Cymru, Scotland, and Catalonia.

     

Once again over at Borthlas  John Dixon has written an article I wish I had written  (only better),

Entitled For Wales, don't see Scotland he points out that those who are arguing that somehow there could be a upsurge for Independence in Wales.

He writes (but read the full article)

The result is that the future looks very different for the two nations, particularly in the light of Brexit. For all the optimism of independentistas, it is far from certain that Scotland will make the break and choose a European future rather than an isolationist British one. For their sakes, I hope that they do, even if such a move would leave Wales even more vulnerable to domination from our very much larger eastern neighbour. But we cannot be certain, and should not take the outcome for granted. We can, though, at least consider the impact on Wales of such an outcome.I fear that, to return to my starting point, too many independentistas in Wales are reading across from Scotland to Wales, and hoping (or even assuming) that Scottish independence (and, with that, continued Scottish membership of the EU) will make Welsh independence more attractive and more likely. I can see why that might be the case in the context of continued UK membership of the EU, particularly if other European nations such as Catalunya follow a similar path. The parallel, particularly if those other nations (as seems likely) make a success of their choice, is clear enough. But the parallel in the case of a Wales which would have to face a significant transitional period outside the UK whilst seeking to negotiate entry to the EU as a new member is a great deal less obvious. I’d go so far as to say that it isn’t really a parallel at all; it would be, rather, a unique situation. As a result, people would naturally see it as being a great deal more risky.
The assumption that a Scottish exit from the UK before Brexit happens will lead to a demand for the same thing in Wales is a lazy one. The danger is that, by making such an assumption, and through continued failure to make the case for Wales to take control of her own affairs, the likelier future for Wales in a UK shorn of Scotland and outside the EU is greater integration into England, especially in economic terms. Oh, I’m sure that we’ll be allowed to keep our little Assembly down in Cardiff, but our voice will be heard even less than it is now. The timescale for any change in direction to avert that outcome is short, and the clock is ticking.

There is however another factor that of Catalonia 

Artur Mas, together with two ministers from his former government,has gone on trial for for having organised an informal, non legally binding, consultation on Catalonia’s independence in November 2014. That day is remembered by Catalans as a peaceful, civic and democratic moment when they were able to express their opinion on whether Catalonia should be an independent nation or not. That day, 2.3 million Catalans took part and 89 percent voted for an independent Catalonia.

According to the Spanish government in Madrid, led by Mariano Rajoy´s Popular Party, president Mas and his two ministers committed a crime because there was an order from Spain’s Constitutional Court to stop the consultation process, which was carried out by 40,000 citizen volunteers. Francesc Homs, a former spokesman of the Catalan government who is currently a member of parliament in Madrid, has also gone on trial charged with the same crime as the former president and ministers. As if that weren't enough, the president of the Catalan Parliament, Carme Forcadell, also found out on Thursday that she will go on trial for having allowed a floor debate on committee findings regarding the possibility of Catalonia becoming a free and independent country.

If they are found guilty It will mean that the constitutional road to an Independent Catalonia may be permanently blocked unless there was a change in the Spanish Government.

If it was to happen then a successful Independence referendum in both Scotland and Catalonia could result in a domino effect in Europe as the Basque country and other current autonomous regions follow suit. Where Wales be in the line is open to question but we surly would be close to the front?

However the Spanish Government banning of a Catalonian referendum could be repeated in the UK the Tories look to be in power for decades and if this turns out to be the case and with Labour under Corbyn also hosting an Unionist ideology that the UK parliament may decide not to allow Scotland to conduct a second Independence referendum.

The question may not be whether a second Independence referendum can be one in Scotland but whether the UK government will ever allow it especially if it looks like a YES vote is likely.

Indeed I suspect that the perception was that there was no chance of the first referendum succeeding and that it would kill of Scottish Independence for decades.

If this is so then the suggestion that if the SNP were to win the majority seats in both Westminster and Holyrood next time the option may be an Unilateral Declaration of Independence UDI ( a similar move could be made in Catalonia).

Where that will lead and the response. the UK or Spanish governments could be frighting.