Wednesday, 11 December 2013

Labour set to dominate Welsh Politics for now.

There's a Interesting YouGov pol in the Wasting Mule that shows Labours Hegemony in Wales seemingly unchallenged for the next three elections here

General Election 
Constituency                                        Seats
Lab 46% +10                                          33+7
Con 21% -5                                             3-5
LibDem 12% -12                                     2-1
Plaid % 12% +1                                       2-1                        
Ukip 10%


Constituency                  Region      Seats
Lab 43 +1                       40+3           30 Np change
Con 19-6                       19-3.5          11-3
Plaid 20 +1                      15-3           9-2
Lib Dem 9-2                      9+1           5 - No Change
Ukip 7                                10            5 +5

European Elections

Lab 41
Con 20
Lib Dem  8
Plaid 13
Ukip 13
 Such a result would see Labour taking three of the four Welsh seats – up two from 2009 – with the other going to the Conservatives. Both Plaid Cymru and Ukip would lose the seats they currently hold.
There are some oddities in the Polls  Plaid usually do better in the Regional vote for the Assembly yet although its Constituency vote rose slightly its regional vote fell.
You would expect with 10% of the potential vote in the General Election Ukip would do better than 13% in the European Elections.
But it is clear that "Welsh" Labours policy of do nothing and blame everything on Westminster is working 
The dificultiy for Plaid in particular is to expose this but with papers like the Mule seemingly complacent with Labour here its going to be a struggle.

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