendum would be any different now, whereas several polls since the EU referendum, including the most recent one, have shown a majority for Scottish independence.
6. Voters do NOT have the right to change their minds about Scotland staying in the UK within four years of their original vote, even in the light of dramatically changed circumstances, because the indyref was “once in a generation”.
But they DO have the right to change their minds about EU membership within three years of the original vote, even though all that’s happening as a result of the Leave vote is that the UK is leaving the EU, which is what people voted for even though they knew there was no detailed plan.

I agree with Wings over this LibDem double think , but  It seems to me that Mrs May is hardly to give in to another Scottish Referendum if it gives kudos to those calling for some kind of BREXIT affirmation vote.

The Tories have already lost Scotland as a political Party and any revival is due to a Unionist vote bringing in Labour Unionist into their fold.

In allowing a second referendum in Scotland Mrs May must realise that she could see YES vote and the end of he career , would she do this?

1 comment:

East Neuker said...

If she refuses to allow a binding referendum the Scottish Government will hold an advisory referendum which she cannot stop, and independence would win that more certainly than if she allowed it. Scotland could appeal to the UN, the EU and and individual countries for recognition. This is in fact the more normal way to become independent, not an agreed referendum. What then for Mrs May? Occupation? Tanks on the streets? Maybe she is that mad..... I'm willing to take the chance.