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Wednesday, 23 January 2013
Yougov Poll show Plaid set to keep EU MEP. (Well Maybe)
Normally from a Welsh viewpoint yougov polls are nor particularly relevent
Lumped with the Midlands of England it is very difficult to find out how Wales would vote
The latst figuers for example see a weighted nunber of 314 for the Midlands and and 96 for Wales
Headline Voting Intention
[Excluding Don’t knows and Wouldn’t votes]
Con 34
Lab 31
Lib 10
UKIP 9
Plaid 3
Green 1
BNP 2
Respect 0
Other 0
So it would be wrong to try an extrapolate the Plaid vote from this number but it my be close to the 8-12 Plaid would expect in a UK election
However it is worth noting the intentions of Vhe same voters when asked
If there were an election to the European
Parliament held tomorrow, which party would
you vote for?
Con 33
Lab 29
Lib 14
UKIP 14
Plaid 8
Green 2
BNP 0
Respect 0
Other 0
There a huge percentage swing amongst the 97 Welsh respondents and although as as I said the number is to smal for a scientific evaluation it does appear that Plaid will successively hold their seat in next years European Election and seemingly at the expense of Labour
What Plaid need to think about however is how ro ge those who switch to them in European Elections to remain with the party in other elections.
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6 comments:
"There a huge percentage swing amongst the 97 Welsh respondents and although as as I said the number is to smal for a scientific evaluation it does appear that Plaid will successively hold their seat in next years European Election and seemingly at the expense of Labour"
It doesn't appear so at all. It is impossible to tell because of the size of the sample.
But actually it's possible to estimate what will happen in Wales by looking at the 09 results and elections since.
This time around UKIP will take loads of votes off the Tories (even in Wales) and vie with Plaid for 3rd place. Some of Plaid's 09 support has already gone to Labour.
My prediction compared to 2009 (still over a year to go) is-
Labour- 40% (last election 20.3%)
Tories- 16% (21.2%)
Plaid- 15% (18.5%)
UKIP- 15% (12.6%)
Lib Dems- 7% (10.%)
Greens- 6% (5.6%)
Then various others.
If you were looking for bright spots for Plaid I would look at the July 2012 Yougov Wales poll which has them on 17% of Assembly constituency vote. Replicating that in a Euro election is possible and could see Plaid finish 2nd on a good day, if UKIP take enough support from the Tories.
Plaid will basically keep their seat but they simply aren't part of the pissed off/protest wave of politics at the European level right now.
I'm confused, from the figures you quote it looks like Labour, Conservatives , Lib Dem's and UKIP get 1 each with Plaid coming 5th with nothing.
This really highlights Plaid's decline over the last decade. 10 years ago they had 2 MEP's and had come within a few percent of beating Labour to come first in the 199 Euro election. They also had 4 MP's and more AM's than the Tories and Lib Dems combined.
Now thay have one 1 MEP having come 3rd in the last euro elections, and there is a seriouc chance that they will come 5th next time, thei ambition is to come first. They also have 3 MP's and fewer AM's than the Tories.
Where did it all go wrong for them?
Anon 18:50
First Plaid lost its 2nd MEP largely because the number was reduced from 5 - 4
Secondly I'm basing my figures the 8 % in the Midland region where Welsh voters are about a 3rd
As I said the number of 96 is far to small to be scientific but I just thought the differences between voting intentions of 33% for Westminster and 8% for Europe interesting.
"Now thay have one 1 MEP having come 3rd in the last euro elections, and there is a seriouc chance that they will come 5th next time, thei ambition is to come first. They also have 3 MP's and fewer AM's than the Tories.
Where did it all go wrong for them?"
Quite easy to see, in the decade 99-09 Plaid at times was a credible party for disllusioned Labour voters to support.
From 2010 onwards we've had a Tory UK Government and Labour voters aren't disillusioned anymore. So party support is back down to 'normal' levels.
There's a bit more to it than that, especially looking at the role the Lib Dems played in the 2010 Westminster election, and Plaid's inability to collect protest votes in 2009, but i've outlined the basic reason.
@Glyn If Wales till had 5 seats Plaid may have kept their second seat in 2004, but would have lost it to the Lib Dems in 2009 based on the votescast.
@Anon 14:44 Plaid's decline started long before the 2010 election, even in 2007 at the height of disillusion with the Labour govt in London they couldnt match their vote from 1999, and they had done even worse in 2003.
You're not wrong Anon 10:37, that's why I said 'at times'. There were alot of key moments where the Lib Dems picked up disillusioned Labour voters instead. Especially in places like Cardiff, Swansea and Newport (or Wrexham) where Plaid doesn't appeal for cultural reasons (which to be fair are pretty hard to shift). Basically, most of urban Wales outside of the valleys. 1999 was not one of those moments though.
What seems to be the case (and i'm not an expert) is that there was a blip in 1999 followed by Plaid support returning to 'normal' levels.
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